Netherlands (Bettorlogic rank 3) v Japan (43) (Sat, 12:30)
In Germany 2006, seven of the eight top-10 Bettorlogic ranked teams that won their opening match were successful in their second game while since 1970 just eight of 53 have been beaten (W30-D15-L8). Furthermore, all nine such sides that have faced teams ranked 31-50 in their second match have won with seven clean sheets and seven victories by two clear goals. The Netherlands were comfortable 2-0 winners over Denmark in their opener. Since 1992, they have won all five finals matches in which they have played teams ranked 31-50 with four +2.5 goals games. Likewise, they have won all of their three second group stage matches when they have gained full-points from their opener in finals this century (3/3 +2.5 goals).
Japan produced one of the shocks of the tournament so far in beating Cameroon 1-0 in their opener and as a result their odds to qualify were reduced from 4.30 to 2.12. Ironically, Cameroon (in 1990) are the only team ranked 31-50 to have won their opening two World Cup group stage matches. Since 1998, Japan have lost 8/14 finals matches and were thrashed 4-1 by Brazil in Germany in their only previous match against a top-10 ranked side.
Recommendation: Netherlands Win -1.5 2.25, Bet365
Ghana (45) v Australia (30) (Sat, 15:00)
Providing Serbia fail to beat Germany on Wednesday, Ghana can qualify for the knockout stages with a victory over Australia. The Black Stars beat Serbia 1-0 in their opener and, despite benefitting from Aleksander Lukovic’s 74th minute dismissal, they were worthy winners. As we have previously mentioned, this is just Ghana’s second World Cup – after being knocked out in the Last 16 by Brazil in Germany 2006 – but they have had a lot of finals practice due to the biennial nature of the African Cup of Nations. Since 2006, they have won five of 10 finals matches against higher-ranked opposition with six -2.5 goals games and four -1.5 goals games.
Australia were thrashed by Germany 4-0 in their first game and now face Ghana without the help of their best player Tim Cahill after he was shown a dubious straight-red for his 56th minute lunge. The Aussies have now lost-to-nil in five of their eight finals matches which includes just a solitary victory over Japan. Teams ranked 21-40 that lost their opening World Cup match have then been beaten in their following game in 19/29 games since 1970, 15 times failing to score.
Given the low-scoring nature of the tournament so far and Australia’s reliance on the unavailable Cahill as a goal threat we feel there is more value in backing Ghana to win while keeping a clean sheet than just outright. Further, Ghana have scored more than two goals in just two of their 33 finals wins since 1970 with 24 games ending either 1-0 or 2-0.
Recommendation: Split Stakes: Correct score 1-0 6.80, Betfair
Correct score 2-0 10.0, Bodog
Cameroon (33) v Denmark (20) (Sat, 19:30)
Cameroon were dreadful against Japan and, unless Rangers-flop Paul Le Guen changes tact and moves Samuel Eto’o into a more central and influential role, they will be making a swift exit from the competition. Prior to their 1-0 shock defeat, they were unbeaten in five opening World Cup games, albeit with four draws. Since 1982, Cameroon have won just two of 14 World Cup group stage fixtures against higher-ranked opposition with seven draws but they do have a strong record following a defeat. Including African Cup of Nations games over the same period, they have won five of eight such fixtures and on six occasions both teams scored while five games saw at least three goals and four saw five or more.
The higher-ranked side has scored in 13/17 second World Cup Group Stage matches when both teams have been beaten in their opener with nine victories while both teams have scored in seven of the 13 games when the difference in the ranking has been greater than 10. Denmark are undefeated in six finals matches against teams ranked 21-40 since Euro 1996 and both teams have netted in four of the games (W3-D3-L0). Moreover, the Danes have scored in 14 of their 18 finals matches since 1984 when they have been the higher-ranked team. Five of their last seven such fixtures have seen both teams score.
Recommendation: Both teams to score 2.10, Bet365