Football / Preview / Topline 20 02 2010

Topline (20/02/2010)

Topline recorded a profit for the third week running which included a Cagliari W/W at 3.20.

Cagliari's Nene


Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96 (Sat, 14:30) - Result: 4-1 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Dortmund have won five of their last seven home matches and will be looking to bounce back after three defeats in-a-row against tricky opposition. Before that they’d been 12 games unbeaten overall with nine wins of which eight were W/W doubles. Moreover, they’re unbeaten since 2007/08 when hosting bottom-six teams with 10 wins from 14 games and seven W/Ws. Hannover’s troubles continue, as they’ve not won in 11 and lost all of their last seven games – with six L/Ls. Furthermore, they’ve lost six of their last seven away (five L/Ls) and not won in nine trips to top-six teams with six defeats and five L/Ls.

Recommendation: Borussia Dortmund W/W 2.34, Betfair


Championship: Newcastle v Preston (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 3-0 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Newcastle have won 12 of their 16 home matches this season with nine W/Ws, including winning six of seven hosting bottom-half sides with five W/Ws. Preston have lost nine of their last 13 away games with six L/Ls, including losing six of their last seven away – beating bottom-placed Peterborough in the other match. Moreover, they’ve lost six of their last seven trips to top-half teams with four L/Ls.

Recommendation: Newcastle W/W 2.50, Betfair


League One: Colchester v Oldham (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 0-0)

HT/FT: Colchester have been on fine form this season, winning 12 of their 15 home ties with eight W/Ws.  Furthermore, they have won seven of their 15 ties against bottom-half teams this term, with five W/W doubles, and all three of their wins against similar opposition at home were also W/Ws.  Oldham have had L/Ls in four of their last six away games. Further, their last three games against top-six sides have also been L/Ls.

Recommendation: Colchester W/W 2.80, Betfair


Championship:  Nottm Forest v Middlesbrough (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 1-0

Match outcome: Nottingham Forest have won eight in a row – and 11 of their last 12 – at home with all eight won by the W/W double. Moreover they’ve won six of their last 10 home games against teams placed 5th-13th whilst losing only once. Middlesbrough have lost four of their last six away matches including their last three trips to top-half teams.

Recommendation: Nottm Forest Win 2.00, Boyles/Coral


League Two: Accrington v Bradford (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 2-0

Over/Under: Nine of Accrington’s last 11 home fixtures have seen at least three scores whilst six of the games have featured four or more. Furthermore, all of their last five games hosting bottom-half sides have contained more than a brace of scores. 11 of Bradford’s 13 away matches this term have settled the +2.5 goals market as have six of their last eight games at middle-third teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Betfair


League Two: Rochdale v Dag & Red (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 3-1

HT/FT: Rochdale have gained maximum points from five of their last six home matches and each of the victories have come courtesy of the W/W double result. Similarly, they have gained full-points from four of their last six games hosting middle-third sides. Dag & Red have suffered defeat in all of their last three away fixtures (two L/Ls) and they have also been beaten in six of nine winless trips to top-six teams since 2008/09 (four L/Ls).

Recommendation: Rochdale W/W 2.76, Betfair


Serie A: Genoa v Udinese (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 3-0

Match outcome: Genoa are now unbeaten in eight home matches with six wins, five W/Ws and four victories by two clear goals. Furthermore, they have won 12 of 15 undefeated home games against bottom-half opposition, nine by two or more scores. Udinese are winless on the road this season — W0-D4-L8 — and the visitors have also been beaten in three of their last four away fixtures when they have lost their last game on the road.

Recommendation: Genoa Win 2.00, Stan James


Ligue 1: St Etienne v Montpellier (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 1-0

Win to nil: St Etienne won their last home game, but before that had failed to score in six matches at home – losing three times – and they’ve lost four of their 10 home games against top-six teams without scoring since the start of last season (W3-D3-L4). All five of St Etienne’s home defeats this term have been to nil. Montpellier have won their last five consecutive matches without conceding and have won half their 12 away matches this season including both trips to bottom-six teams. Since 2004/05 bottom-six teams hosting top-six teams have lost 38% of their matches compared to winning just 30%.

