Football / Preview / Champions League Tues Amp Weds 15 2 10

Champions League (Tues & Weds)

We made successful recommendations in all four of the Champions League fixtures this week, including a HT draw at 2.10 in the Porto v Arsenal clash.

Arsenal's Sol Campbell scores against Porto

 

AC Milan (Bettorlogic ranking, 13) v Man Utd (3) (Tues, 19:45) - Result: 2-3 (HT 1-1)

HT outcome: AC Milan have an impressive record at home in knockout stage matches — W9-D3-L2 since 2002/03 — but they were tied at the interval in half of these games. Moreover, they have hosted higher-ranked opposition four times in this sample and, although they have won just once, they have been drawing at half-time on three occasions. Italian sides have gone into the break level in seven of their last 10 home fixtures against English opposition (8/10 -2.5 goals). Man Utd are unbeaten in six away knockout matches, four of which were first legs. They haven’t conceded before the break in any of the games and three were goalless after 45 minutes.

Recommendation: HT Draw 2.10, Coral

 

Lyon (12) v Real Madrid (4) (Tues, 19:45) - Result: 1-0

Asian handicap: Lyon have an excellent home record in the knockout stage of the Champions League. They have been beaten in just one of their nine such matches since 2003/04 and they have been leading at half-time on five occasions. Additionally, they are undefeated hosting top-10 ranked sides over the same period. French teams have won six of their last 11 home matches against Spanish teams, losing just once with six clean sheets. Real Madrid, meanwhile, have a dreadful record on the road. The visitors have lost 10 of their 13 away knockout fixtures this century, which has included eight of their 10 games at lower-ranked opposition.

Recommendation: Lyon Win DNB 2.70, Betfair

 

Bayern Munich (6) v Fiorentina (17) (Weds, 19:45) - Result: 2-1

Over/Under: Bayern Munich are rightly favourites for this game. The Germans have won seven of their 11 home knockout matches this century, although only two of the victories were by two clear goals — seven of the games settled the +2.5 goals market. Fiorentina have won three of their six away Champions League fixtures since the start of last season and four of the matches have seen more than a brace of scores (two +3.5 goals). Italian teams have lost 11 of their last 16 trips to sides ranked at least 10 places above them and 10 (63%) of the clashes have featured at least three goals (seven +3.5 goals).

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.90, Expekt

 

Porto (8) v Arsenal (5) (Weds, 19:45) - Result: 2-1 (HT 1-1)

HT outcome: Porto have lost just one knockout stage home match since 2003/04 — their 1-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United last season. The hosts have won three and drawn four of their other seven such matches — 7/8 -2.5 goals, 6/8 HT draws. Arsenal, on the other hand, have a poor away record in two-legged affairs. They have lost five of their 12 games since 2003/04, winning just three times, and they have not led at half-time in any of the matches — HT W0-D8-L4, failing to score before the interval on nine occasions. Furthermore, Arsenal have been drawing after 45 minutes in six of their last nine trips to top-10 ranked sides (FT W3-D2-L4).

Recommendation: HT Draw 2.10, Bet365
 

 
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