Football / Preview / Topline 13 02 2010

Topline (13/02/2010)

After last week's excellent results, Topline returns with 11 recommendations spanning Saturday and Sunday this weekend.

Middlesbrough players


Super League: FC Xanthi v Larissa (Sat, 14:45) - Result: 0-1

Match outcome: Xanthi have a good home record this season and have won seven of their last eight home matches excluding the current top two. Moreover, they’ve won 10 of 13 home matches against bottom-half teams since the start of last season, including each of their last six. Larissa have lost eight of their last 10 away matches, including each of their last five, and they’ve taken just one point from six away against teams placed 6th-15th this season. Since 2004/05, Middle-third teams have won 56% of home games against bottom-six sides, while teams that have lost their last five away matches have subsequently lost their next away game in 17 of 25 occasions.

Recommendation: Xanthi Win 2.05, William Hill


Championship: Middlesbrough v Bristol City (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five matches and while they’ve generally struggled at home this season their results are improving and they’ve won four of their six home games against bottom-half teams this term, with all four wins by the W/W double. In fact 10 of their 11 wins home and away this season have been by the W/W double. Peterborough won their first game under Jim Gannon against struggling QPR but are winless away this season with just four draws from 15 games and have trailed at half-time on 11 occasions as they’ve suffered 10 L/Ls. Against top-half teams they’ve lost six of eight away games with five L/Ls.

Recommendation: Middlesbrough W/W 2.50, Boyles


Segunda: Hercules v Villarreal B (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 4-2

Over/Under: Hercules have won two-thirds (22/33) of their home fixtures since the start of last season and 58% (19/33) of the games have seen at least three goals, although this increases to 83% (15/18) when they conceded. Similarly, four of their last five games hosting top-six sides have settled the +2.5 goals market. Promoted Villarreal B have scored in nine of their 12 away matches this term and all of their seven such games in which they have conceded have contained more than a brace of scores.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.18, Betfair


Ligue 1: Montpellier v Grenoble (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 1-0

Correct score: Promoted Montpellier are enjoying an amazing season. The hosts sit in second position just three points adrift of leaders Bordeaux. Montpellier have won eight of their last 10 home fixtures and six of the victories have been by either the 1-0 or 2-0 score lines. Interestingly, they have conceded before the break in just one of their home matches this term. Grenoble, meanwhile, are nailed to the bottom of Ligue 1. They have picked up just 10 points from 23 points and remain winless on the road — W0-D2-L9, failing to score nine times with six 1-0 or 2-0 losses.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Montpellier to win 1-0 7.0, Tote
                                                            Montpellier to win 2-0 8.0, Betfair


Serie A: Sampdoria v Fiorentina (Sat, 19:45) - Result: 2-0

Asian handicap: Sampdoria are now undefeated in 20 home fixtures having recorded 10 wins in the process. Over a longer period, they have won half (11/22) of their games hosting middle-third opposition. Fiorentina have won only one of their last five on the road (W1-D1-L3) and they have been beaten in eight of 10 winless trips to top-six sides.

Recommendation: Asian handicap Sampdoria -0.25 2.10, Bet365


Super Lig: Denizlispor v Kayserispor (Sun, 12:00) - Result: 1-0

HT/FT: Denizlispor are winless all season and have won just one of 38 separate halves, while they have lost 12 of their last 13 matches overall. They have suffered eight D/L doubles in their last 13 matches as well as four L/Ls, while they’ve lost their last four home games against top-half teams with an even split of D/Ls and L/Ls. Kayserispor have won six of their last seven away games, as well as nine of their last 10 away against bottom-six teams, with eight W/Ws.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Denizlispor L/L 2.88, Coral
                                                            Denizlispor D/L 4.60, William Hill


Super Lig: Istanbul BB v Ankaragucu (Sun, 12:00) - Result: 1-1

Match outcome: Istanbul have won four of their last six home games, as well as six of their last eight hosting bottom-half teams. Ankaragucu have lost six of their last nine away games and have taken just one point from their last seven away games against top-half non-Big Three teams, whilst scoring only once.

Recommendation: Istanbul Win 2.45, Various


Eredivisie: Groningen v Waalwijk (Sun, 13:30) - Result: 2-1 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Groningen are undefeated in five home matches with three W/Ws. Furthermore, they have emerged victorious in eight of their last nine games hosting bottom-six teams with seven W/Ws. Waalwijk remain hot-favourites for relegation; they are nailed to the bottom of the table with just 12 points from 22 league games. The visitors have lost nine of their 10 on the road this term with seven L/Ls and they have also witnessed L/Ls in all of their three trips to middle-third sides.

Recommendation: Groningen W/W 2.16, Betfair


Serie A: Cagliari v Bari (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 3-1

Win to nil: Cagliari are now unbeaten in eight home matches — W5-D3-L0 — and they have scored at least two goals in each of the games with four wins-to-nil. Furthermore, they have gained full-points from 13 of their last 18 (72%) home fixtures against middle-third sides and 11 of the victories were without conceding. Promoted Bari have lost six of eight winless away matches, which has included four defeats in five trips to middle-third teams. The visitors will be without their top-scorer Vitor Barreto for this match as the Brazilian serves a one-game suspension.

Recommendation: Cagliari Win to nil 3.50, Skybet


La Liga: Espanyol v Deportivo (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 2-0 (HT 1-0)

HT correct score: Espanyol have not trailed at half-time in any of their last nine home fixtures, although they have been drawing at the break on eight occasions (seven HT 0-0s). Furthermore, they have seen goalless first halves in four of their last five games hosting top-six opposition. Deportivo have been tied 0-0 at the interval in all of their last five away fixtures and the same has been true in two-thirds (20/30) of their matches at bottom-half teams since 2006/07.

Recommendation: HT 0-0 3.00, Betfair


Super Liga: Sporting Braga v Maritimo (Sun, 18:00) - Result: 2-1

Correct score: Braga’s magnificent season is showing no signs of abating. The hosts have won all of their last five league matches and haven’t conceded a home goal in seven games — winning six either 1-0 or 2-0. Furthermore, they have won all of their last four games against top-six opponents 1-0 or 2-0. Maritimo, who themselves are in the midst of a promising campaign, are winless in 12 trips to top-six sides since 2007/08 with eight losses, five of which were either 1-0 or 2-0.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Sporting Braga to win 1-0 6.50, Various
                                                            Sporting Braga to win 2-0 8.40, Betfair







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