Dubai World Championship, Earth Course

Round Two Update

Lee Westwood is in pole position to claim both the Dubai World Championship and the Order of Merit on Sunday after holing a long putt on the last. That extended his lead to two shots over a group of six players including Padraig Harrington, Rory McIlroy and Camilo Villegas —with Sergio Garcia and Geoff Ogilvy three and four shots off the pace, respectively. Not for the first time this year, Harrington had a close encounter with the water in the closing stages of a round, becoming one of nine plays to double the 620-yard 18th already this week. Indeed, the 15th notwithstanding (playing as the third-easiest hole on the course) Greg Norman’s “Golden mile of golf” has been baring its teeth with the final three holes producing 16 double bogeys — more than the other 15 holes combined — and playing as the 7th, 3rd and hardest holes on the course through two rounds.

1 Westwood (-9)

Westwood has had just two 36-hole leads on either the European or PGA Tours over the last five years, imploding spectacularly at the Players Championship in 2005 (shooting 80 in round three to end in a share of 22nd) and, more recently, losing in a playoff to Gonzalo Fernández-Castaño at last year’s British Masters. The record of players ranked four to 10 in the world when leading after two rounds over the last five years suggests some value in Westwood’s 4.0 price though, with 16 of 38 players (42%) converting a two-round lead into a win on the Euro or PGA Tours.

T2 Harrington, McIlroy, Villegas, Allenby, Oosthuizen, McGowan (-7)

Not particularly surprisingly, Harrington has the best record of this group when similarly placed (0-4 shots off the lead and in the top 10), winning three times in 21 attempts over the last five years and finishing in the top five just under half (10/21) of the time. McGowan is the only other of the group to have won from this situation in that time and has two other top fives from his nine showings.

The next two highest-ranked players have underperformed somewhat in positions such as these, with McIlroy managing just two top-fives in six attempts and Villegas three in 12. Compare this with a 41% top-five rate by all players ranked 11-25 over the last five years and 9.4% wins — better than Harrington’s (4-10) group’s 7.4%. 

Allenby is not renowned for his weekend play but has finished in the place money nine times in 22 attempts from positions such as these, while Oosthuizen has four top-five finishes in 12 tournaments having got to a similar spot.

T8 Garcia, Liang, Cabrera-Bello, Aiken (-6)

As with the second-placed group, the biggest name has the best history in this bunch of players when lying 6th-15th and between one and five shots back after 36 holes. Sergio has not won in 23 attempts over the last five years from this position but has finished in the top five nearly half (11/23) of the time. This is quite a bit better than the average performance of players ranked 4-10 in the world (4% wins, 34% top fives), although even that top-five rate would represent value given his 3.6 price for a place.

Of the others in this group Cabrera-Bello has been in this position most often on either of the main tours in the last five years but that is still only six times — finishing fifth or better in two of them. All players ranked 101-200 have done so just under 20% of the time in that period, faring slightly better than those of Liang’s rank (61-100).

T12 Ogilvy, Noren, Edfors (-5)

Geoff Ogilvy’s record over the last five years having got himself in to this sort of position (6th-20th and two to six shots back) is very poor, managing just one top-five finish in 23 competitions over the last five years on the European and PGA Tours. By contrast, Alex Noren has done exceptionally well when similarly placed, recording a win and four other top-five finishes in 12 such tournaments — only Westwood, Garcia and Harrington have better top0-five rates from their respective positions over this period.

More generally, players ranked 11-25 have finished in the top five from this position 24% of the time in the last five years, with those ranked similarly to Noren (61-100) and Edfors (101-200) managing it in 17% and 15% of their events, respectively.

T15 Goosen, Molinari, Jiménez, Maybin, Strange (-4)

Molinari has fared the best of this group over the last five years when 11th-20th and three to seven shots off the pace after two rounds, climbing in to the top five by tournament’s end five times out of 16 and finishing in the top 10 over half (9/16) of the time. Goosen (4/21 top fives & seven top 10s) and Jiménez (2/13 and four) do not have especially impressive figures but they are in keeping with those of a similar rank to them, with 11-25 ranked players having 21% and 37% top-five and top-10 rates with those ranked 26-60 owning 16% and 32% marks. The figures for those ranked similarly to Maybin and Strange (101-200) are 10% and 23%, respectively.

Strong Recommendations 

• Sergio Garcia top-five finish at 3.6

Recommendations

• Lee Westwood to win at 4.0
• Alex Noren top-five finish at 11.0