Germany (5) v Serbia (15) (Fri, 12:30)
Germany have made at least the quarter-finals at every World Cup since the second group stage was scrapped in 1986 and after their demolition of Australia they look very capable of continuing that fine record here. They’ve now won 20 of 24 World Cup group matches against teams ranked outside the top 10 with 14 W/Ws, including winning 13/15 World Cup group matches against teams ranked 11-30 with nine W/Ws, and all six such games since 1994 being won to-nil. Also, 10 of these 15 matches have seen the opening goal scored in the first 20 minutes.
Serbia had a man sent off before conceding a late goal to lose 1-0 to Ghana in their opening match. They’ve now lost their last four group games and haven’t beaten a top-10 side in 14 attempts since 1970. Of these 14 matches they’ve lost eight with six L/L doubles.
Top-10 teams that won their previous match have won seven of 12 World Cup group matches against teams ranked 11-30 that lost their previous game, with six W/Ws including four double results in six second group games (W5-D1-L0). Also top-10 teams have won 11 of 16 World Cup matches against 11-30 ranked sides that have improved their ranking by at least 15 places in the past two years, with all 11 wins by the W/W double.
Recommendation: Germany W/W at 2.62, Sporting Bet
Slovenia (34) v USA (12) (Fri, 15:00)
Slovenia won their first ever finals match (having previously qualified for the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2000) in their opener against Algeria and whilst not the most potent attacking force they are solid at the back having conceded just four goals in qualification. Teams ranked 31-50 that won their previous game have lost only one of five World Cup matches against teams ranked 11-30 (W2-D2-L1).
The USA are also a fairly limited side and heavily reliant on the creative abilities of Landon Donovan. They’ve managed one draw and four defeats from five finals matches against teams ranked 31-50 and have lost five of eight finals matches against teams that won their previous game, including a draw and two defeats from three such matches against teams ranked outside the top 20, with five of those eight matches having fewer than three goals.
Recommendation: Slovenia Draw No Bet at 2.75, Sky Bet
England (4) v Algeria (52) (Fri, 19:30)
England failed to find their best form in their opening draw against the USA as Robert Green’s howler gifted a point to their Group C rivals, while Algeria also suffered from a goalkeeping blunder as they lost to a late Slovenia goal after first going down to 10 men.
England have won all three of their finals matches against 51+ ranked teams since 1990, although twice they had to wait till the second half before breaking the deadlock and while all three wins were with clean sheets they failed to score more than twice in any of the games.
Algeria were organised but limited in their opening game and since 2000 they’ve had fewer than three goals in eight of their 13 group matches and back to the 1986 World Cup they’ve only conceded more than one goal in two of seven finals matches against top-30 ranked sides, with five matches having -2.5 goals.
Top-10 teams have won 15 of 19 World Cup matches since 1970 against 51+ ranked sides with 12 wins-to-nil and 13 of the matches had -2.5 goals. Also 11 of the wins were by the W/W double as there were nine 1-0 half-time leads.
Recommendation: England win to nil at 1.80, 888Sport