Golf / Preview / Dubai World Championship

Dubai World Championship

After more than a year, the Race is finally over. A second Dubai win of the year for Rory McIlroy would close out his first Order of Merit title.

Retief Goosen


 

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Dubai World Championship, Earth Course

Introduction

20 years after the first European Tour tournament was held in the Middle East, Dubai will this year play host to the tour’s flagship event and the climax to the season, the Dubai World Championship. Just over a year ago, Ross Fisher was in the opening group that teed off at the 2009 HSBC Champions, the opening event in the first Race to Dubai. Going into this, the final event, the Englishman is one of four players who can claim the 2009 Order of Merit, although unlike leaders Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer, a win will not guarantee him the end of year crown.

The field of 58 (Paul Casey and Anthony Kim are the only of the 60 qualifiers not to play) should face a stiff challenge from Greg Norman’s new Earth Course which closes with “a golden mile of golf”, the final four holes measuring 1702 yards — including an island green on the 17th and a 620-yard par 5 with a creek splitting the middle of the fairway on the last.

 

 

Key Stats

  • In the last five years, 10 of the 14 winners of the European Tour events held in the Middle East have been amongst the 10 best-ranked players in the field and only one has not been in the top 20.
  • 16 of the 22 winners of the end-of-season event on the European Tour had had at least one top-five and one other top-10 finish in the eight weeks prior to their victory.
  • 14 of those 22 winners had won another event within the last year.
  • Ernie Els has finished in the top three of 11 of the 16 European Tour events in which he has played in the Middle East.

 

 

Current form

Rory McIlroy’s run of three top-five finishes in his last four events — including fourth and second against strong fields in the last two weeks — has seen him reclaim top spot from Lee Westwood in the money list. It has also established him as the clear favourite to claim both trophies this weekend — something that has happened three times before (Justin Rose in 2007, Colin Montgomerie in 1993 and Ronan Rafferty in 1989) in the 21 years since the Volvo Masters became the feature end-of-year event on the European Tour in 1988.

This being a new tournament on a new course, there is no direct basis of comparison for establishing McIlroy’s chances of joining that list. Instead we have looked at both the history of the Volvo Masters and that of the other European Tour events that have been held in the Middle East (the Dubai Desert Classic, the Qatar Masters and the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship) to attempt to find a winner.

None of the winners of the old end-of-year event, the Volvo Masters, came in to the tournament in the sort of form that McIlroy is showing, with only six of them — and just three of the last 16 — having placed in the top five in their previous event, with as many finishing outside the top 20 (nine) in their last outing prior to their win as recording a top 10. Having said that, the majority (12 of 21) that had played within the last four weeks had managed at least one top 10 in that time — including 11 of the 14 winners that had played twice or more. The best-ranked players in this field who have not had a top 10 in the last four weeks, having played at least twice are: Padraig Harrington, Oliver Wilson, Miguel Angel Jiménez, Thongchai Jaidee and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castaño.

None of the 22 winners of the Volvo Masters had won in the eight weeks prior to the event, although roughly two thirds (14/22) of them had recorded at least one top-five finish in that time, just two had not had a top 10 and nearly three quarters (16/22) had had multiple top-10s. 17 players this week have had a top-five — but not a win — and at least one other top-20 finish in the last eight weeks, with the worst ranked being: David Drysdale, Raphaël Jacquelin, Wen-chong Liang, Charl Schwartzel and Alex Noren. 

Looking at longer-term form, the majority of the winners (14/22) had also won within the last year, all but two had recorded three or more top-five finishes and 17 of the 22 had had at least 10 top 20s. Nine players in this field have done all of those in the past year: Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Ian Poulter, Rory McIlroy, Retief Goosen, Simon Dyson, Anders Hansen, Thongchai Jaidee and Rafael Cabrera-Bello.

The timing of the tournaments previously held in the Middle East (all in January-March) means the players often had not played a lot of events in the weeks prior to the tournament. Of the 26 winners (out of 31 events) in the last 15 years who had played at least once in the prior four weeks, 12 had had a top 10 as their most recent finish and 16 had had a top 20 in one of their last two (within the last four weeks). 

Going back further, 19 of the 28 winners who had played within the last 12 weeks had had at least one top-10 finish — including the last 15 winners of European Tour events in the Middle East (10/15 had had at least one top five). In fact, since 2005, the winners of these events have been in particularly good form, with seven of the nine that had played in at least four tournaments over their past 12 weeks recording multiple top-five finishes in that time. There are a dozen players in the field with multiple top-five finishes over the last 12 weeks: Padraig Harrington, Ian Poulter, Rory McIlroy, Ernie Els, Francesco Molinari, Søren Hansen, Simon Dyson, Anders Hansen, Peter Hanson, Alex Noren, Ross McGowan and Rafael Cabrera-Bello. 

This partly reflects the calibre of winner — Rory McIlroy was the worst-ranked of those nine (14th best world ranking within the field) when he won earlier this year at the Dubai Desert Classic. Indeed, over the last five years, only four of the 14 winners of these tournaments has not been amongst the 10 best-ranked players in the field, with Alvaro Quiros (28th when winning in Qatar this year) the only one not in the top 20. Of the above list, the first four are amongst the top-10 ranked players in the field, with the last five outside the top 20.

