Football / Preview / Topline 13 03 2009

Topline (13/03/2009)

This week's Topline contains 14 recommendations spread across Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Porto's Hulk



Bundesliga: Schalke v Stuttgart (Fri, 19:30)

Match outcome: Schalke have won their last seven home games and have also won four of their six home matches against top-half teams this season. Stuttgart have been in excellent form recently but have the distraction of a trip to Barcelona next week. Moreover, they have a terrible away record against Big Three teams of five defeats in seven matches since 2007/08, as well as losing eight of 12 away matches against top-six teams in this time.

Recommendation: Schalke Win 2.10, Bet365/Stan James


Bundesliga: Bochum v Borussia Dortmund (Sat, 14:30)

Over/Under: Bochum have had +2.5 goals in seven of their 12 home games this season as well as in 18 of 26 home matches against top-half teams since 2007/08 including five of seven this term. Dortmund have had over-goals in their last six away games and in 10 of their last 12 overall, with seven having at least four goals.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.75, William Hill/Victor Chandler


Bundesliga: Hannover v E Frankfurt (Sat, 14:30)

DNB: Hannover have lost their last five home matches and while they snapped a nine-match losing streak overall last weekend that owed more to their opponents missing chances (and also being one of the worst teams in the league). Frankfurt have lost only one of their last six away matches – against in-form Stuttgart – and have won five of 10 trips to bottom-six sides since the start of last season whilst losing only once.

Recommendation: E Frankfurt Win DNB 2.26, Betfair


Serie B: Empoli v Gallipoli (Sat, 14:30)

HT/FT: Empoli are undefeated in 17 home fixtures with 13 victories, 11 W/Ws and nine wins-to-nil. Additionally, they have gone W4-D2-L0 in their last six games hosting bottom-half sides (five HT 1-0 leads). Promoted Gallipoli have lost half (5/10) of their recent away fixtures; three of the defeats were L/L doubles and three were to nil.

Recommendation: Empoli W/W 2.40, Paddy Power

NOTE: Our preference would be to back Empoli on the handicap, but at the time of publishing no prices were available.


Championship: Swansea v Sheff Wed (Sat, 15:00)

Win to nil: Swansea have conceded just two goals in their last nine home games – against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest respectively – as they’ve recorded five wins-to-nil. Moreover, they’ve conceded just one goal in eight home matches this season against current bottom-half teams including wins-to-nil in their last five such matches. Wednesday have lost four of their last five matches overall – all to nil – and have failed to score in eight of their last 13 away matches with six defeats-to-nil. Further, they’ve lost all four of their trips this season to teams currently in the top six with three defeats-to-nil.

Recommendation: Swansea Win to nil 2.50 Bet365/Boyle Sports


Segunda: Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal B (Sat, 17:00)

Over/Under: Vallecano have had three or more goals in 16 of their last 21 home matches with 11 having four or more and eight at least five goals. Moreover, their last eight home matches against top-half teams have all had +2.5 goals with the last seven all having at least four. Villarreal have had +2.5 goals in eight of 14 away matches this season, as well as in five of their last seven trips to middle-third teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.34, Betfair


La Liga: Sevilla v Deportivo (Sat, 21:00)

HT/FT: Sevilla threw away a two-goal lead at the Bernabeu last weekend, but their home form remains strong. They have gained 10 points from their last four matches with three W/Ws and three clean sheets. Additionally, they have won two-thirds (10/15) of their games hosting top-six sides stretching back to the beginning of 2007/08, recording eight W/W doubles in the process. Deportivo haven’t scored on the road in five games with L/Ls in their last two. Furthermore, they have been beaten in nine of their 11 trips to top-six teams since 2007/08.

Recommendation: Sevilla W/W 2.84, Betfair


Super Liga: Academica v FC Porto (Sat, 21:15)

Asian handicap: Academica are winless in three home losses with two defeats having netted just once. Further, they have a terrible record hosting Big Three opposition — W0-D2-L5 since 2007/08 with four defeats by two clear goals. Porto have defeated the -1.5 goal handicap in 60% (15/25) of their away fixtures since the start of last season and also in six of their last seven games at bottom-six sides.

Recommendation: Porto Win -1.25 2.54, Bet365


Segunda: Hercules v Las Palmas (Sun, 11:00)

Asian handicap: Hercules have won 20 of their last 24 home matches (W20-D3-L1) with 12 wins by two or more goals. They’ve also won eight of 10 home matches against teams placed 10th-18th since 2008/09 with five wins by two-clear goals. Las Palmas have lost half of their last 12 away matches, as well as eight of their 16 trips to top-six teams since 2007/08 with all eight defeats by two or more goals.

Recommendation: Hercules Win -1 2.36, Bet365


Eredivisie: Vitesse v Heerenveen (Sun, 13:30)

Over/Under: 11 of Vitesse’s 29 (38%) home matches have seen at least four goals since the start of last season as have three of their last five games hosting bottom-six teams. Incredibly, 17 of Heerenveen’s last 30 (57%) away fixtures have settled the +3.5 goals market as have 59% (10/17) of their games at bottom-six sides since 2007/08. Furthermore, five of their last eight one the road when they have previously been on similar five-game away form (three points) have featured more than three scores (W1-D0-L7).

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.00, William Hill


Serie A: Bologna v Sampdoria (Sun, 14:00)

Over/Under: 64% (21/33) of Bologna’s home matches have contained three or more scores since the start of last season and they have conceded in 10 of their last 11 home fixtures. Furthermore, eight of their last 10 home games against top-six sides have seen at least three goals while five have featured four or more. Five of Sampdoria’s last eight away matches have settled the +2.5 goals market as have 10 of their 16 (63%) away fixtures when they have netted since 2008/09.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.26, Betfair


Serie A: Genoa v Cagliari (Sun, 14:00)

Asian handicap: Genoa have won seven of their last 10 home matches and they have also been leading at half-time in seven of the games (five victories by two clear goals). Additionally, they have recorded W/Ws six of their last eight home fixtures when they previously been on similar five-game home form with five wins by two or more scores. Cagliari have suffered defeat in five of their last seven away fixtures (three L/Ls) and also in three-quarters (12/16) of their trips to middle-third sides since 2007/08 with six L/Ls.

Recommendation: Genoa Win -1 2.43, Bet365


Super Lig: Denizlispor v Besiktas (Mon, 18:00)

HT/FT: Denizlispor have lost all eight of their home matches against the Big Three since 2007/08 with seven L/L doubles, and have lost six of their last 11 home matches against all teams whilst winning only once. Further, they’ve lost four of their last five home matches against top-half teams with two L/Ls. Besiktas have won five of their last seven away games and since 2007/08 have won eight and drawn two of 10 trips to bottom-six teams with four W/W doubles.

Recommendation: Besiktas W/W 2.70, William Hill


Serie B: Grosseto v Mantova (Mon, 18:00)

Over/Under: 77% (27/35) of Grosseto's home matches since the start of last season have seen at least three goals while 43% (15/35) have featured four or more. Similarly, two-thirds (6/9) of their recent games hosting bottom-six teams have settled the +3.5 goals market. At least three goals have been scored in two of Mantova's last three away fixtures and both sides have netted in all of their last three trips to top-six teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.10, Betfair

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