Football / Preview / Topline 06 11 2010

Topline (06/11/2010)

This week's Topline is made up of 13 recommendations and includes a big 3.40 pick in Birmingham v West Ham on Saturday.

Birmingham's Scott Dann


Bundesliga 2: Erzegebirge Aue v F Dusseldorf (Fri, 17:00)

Promoted Aue have won 4/4 home matches this season with three clean sheets. Their opponents Dusseldorf have lost to nil in 4/5 on the road so far and they have been beaten in 4/7 trips to top-half sides since 2009/10. Top-half sides have won 58% of home matches against bottom-six sides at this stage of the season since 2005/06.

Recommendation: Erzegebirge Aue Win 2.00, Various


Portugal: Vitoria FC v Rio Ave (Fri, 20:15)

These are two teams that figure prominently for -1.5 goals home and away respectively and that’s largely because both struggle to score and have failed to do so in almost half their home and away games. 9/19 and 10/19, home and away respectively have been -1.5 goals. Away to bottom-half teams and 8/12 Rio Ave matches have been -1.5 and at home to bottom-six sides, Vitoria have scored in only 2/7 at home.

Recommendation: -1.5 goals 2.70, Sportingbet


Argentina: Estudiantes v Lanus  (Sat, 00:20)

Estudiantes are the league leaders and have won their first five at home without conceding. Although all have been against bottom-half teams, they did win 4/6 at home to top-half teams last season and have lost only twice in 24 home matches with 18 wins and 15 of those W/W. Lanus have lost 3/7 away to top-half teams since the start of last season. Both teams have a history of low scoring and it’s worth noting that eight of Estudiantes last 11 home wins have been 1-0 or 2-0 as have four of Lanus’ seven away defeats.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: 0.5pt Correct Score 1-0 6.25, Bwin
                                                           0.5pt Correct Score 2-0 7.00, Stan James


Romania: Pandurii Targu-Jie v Targu Mures (Sat, 12:00)

Pandurii have struggled so far this season while their promoted opponents seem to be coping with the jump in standard well. Four of the hosts six home matches this season have seen no more than a single goal and since the start of last season 19/23 of their games have settled the -2.5 goals market while 14 have featured -1.5 goals. The Romanian new-boys have had 3/6 -1.5 goals and 4/6 -2.5 goals so far this term.

Recommendation: -2.0 goals 2.05, Bet365


Premier League: Birmingham v West Ham (Sat, 15:00)

Birmingham seem to suffering from second-season syndrome. The Blues finished ninth last term but they are available to back at 3.70 to finish in the top-half this season.  The hosts are notorious for their low-scoring home matches – 4/5 -2.5 goals this season – and as a result they are involved in a lot of stalemates. They have drawn 2/5 home games so fare this season and almost half (11/24) of their home matches since 2009/10. West Ham have a dreadful away record, but although they are winless in 10 trips to bottom-half sides they have shared the points on five occasions.

Recommendation: Drawn match 3.40, Various


Austria: Kapfenberger v LASK Linz (Sat, 17:30)

Both of these sides have had typically slow starts to the season. Eighth-placed Kapfenberger only avoided relegation last season because Austria Karnten were particularly awful while LASK Linz finished two spots above their opponents last term, but are rock-bottom after 10 games this time round. The hosts have won just 1/6 home matches so far but they have been tied at the break on four occasions while Linz are winless in the road so far. They have failed to net before the break in five of the matches and have drawn the first half four times also. Kapfenberger’s record does improve to W5-D3-L3 when they have hosted fellow bottom-half opposition since 2009/10, but incredibly they have been level at the break in 10 of the 11 games.

Recommendation: HT draw 2.30, Bet365


Argentina: Boca Juniors v Argentinos (Sat, 23:30)

Five of Boca’s home matches this term have seen both teams score and at least three goals which has extended their over goals tendencies from last term. Since 2009/10, 17/25 of their home games have settled the +2.5 goals market and they have failed to net only once. Over the same period, Argentinos have had 12/20 +2.5 goals games when they have conceded and they themselves have scored in 11/13 on the road.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.10, Paddy Power


Bundesliga: Hannover v B Dortmund (Sun, 14:00)

Borussia Dortmund’s tactics of fielding their youngest ever team appears to be paying dividends. The visitors are top of the Bundesliga after 10 games which has included winning all five of their away fixtures (three +3.5 goals). 10 of Hannover’s 22 home matches since the start of last season have seen at least four goals as have half of Dortmund’s away games.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.00, William Hill


Portugal: Naval v Olhanense, (Sun, 16:00)

Despite changing managers over the summer, Naval are currently bottom of the Superliga having accrued just four points from nine games so far. The hosts have drawn the first half of 7/11 home matches and the same has been true in 6/8 home games against middle-third opposition. Olhanense follow a similar trend with 13/19 HT stalemates since 2009/10 which has included all of their six trips to bottom-six sides.

Recommendation: HT Draw 2.00, Bet365/Coral


Czech: Brno v 1. FK Pribam (Sun, 16:00)

6/7 of Brno’s home matches this season have seen at least three goals while five have featured four or more which includes their 7-0 demolition of Slovacko last time out. Stretching back to the start of last season, 14/22 of their home fixtures have settled the +2.5 goals market as have 5/6 of their games hosting bottom-six opposition. While not as strong as Brno, Pribam are also an over goals team. 11/21 of their away matches have contained more than a brace of scores while this increases to 11 in 18 when they concede – Brno have netted in 18/22 home fixtures.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.05, Bet365/William Hill


La Liga: Villarreal v Athletic Bilbao (Sun, 16:00)

Villarreal may have dropped some points on the road in recent weeks but their home record remains impeccable. They have recorded W/W double results in 11/12 home matches and they have kept a clean sheet in nine of their victories including all four this season. Bilbao have suffered L/Ls in both of their last two away matches. Ironically, their defeats were to two of Villarreal’s challengers for a Champions League spot – Sevilla and Valencia. The visitors have picked up just one point from seven trips to top-six sides and three of their defeats were L/L doubles.

Recommendation: Villarreal W/W 3.00, Bwin


Ukraine: Metalist Kharkiv v Simfrepol (Sun, 17:00)

All of Metalist’s seven home matches so far this season have settled the +2.5 goals market while three have featured at least four goals. The hosts have scored in all seven games and conceded in six of them. Simfrepol have been similarly entertaining this season, 6/7 of their away fixtures had had +2.5 goals and 4/7 +3.5.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.80, Titanbet


Argentina: San Lorenzo v Independiente (Sun, 20:20)

Champions of two years ago, San Lorenzo have fallen away from such a lofty position but are still a confirmed top-half team. This season they are showing signs of being more proficient scorers at home (they failed to do so in 7/19 last season) and so far this season, have scored two or more in 4/6. When they have scored at home 13/16 have been +2.5 goals. Independiente have had +3.5 goals in 4/6 away matches and kept one clean sheet in their last 11 away  and conceded first half in nine of those 11.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.38, William Hill/VC



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