Football / Preview / World Cup Monday 21St June

World Cup: Monday 21st June

Spain will be keen to make amends against Honduras after their 1-0 loss to Chile while Portugal face Korea DPR in the lunchtime kick-off.

Spain's David Villa and Xavi Hernandez

 

Portugal (Bettorlogic rank 9) v Korea DPR (65) (Mon, 12:30)

Portugal were involved in a dull goalless draw in their opener against Ivory Coast, but they will be aware that anything less than three points here would be a massive blow to their chances of reaching the Last 16. Portugal’s aforementioned stalemate was their first in 18 finals group stage matches as they boast a record of W13-D1-L4 since Euro 1996 which has included winning all six second set of fixtures, five of which were to nil. Their only previous finals game against a side with a Bettorlogic rank of 51+ was when they beat Angola 1-0 in their 2006 opener while their three group stage games following a draw in their previous match have seen fewer than three goals (W2-D1-L0). More generally, teams ranked 1-10 have won four of six second finals group stage fixtures since 1982 against teams placed outside the top-50 when they’ve failed to win their opener.

Korea DPR adopted an extremely cautious approach in their opener with Brazil and they can be expected to keep the same strategy here. Ghana (in Germany 2006) are the only team ranked outside the top-50 to have won their second World Cup match in 14 tries since 1970 (W1-D3-L10) and six have been beaten by two clear goals and nine to nil. Asian teams have lost 27 of 39 (69%) World Cup group stage fixtures against European sides over the same period with 26 defeats including 18 by two clear goals and 19 to nil.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Correct Score 1-0 6.00, Various

                                                           Correct score 2-0 6.00, Various

 

Chile (7) v Switzerland (26) (Mon, 15:00)

Both of these teams won their first games, however it was the Swiss who were the most unlikely victors – defeating pre-tournament favourites Spain 1-0. Switzerland’s success represents an ironic dilemma for Chile. It could be argued that Chile’s chance of progressing to the next round has diminished now their expected rivals for the second qualification spot have three unexpected points, but their chance of winning the group – and thus playing the runners-up in Group G in the Last 16 – has increased. Chile have won 11 of 20 finals matches against teams ranked at least 10 places lower than themselves with eight W/Ws and 12 +2.5 goals games.

Switzerland’s shock defeat of Spain came largely against the run of play – Vicente del Bosque’s side had 63% possession and 24 shots in the game. Teams ranked outside the top-10 have lost eight of their 18 group stage fixtures when they have beaten a top-five ranked side in their previous game. The Swiss have also lost five of their 11 finals group stage matches against top-10 ranked teams with four defeats to nil. Since 1970, teams ranked 16-36 have lost 110/175 (63%) top-10 ranked teams with 64 (37%) L/Ls.

Recommendation: Chile Win 2.38, William Hill

 

Spain (2) v Honduras (28) (Mon, 19:00)

Spanish fans can take solace in this stat: top-five teams have won 13 of 16 finals group stage matches against teams ranked outside the top-20 after losing their opener, with nine victories by three clear goals. Despite this, their confidence will certainly have taken a knock. One of the more interesting effects of the shock Swiss victory was that the chance of Spain facing Brazil in the Last 16 became conceivable – Spain are currently 3.20 to top Group H, but 1.39 to qualify, while Brazil are 1.51 to finish first in Group G. The top-two ranked sides haven’t faced each other in a World Cup match since France played Brazil in the quarter-finals in 1986. Spain have won 11 of 17 finals matches against teams ranked 21-40 with nine wins by two clear goals and four by three clear goals.

Honduras fought well in their opener, but, despite the narrow margin of the defeat, they deserved to lose. Chile dominated the game – they had 20 shots - and blew a multitude of glorious chances as they ended worthy winners.  CONCACAF nations have struggled greatly against European opposition over the years, losing 26 of 44 World Cup group stage matches, 16 of which were by two or more goals. Moreover, teams ranked 21-40 that have lost their previous World Cup match have lost all 11 games against sides ranked 1-5 since 1970 with five defeats by three clear goals.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Correct score 3-0 6.00, Various

                                                           Correct score Any Other 3.35, Betfair



 

 
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