Andy Murray (1.91) v Roger Federer (2.1)

After both players have struggled since facing off in the Australian Open Murray and Federer have produced their best tennis of 2010 this week. After Murray enjoyed a period of domination over the Swiss – winning five consecutive times they met after losing the US Open final in 2008 – he will hope that the first meeting since Melbourne can see him break Federer’s current three-match winning streak. Overall Murray leads by seven wins to five, although Federer has won the opening set in eight of the last 10 after serving first in nine. Furthermore, seven of their last eight meetings in best-of-three set matches have gone to a third set.

Having lost six of his last seven matches against the current top five players Murray looked at his very best in beating Nadal in the semis, having played a brilliant match against Nalbandian in the round before. Back to last year’s Rogers Cup final Murray has gone to a third set in five of eight best-of-three matches against current top 10 players. Despite losing both finals he’s played this year the Scot has won 11 of 15 finals since 2008 and while only one of his five Masters finals has gone to a third set, three have featured at least one tie-break.

Federer has started his last two matches in vintage form before allowing his opponents a chance to come back into the match in the second and third sets. The Swiss Maestro has lost six of 11 matches against current top 10 players this year but has won the first set in six, while six of the matches have featured at least one set. Furthermore, seven of those 10 matches not including on clay against Nadal were 1-1 after two sets. Impressively, Federer has won 12 of 13 outdoor hard Masters Finals he’s played since 2003, including twice here in Toronto.

There have been 13 Rogers Cup finals since 1990 where one player had gone to three sets in their semi and the other had won in straight sets, with the former winning seven times and winning the first set seven times, although six matches went to a final set. In fact 12 of the last 20 Rogers Cup finals have gone to a deciding set, while 11 have had fewer than 10 games in the first set. Furthermore, seven of nine finals between two seeds have gone the distance, with five being won by the player that lost the opening set.

Recommendation: Split stake – Three sets at 2.38, Boyles
                                                           Set Exacta – Murray 2-1 LWW at 8.5, Sky Bet

Kim Clijsters (1.73) v Maria Sharapova (2.3)

This is their first meeting since Clijsters’ comeback although Sharapova won their last three Tour meetings in 2006 and 2007, while Clijsters leads 4-3 overall. Six of their last seven matches were settled in straight sets, with 23 or fewer games.

Clijsters has won six of seven Premier hard court finals since 2003 with just one going to a third set, including losing just three games to Venus Williams in Miami this year. Furthermore, she’s won 11 of her last 12 hard court matches against current top 25 ranked players with 10 having fewer than 24 games – both matches that had that many games were against Henin.

Sharapova’s current form is superb and this is her second successive finals since moving onto hard courts. She’s won five of her last nine completed Premier finals matches and while four have gone to a third set seven have had fewer than 24 games. The Russian has won nine of 11 completed hard matches against current top 10 players since 2009 with seven settled in straight sets and eight with fewer than 24 games.

11 of the 13 Rogers Cup finals since 1997 (usually the first Premier event after Wimbledon in this period) have been settled in straight sets, including seven of nine clashes between two seeds.

Recommendation: Under 23.5 games at 1.90, BWin