A good proportion (14, 45%) of the winners of a European Tour event held in the Middle East over the last 15 years had recorded a win within the last year, including nine of the 14 in the last five years. Just over two thirds (21/31) had had five or more top 10s in that time, while 18 had had at least 10 top-20 finishes — Alvaro Quiros is the only one of the 14 winners in the last five years not to do so. 10 of this field have managed all three of those: Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Poulter, McIlroy, Geoff Ogilvy, Retief Goosen, Dyson, Anders Hansen, Thongchai Jaidee and Cabrera-Bello.

 

Tournament form

Again, as there is no actual history of the course or tournament to go on, we have to look elsewhere for tournament form and we have looked at players’ records in similar conditions (in the Middle East) and in fields of similar quality (on the European and PGA Tours). 

Ernie Els owns a club in Dubai, and beyond the obvious financial motivations for his patronage, it is easy to see why he has an attachment to the region given his success in tournaments held here. In his 16 appearances in the three afore-mentioned European Tour events held in the Middle East, the Big Easy has finished in the top three on 11 occasions (four wins), averaging more than three (3.12) shots per round better than the field average in that time — only Martin Kaymer (2.28) and Adam Scott (2.07) are also above two amongst this week’s field.

Just two of the winners of the 31 tournaments held in the Middle East over the last 15 years were making their first appearance in a European Tour event in the region, with roughly three quarters (23) of the winners having played in at least four such events previously. Of those that had played in at least four tournaments before, the majority (13/23) had finished in the place money before (seven of whom were previous winners) — including 10 of the last 11 such champions (6/10 had won before). The best-ranked players who are yet to record a top-five finish in the region having had at least four attempts are: Ian Poulter, Francesco Molinari, Oliver Wilson, Søren Hansen and Simon Dyson.

The player in this week’s field who has had the most success in recent times in tournaments with similar strength fields is Martin Kaymer. Dating back to the 2007 Volvo Masters two years ago, the German has played in 17 events similar to this one in terms of quality of field (on either the European or PGA Tours), finishing outside the top 20 only twice. He has finished in the top 10 in well over half (10) of the tournaments, recording three wins and four more second places (including a win and two seconds in his four such events in the Middle East).

Another player who has been consistently successful in similar events is Luke Donald, finishing outside the top 25 in just six of his 44 such tournaments over the last five years. He has placed in the top 10 in half of them, including in seven of 15 over the last two years and in four of nine in 2009. It is worth noting that, while Donald has done well (eight top 25s and four top 10s in nine events) this year, he has tended to struggle at the start of the week before improving as the tournament progresses. He has shot worse than the field average in five of his nine opening rounds in similar events this year (including two of his four top-10 finishes), compared to only three — all of which were on Sunday — of his 27 rounds thereafter, so he could be worth monitoring for in-running trading.

At the other end of the spectrum, there are 10 players in the field with no top-10 finishes in events with similar fields this year, including most notably, Ernie Els. Having said that, Els’s record over the longer term in comparable events is still very strong (top 10s in 15 of 32 since making his return from surgery in 2006) and only two of his 10 tournaments this year were played in the last six months (13th at the Scottish Open and 26th at the Dunhill Links).

 

Winner/Each-way

Using all of the considerations mentioned above — the Volvo Masters, other European Tour events held in the Middle East and players’ results in events with similar strength fields — produces two names that stand out from the rest. Disappointingly, from a value standpoint at least, they are the two favourites: Rory McIlroy (10.0) and Martin Kaymer (15.0). 

Over the last two years, the pair have played in similar tournaments (in terms of field strength) together 13 times, with one of the two finishing in the top two in seven of them. Head-to-head it is the German who has had the better of things, finishing above McIlroy in nine of the 13, although it is even (three apiece) in 2009. Kaymer gets the nod from us though, owing to his results in similar fields to this (two wins and three other top fives in nine events this year to McIlroy’s one and four in 12) and in the Middle East (four top-fives in seven events to McIlroy’s two in eight).

The next two shortest-priced players (Westwood and Els) also show up well but our pick of the rest of the field would be Retief Goosen (26.0) and Peter Hanson (67.0). They — along with Sergio Garcia — are the only players other than McIlroy and Kaymer with three top-five and five top-10 finishes in similar tournaments this year. Both come in to the tournament with good current form and, in particular, Goosen’s recent record in tournaments held in the Emirates is excellent (21st, 1st, 5th & 6th).

Of the outsiders, Rafael Cabrera-Bello’s (201.0) price looks too big. While his form has dipped since winning the Austrian Open in sensational style nine weeks ago, he is one of only three players in this week’s field ranked outside the top 20 in the world (also Anders Hansen and Thongchai Jaidee) with at least five top fives in the last year.

 

 

Strong Recommendations

  • Martin Kaymer at 15.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)

Recommendations 

  • Retief Goosen at 26.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
  • Peter Hanson at 67.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
  • Rafael Cabrera-Bello at 151.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
 

 

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