Recommendation: Montpellier Win to nil 5.50, Paddy Power


Serie A: Inter Milan v Sampdoria (Sat, 19:45) - Result: 0-0

HT/FT: Inter Milan remain seven points clear at the top of Serie A despite their scoreless draw at Napoli last weekend. The Italian champions have won 10 of their last 11 home matches and eight of the victories have been W/W doubles. Similarly, they have gained full-points from eight of nine unbeaten games hosting top-six opposition under Jose Mourinho with four W/Ws. Although Sampdoria have won their last two away fixtures, at Siena and Udinese, they had previously lost their last six on the road. The visitors also have a dreadful record travelling to Big Four sides — W0-D1-L5 since the start of last season with four L/Ls.

Recommendation: Inter Milan W/W 2.40, Will Hill


La Liga: Mallorca v Sevilla (Sat, 21:00) - Result: 1-3

Match outcome: Mallorca have won all of their 10 home fixtures this season, conceding just three goals in the process. They have also been successful in four of their last six home games against top-six opposition. Sevilla have been beaten in all of their last three away fixtures, including a 2-1 defeat at Real Zaragoza, and they have also lost four of their last six trips to top-six sides.

Recommendation: Mallorca Win 2.66, Betfair


Super Lig: Eskisehirspor v Genclerbirligi (Sun, 13:00) - Result: 0-0

Match outcome: Eskisehirspor have won seven of their 11 home matches this season as well as winning six of their last eight home matches against middle-third teams. Genclerbirligi have lost 11 of their last 16 away matches, including five of their last seven. They’ve also lost half their eight away matches against top-half non-Big Three teams since 2008/09. Top half non-Big Three teams have won 55% of home matches against middle-third teams since 2004-05.

Recommendation: Eskisehirspor Win 2.30, Expekt


Eredivisie: Ajax v Vitesse (Sun, 13:30) - Result: 4-0

Asian handicap: Ajax have now won all of their last nine home matches, eight by two clear goals and five by three clear goals. Similarly, they have a 100% record in their last seven games hosting middle-third sides, conceding just one goal in the process. Vitesse have failed to net in five of their last nine away fixtures and they have been beaten by three or more scores in four of their last seven trips to either of the Big Two since 2006/07 — W0-D0-L7.

Recommendation: Asian handicap Ajax -2 2.02, Various


Serie A: Palermo v Lazio (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 3-1

Match outcome: Palermo are unbeaten in 18 home matches with 13 wins, including their current five-game home winning streak, and have only once failed to score during this time. Moreover, they’ve won 12 and lost only one of their 17 home games against bottom-half teams since the start of last season with seven wins to-nil. Lazio have lost four of their last nine away with all four defeats to-nil, although they won their first match under Edoardo Reja last week at Parma. Moreover, they’ve lost half their eight away games against top-half non-Big Four teams since the start of lasts season as they failed to score in six of the games including all four defeats.

Recommendation: Palermo Win 2.00, Expekt


Serie A: Cagliari v Parma (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 2-0 (HT 2-0)

HT/FT: Cagliari have won 14 of their last 19 home matches against middle-third teams with 10 W/Ws and they’re currently unbeaten in nine at home. Furthermore they’ve won all of their last seven home games against promoted teams with four W/Ws and the last five all won by at least two goals. Parma started the season well but have taken just two points from their last eight matches including four away defeats in a row, and six in their last eight on the road with four L/Ls. Since 2005/06 teams on a streak of four away consecutive away defeats have lost eight of 12 away matches against top-half non-Big Four teams with six L/Ls.

Recommendation: Cagliari W/W 3.20, Bwin


Premier League: Aston Villa v Burnley (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 5-2 (HT 1-1)

HT/FT: Aston Villa have won nine of their last 11 home games against bottom-six teams, with all nine wins by the W/W double, six by two or more goals and six with the win to-nil. Moreover, they’ve won seven of their last eight hosting bottom-half teams with seven cleans sheets, six wins to-nil and six W/Ws. Burnley have lost 12 of their 13 away matches this season with nine L/Ls, and their last six all lost without scoring. Moreover, they’ve lost five of their six trips to top-half teams by three or more goals. Furthermore, top-half teams have won all seven home games against teams that have lost seven in-a-row away since 2004/05, with five W/Ws and five wins by two or more goals (3/6 by four clear goals).

Recommendation: Aston Villa W/W 2.18, Betfair










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