Ana Ivanovic (4.15) v Kim Clijsters (1.3)
Ivanovic and Clijsters meet for the second time, with the Belgian having won for the loss of just three games when they first played three and a half years ago.
The Serb has played well here this week having been a game away from a quick exit in round one, but this will be her first big test since that point as she looks to make her first final for 18 months. To do that she’s going to have to improve her record against current top 10 players having won just three of her last 12 such completed matches, including none of six on hard courts. Furthermore, five of those six hard defeats were in straight sets. Furthermore, before beating Azarenka in the first round Ivanovic had lost all nine of her completed career matches when longer than 3.0 to win with eight straight set defeats.
Clijsters missed beating the recommended handicap yesterday as she managed to take just one of 10 break point opportunities in the first set. The US Open champion has won 24 of her last 26 matches on outdoor hard courts, including 19 2-0 victories, and none of her four defeats on this surface since returning have been to a non-seed. She’s also won nine of her last 10 outdoor hard matches against players ranked 26-100, with eight straight set wins.
Recommendation: Clijsters to win 2-0 at 1.86, Betfair
Rafael Nadal (1.72) v Andy Murray (2.4)
The champion the last time they came to Toronto faces the Rogers Cup holder and it is the Spaniard who has held the upper hand in their previous meetings, winning eight of 12 matches including three of the last four with Murray’s success coming when Nadal retired in the Australian Open semi-finals earlier this year.
Nadal has won 34 of his last 35 matches and is bidding to become the first person in history to win four consecutive Masters titles. Moreover, he’s won his last eight matches against current top 10 players for the loss of just one set and four of his six matches this year when 1.5-2.0 to win, with four of those matches also featuring a tie-break.
Murray played the best match of his year in the previous round and the lack of a coach doesn’t appear to be hurting him having also been a point away from the LA title in his previous tournament. Before beating Nalbandian in the previous round Murray had lost six straight matches when 2.0-2.5 to win, including four consecutive straight set defeats. Furthermore, since beating Nadal in Australia Murray has lost four of five matches against current top 10 players – all in straight sets – with the only one not including at least one tie-break being his only clay match in the sample.
Recommendation: Nadal to win at 1.72, Sporting Bet
Maria Sharapova (1.28) v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (4.17)
Sharapova has won 22 of her last 26 matches including eight of nine on hard courts. Furthermore, she’s won 16 of her last 19 hard court matches against current top 25 ranked players and 13 of 15 matches against Russians since 2009. Moreover, she’s won all 10 of her matches since May when 1.1-1.4 to win, with eight 2-0 wins in the last nine.
After winning Istanbul, Pavlyuchenkova has now won nine straight matches; including beating seeds in each of her last three matches. However, after back-to-back three-setters in extreme heat she’s sure to be feeling fatigued today. With Sharapova in top-10 form right now it’s worth noting that the teenager has lost seven of nine matches against current top-10 players this year, with her wins coming here against Dementieva and earlier in the year over Schiavone, and six of her defeats were in straight sets. Furthermore, she’s lost nine of 10 matches since 2009 when 3.0-6.0 to win, with all nine defeats coming in straight sets and seven by five or more games.
Recommendation: Sharapova to win 2-0 at 1.84, Betfair
Roger Federer (1.72) v Novak Djokovic (2.31)
Federer leads the overall head-to-head by nine wins to five, although the last 10 have been split evenly with Djokovic winning the most recent meeting in Basle last November. Furthermore, Djokovic has won four of their last five completed matches outside of Grand Slams.
Federer was near his best in his opening set against Berdych but the fact that even after that start he allowed the Czech back to a position where he served for the match in the third set has got to be a concern for the Swiss. Moreover, since 2009 Federer has lost 10 of 17 hard court matches against current top 10 players away from the Slams, although nine of these matches featured at least one tie-break.
Djokovic has looked increasingly good this week and has won his last five matches without dropping a set. Djokovic is still looking for a first tour win this year over a current top 10 player having lost four in a row having won seven of his nine such matches between the US Open and the end of last year. However, five of his last six tour matches against current top-10 players have featured at least one tie-break and when he won the Rogers Cup in 2007 he won two breakers in the final against Federer.
The Serb has won 11 of his last 17 semi-finals with nine of the 14 he’s played since 2009 not on clay featuring at least one tie-break.
Recommendation: Djokovic win at 2.38, Betfair