NB Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to live (non-dead rubber) Tests not involving minnows played in the last 10 years.
Stumps: England 58/3 (Strauss 32, Trott 8), lead by 230 runs
Excluding those who made fewer than 300 without being bowled out, the average score made by teams in the second innings after reaching 45-70 for the loss of three wickets is 213. Only a third (33/99) of the teams made more than the higher spread of 239, with nearly half (48/99) failing to reach 200. England average 229 from 17 games in similar positions, reaching 240 in eight of them. The average score made against Australia is only 203 (216 without Warne and McGrath) with just six sides making it past 239.
In the last 30 years, teams leading by 200-260 with three wickets down in the third innings of a match — in games where the first two innings have totalled fewer than 550 runs — have gone on to win 70% of the time (W32-D11-L3), including a W12-D1-L1 record for the batting side in the last 10 years.
Strauss averages 72.9 in the second innings once in the thirties (69.8 runs per innings) but has failed to make it to 60 in 15 of his previous 24 such times at the crease. However, of the nine times he has got to 60, he has gone on to reach three figures seven times (average ton-ups of 7.4) as well as making an unbeaten 94.
Match odds: England 1.3, Australia 5.0, Draw 24 (Betfair)
England 2nd Innings Runs 229-239 (SI)
England 225 Runs or more 2.0 (Betfair)
Strauss Runs 64-69 (SI)
Trott Runs 38-42 (SI)
Tea: Australia 133/8 (Siddle 10, Clark 1), England 332
Only 40 teams have been 120-145 for eight in their first innings over the last 10 years, making an average score of 165. Half of the teams made fewer than the lower spread of 158 with only a third of them making more than 163. Australia have just one entry — putting on 66 for the ninth wicket at Trent Bridge in 2001 to make 190 although that was with Gilchrist still at the crease. England have been bowling in 11 of the 40, allowing an average score of 163 and keeping their opponents under 158 in seven of them.
There have been 23 Tests in the last 30 years with a team 175-225 runs behind with two wickets remaining in the second innings of the match, having allowed a total of 400 or fewer in the first innings. The bowling team won 19 of those 23 games, with one win for the team batting second and three draws.
Match odds: England 1.34, Australia 5.0, Draw 16.5 (Betfair)
Australia 1st Innings Runs 158-163 (SI)
Australia 175 Runs or more 2.0 (Betfair)
Siddle Runs 19-22 (SI)
Clark Runs 8-11 (SI)
Lunch: Australia 61/0 (Watson 30, Katich 26), England 332
The average score made by teams on 50-70 without loss in their first innings is 411 from 200 instances over the last 10 years, with roughly 40% (81/200) going past the higher spread of 431. Australia average 433 from 37 innings where they have had a first wicket partnership of at least 50, making in excess of 431 a little more than half of the time (19/37). The average score by teams in this position against England is 444, although fewer than half (14/29) made more than 431.
There have been 24 matches in the last 10 years in which the side batting second has made at least 50 before losing their first wicket, in reply to a first innings score of 280-380. Their average score is 396, with only a third of them making more than 431. The teams batting second won just under half of the matches, losing only four (W11-D9-L4).
In his career, Simon Katich averages 68.8 in the first innings of Tests once on 25 or more, reaching his half-century a little more than half (13/24) of the time and going past 72 in nine of his previous 24 innings. Since his return to the side in 2008, he averages 71.8 in both innings once past 25 (69.8 in the first), but has made 72 or more in fewer than a third (7/22) of them — although six of those seven were centuries.
Match odds: England 4.5, Australia 1.82, Draw 4.3 (Betfair)
Australia 1st Innings Runs 416-431 (SI)
Australia 450 Runs or more 2.33 (Betfair)
Watson Runs 67-72 (SI)
Katich Runs 67-72 (SI)