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Masters Tennis QF Preview

After a fourth profitable day we're now 50% up for the week and we highlight four more matches today, including the latest Berdych-Federer clash.

Roger Federer

 

David Nalbandian (1.83) v Andy Murray (2.14) Fri 18:00

Nalbandian has won both of their previous meetings and having won his last 11 matches comes into today’s game in some of the form of his life. Those wins have not been against poor players either as seven have been against top 25 opponents and five top 15. Furthermore, he’s won seven of his last 10 matches when 1.7-2.0 to win, including all four since returning from injury this season, and has won eight of 13 hard court matches against current top 10 players since 2008 with three of those defeats against Federer or Nadal.

Murray survived a mid-match loss of concentration against Monfils and will have to improve to win today. However, the Scot has lost his last five matches when 2.0-2.4 to win, with four defeats in straight sets, and after a couple of years of Masters success he’s struggled in the 1000 tournaments in the past year as he’s lost seven of 18 matches back to Paris last November and failed to progress past the quarters in any of the past seven Masters.

Whilst not a big sample, top eight seeds that won their previous match in three sets against non-seeds that beat a seed in their previous match have won only five of 10 matches at the Rogers Cup since 1990 in the quarter-finals or beyond.

Recommendation: Nalbandian to win at 1.96, Betfair


Kim Clijsters (1.36) v Flavia Pennetta (3.75) Fri 19:30

These two have met only once before, at the 2005 Rogers Cup when Pennetta won just one game in their quarter-final clash.

Clijsters made her comeback here a year ago and reached the quarter-finals. She won the last Premier event she played, in Miami, and has won three of her last five outdoor hard court tournaments going back to last year’s US Open. Moreover, she’s won nine of 10 hard court matches against players currently ranked 11-25 since her comeback with six wins by five or more games. Furthermore, she’s won all five of her matches when 1.25-1.45 to win in this time and all by six or more games.

Pennetta has played 12 hard court matches against current top-tenners since 2009 and has an excellent record of eight wins to four losses, whilst 10 of the matches have been settled in straight sets. However, she’s lost seven of her last 10 matches against current top 25 ranked players with five 2-0 defeats and six by five or more games. In addition, eight of Pennetta’s nine losses since the start of April have been in straight sets with seven by five or more games.

Since 2000, top four seeds have won 10 of 12 quarter-final and semi-final matches against 9-16 seeds with six 2-0 wins and seven by five or more games.

Recommendation: Clijsters to win -4.5 games at 2.16, Betfair


Tomas Berdych (3.25) v Roger Federer (1.4) Sat 00:00

After beating Federer in Miami and then Wimbledon this year Berdych will be looking to continue his domination over the former World Number One. Federer has won four of their six meetings since 2007 with five of the matches featuring at least one tie-break and the last three have seen the scores level after the first two sets. Although four of those six matches were best-of-five sets, had they been two-out-of-three five would have beaten the total games line for this match of 22.5 games.

The Czech received treatment for a thigh injury yesterday but rarely looked in any discomfort and should be ok for today’s match. Berdych has risen up the rankings this year after strong displays in Indian Wells, Miami, Roland Garros and Wimbledon as he’s won six of eight matches against current top 10 players not on clay (both defeats to Nadal), with four of those matches featured at least one tie-break. Also, nine of his last 13 best-of-three set matches have gone to a decider.

Federer has lost five of eight matches this year against current top 10 players (W3-L3 not on clay) and five of the matches would have had at least 23 games if played as best-of-three sets. The Swiss Maestro has also lost five of seven matches on hard courts since 2009 when 1.3-1.5 to win with five of the matches seeing the opening two sets split.

Since 1990, 21/47 Rogers Cup matches between two top-eight seeds have gone to a third set with 57% featuring at least 23 games. Also 51% featured at least one tie-break including 16/26 quarter-final matches.

Recommendation: Split Stake - Three Sets at 2.8, Sporting Bet
                                                           Tie-break in match – Yes at 2.25, Bet365


Maria Sharapova (1.36) v Marion Bartoli (3.7) Sat 00:00

These two have met three times before – although not for over three years – with Sharapova winning in straight sets each time, and always by at least seven clear games.

Sharapova survived a tough opening match against Kuznetsova to roll through Petkovic and the in-form Radwanska. The Russian has won 15 of 18 hard court matches against current top 25 ranked players in the past 12 months, with seven 2-0 wins in the 17 completed matches and eight wins by five or more games. Also, nine of these 17 matches had fewer than 10 games in the first set.

Bartoli has lost nine of 13 matches this year against current top 25 ranked players with five defeats in straight sets and seven by five or more games. Moreover, given Sharapova’s current level it is worth noting that Bartoli has lost seven of her nine matches against current top 10 players in the past 12 months including six defeats in straight sets and all seven by five or more games. Furthermore, she’s lost all six matches since 2008 on hard courts when she’s been 3.0-4.5 to win with five defeats in straight sets and all by five or more games with five by six clear.

Since 1997, seeds 5-12 have won six of nine Rogers Cup matches against 13-16 seeds, with all six wins in straight sets and five by five or more games.

Recommendation: Sharapova to win -4.5 games at 2.4, Betfair
 

 
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