Football / Preview / Topline 11 12 2010

Topline (11/12/2010)

This week's Topline contains 14 recommendations spread across Friday-Sunday and includes a pick in Bolton v Blackburn.

Bolton's Johan Elmander


Bundesliga: Hannover 96 v VFB Stuttgart (Fri, 19:30)

Both sides have had a preponderance of over goals this season – 7/8 +2.5 for Hannover at home and 5/7 for Stuttgart away. Indeed Hannover top the table for the most +2.5 goals at home with 17 in their last 20. Stuttgart have conceded two or more in all seven of their away matches this season and the 17 they’ve conceded away is almost as many they did throughout last season. Since the start of last season, 11/18 Hannover games have been +3.5 goals when they’ve scored at home and it’s 8/12 when they’ve scored more than one.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.75, Various


Super Lig: Karabukspor v Antalyaspor (Sat, 11:30)

Both teams feature highly in the Match Goals table – all seven of the host’s home games have had three or more goals as have 11 of the last 20 Antalyaspor away games. Promoted, Karabukspor have had little problem scoring at home (they’ve scored two or more in 5/7) and when Antalyaspor have conceded, 10 of their last 13 away games have been +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Bet365


League One: Plymouth v Exeter (Sat, 15:00)

There have been at least three goals in seven of Plymouth’s last nine home games, including each of the last five and in four of their five hosting middle-third teams (three +3.5 goals and 5/5 +1.5). Exeter have had over-goals in 7/10 away games this season and in 13/18 home and away. Moreover, 15 of Exeter’s 16 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last term have had at least two goals with 10 (63%) having three or more, including six of the last eight.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.98, Bet365


Scottish Division One: Partick Th. v Ross County (Sat, 15:00)

Partick Thistle are involved in a four-way scrap at the bottom of the Scottish First Division. Incredibly, 9/10 of their recent home games have had -2.5 goals with eight having -1.5 goals and eight goalless first halves. Ross County have scored just two away first half goals this season and 4/7 of their matches have been 0-0 at the interval. The visitors have been involved in 5/11 goalless first halves at bottom-half opposition.

Recommendation: HT score 0-0 2.75, Bet365


Serie A: Palermo v Parma (Sat, 17:00)

There have been at least three goals in 8/12 Palermo home games with +3.5 goals in four of the last six. Moreover, they’ve had +2.5 goals in 7/9 home games against bottom-half teams (six +3.5 goals). Parma have had +2.5 goals in half their 26 away games since the start of last season, including in six of their last nine trips to teams placed 4th-10th. Furthermore, they’ve conceded at least twice in 11/12 visits to teams placed 4th-10th since their promotion.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.91, Bet365


Austria: Kapfenberger v LASK Linz (Sat, 17:30)

LASK Linz have conceded almost twice as many away goals (29) as any other team in the league and there have been more goals Kalfenberger home games than at any other ground. Most of the goals have come in recent games – Linz’s last five away have all been +4.5 and 4/6 Kapfenberger home games have been +3.5. 16 of Linz’s last 25 matches away to bottom-half teams have been +3.5 and in all those matches they’ve kept just two clean sheets and failed to score in only seven. 11/22 Kapfenberger home games against bottom-half sides have had +3.5 goals (11/17 when they’ve scored).

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.50, Various


Eredivisie: NAC Breda v Utrecht (Sat, 17:45)

Both of these are much stronger at home than they are on the road. NAC Breda have won 7/9 home matches which has included beating the top-two – PSV Eindhoven and Twente – in their last two games. Utrecht, meanwhile, have lost 6/9 away fixtures and are yet to keep a clean sheet. They have also won just 2/11 trips to middle-third teams with five defeats.

Recommendation: NAC Breda win 2.50, Various


Ligue 1: Lorient v RC Lens (Sat, 18:00)

Lorient are habitual mid-table finishers and normally win just over 50% of their home games with the majority coming against bottom-six teams like Lens - they’ve won six of their last seven such matches.

As the winter break looms, Lens are in danger of becoming detached from safety and have won only 3/16 this season. Since they were promoted last season, they’ve lost 6/11 away to middle-third teams (3/4 this season) and conceded first in 9/11. Lorient have won 7/10 when scoring first against bottom-half teams.

Recommendation: Lorient win 1.91, Various


Eredivisie: Roda JC v Den Haag (Sat, 18:45)

Roda JC have lost just 1/18 home matches with 10 victories and the hosts have netted in the first half of all of their wins. Den Haag have lost three of their last five on the road while they were also beaten in 6/9 away games against top-half finishers last season with five L/Ls. The visitors have conceded at least three goals in 6/8 away matches against top-half non-Big Two sides and five of their losses have been by two clear goals.

Recommendation: Roda JC win -1 2.38, Bet365


Premier League: Bolton v Blackburn (Sun, 13:30)

Despite their lofty league position of sixth, Bolton have won just 3/8 home matches this season. The hosts have failed to score on two occasions, but in the other six game they have netted at least twice and conceded at least once. As a result, they have had six +2.5 and five +3.5 goals games. Furthermore, since the start of last season half (5/10) of their home games against middle-third sides have settled the +3.5 goals market. Blackburn have been thrashed 7-1 (at Old Trafford) and 4-2 (at White Hart Lane) in their last two away fixtures and thus have extend their poor record at top-half teams. Since 2009/10, they have lost 10/14 such matches with 11 +2.5 goals and six +3.5 goals games.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.40, William Hill


Serie A: Roma v Bari (Sun, 14:00)

Roma have won five consecutive home games and they’ve had 13 W/Ws in their last 25 home matches, as well as six in their last nine hosting bottom-half teams. Bari have lost 15/22 away games and eight of their last 10 overall with six L/Ls. Moreover, they’ve conceded at least three goals in each of their last three trips to Big Four teams and Big Four sides have had W/Ws in 57% of home games against bottom-three teams since 2005/06.

Recommendation: Roma W/W 2.15, Bwin


La Liga: Mallorca v Racing (Sun, 16:00)

There have been fewer than three goals in seven of Mallorca’s last eight home games as they’ve conceded just twice, and in seven of their last eight hosting bottom-half teams. Racing have had -2.5 goals in 4/7 away games this term and in nine of their last 11 trips to top-half non-Big Four teams.

Recommendation: -2.5 goals 1.85, Betfair


Super Lig: Ankaragucu v Fenerbache (Sun, 17:00)

Whilst Fenerbache have scored plenty of away goals this season, they’ve also conceded in 6/7 and two or more in four of those. Ankaragucu have conceded in 6/7 at home and six of their last 10 at home to top-six sides have had +2.5 goals as have 7/9 Fenerbache visits to middle-third teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Various


Belgium: KV Kortrijk v Lierse (Sun, 19:30)

Kortrijk have won 10/11 home games with seven W/Ws and six wins by at least two goals. Moreover, they’ve won each of their last six home games against bottom-six teams with five by at least two goals and all six being W/W doubles. Lierse have won only once all season with six defeats in nine away games including a 7-0 thrashing in their last match. Furthermore, they’ve been beaten by two goals in two of their three trips to middle-third teams.

Recommendation: Kortrijk win -1 2.25, Bet365


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