Football / Preview / Champions League 08 03 2010

Champions League

Bettorlogic have previewed all four Champions League Last 16 Second Legs taking place this week including Man Utd v AC Milan.

Lyon's captain Cris


Arsenal (Bettorlogic ranking 7) v Porto (8) (Tues, 19:45)

HT/FT: Arsenal have won 19 of their 28 (68%) home Champions League fixtures since 2004/05 and 14 of the victories have been W/W doubles. Interestingly, 17 (61%) of these games have settled the -2.5 goals market, as have eight of their last 10 home knockout stage matches (W5-D4-L1). Porto have been beaten in 11 of their 24 away games since they lifted the trophy in 2004. Further, they are winless in five away knockout matches in this spell with three defeats (HT W0-D2-L3). English teams are unbeaten in seven games (W4-D3-L0) hosting teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 6-15 in the second-leg of a Last 16 match since 2003/04 with five clean sheets and four wins-to-nil. All of the last three such games have been W/Ws. Bettors looking at the 'to qualify' market should note that the home side has qualified in 11 of the last 16 matches when they were beaten by one goal, but scored, in the first leg.

Recommendation: Arsenal W/W 2.60, William Hill/Victor Chandler


Fiorentina (20) v Bayern Munich (7) (Tues, 19:45)

Match outcome: Fiorentina had a 100% home record in Group E with wins over Liverpool, Lyon and Debrechen. Italian teams have a strong record at home in the second leg at his stage of the tournament — W8-D2-L3 since 2004/05 — which has included victories in four of their eight games hosting top-10 ranked teams (five -1.5 goals). Bayern Munich, meanwhile, have a poor record in away knockout stage fixtures. Since 2004/05, they have lost six of their eight such matches with just one win. Likewise, they have been beaten in all of their three second leg matches when they’ve won the first leg. Over the same period, Bayern have gone W1-D2-L3 travelling to Italian opposition.

Recommendation: Fiorentina Win 2.85, Various


Man Utd (2) v AC Milan (13) (Weds, 19:45)

Correct score: Manchester United are undefeated in nine home knockout matches since 2006/07 and six of the victories have been to nil (five 1-0s). Moreover, United also have an excellent record hosting teams ranked 6-20 over the same period — W8-D2-L0 with four 1-0s, and one 2-0. AC Milan have won just one of their seven away knockout matches since 2005/06, failing to score on four occasions. English teams have won seven of eight unbeaten home matches against Italian sides since 2007/08 and, incredibly, haven’t conceded a single goal in the process. Five of the victories were 1-0 and two were 2-0.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: 0.75 pt Manchester United to win 1-0 8.6, Betfair
                                                            0.25 pt Manchester United to win 2-0 10.0, Betfair


Real Madrid (4) v Lyon (11) (Weds, 19:45)

To qualify: Real Madrid have won only two of their five home knockout stage matches since 2004/05, suffering defeat in the other three games. Furthermore, they have been eliminated from the Champions League at this stage in all of their last five campaigns. Over the same period, they have gone W4-D1-L3 hosting teams ranked 6-20 but just one of the wins was by two clear goals. Lyon have avoided defeat in four of their six away knockout matches since 2004/05 with one defeat by two clear goals. Additionally, Spanish teams have been knocked out in three of the last four games when they’ve lost the first leg on the road.

Recommendation: Lyon to qualify 2.62, Betfair


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