Group E: Basle (Bettorlogic ranking 57) v Roma (23) (Weds, 19:45)
Basel’s 3-1 victory at Roma in the reverse of this fixture on Matchday 3, opened up Group E massively. Both of these two sides (and Cluj) are tied on three points at the halfway stage. Prior to their victory at the Stadio Olimpico, Basel had picked up just one point from their previous eight Champions League matches which included losing all four home games with three L/Ls. Roma have a reasonable away record in this competition; they have won four and lost five of their 10 such group games since 2006/07. When we look more closely, however, we see their four victories have come from the six games where they have been the higher ranked side. Italian sides with a Bettorlogic rank of 11+ have won 7/10 unbeaten away group matches against teams ranked 51+ since 2005/06.
Recommendation: Roma Win 2.63, Boyles
Group E: CFR Cluj (169) v Bayern Munich (7) (Weds, 19:45)
Cluj’s 3-2 home defeat to Bayern last time out was their sixth successive +2.5 goals Champions League match. The hosts’ only previous campaign in 2008/09 was similar to this one in that they started with a victory but failed to impress after that. Bayern have performed better in Europe than they have domestically this term, last season’s finalists sit seventh in the Bundesliga after 10 games but they have won all of their three games in Group E so far. The visitors have won 8/13 away group matches since 2005/06 but five of their victories have been by exactly one goal. They have drawn the first half in seven of these games and also in three of their six unbeaten — W4-D2-L0 — trips to teams ranked 51+.
Recommendation: HT draw 2.25, Bet365
Group F: Chelsea (2) v Spartak Moscow (63) (Weds, 19:45)
Chelsea’s home record in the Champions League is formidable. Since 2005/06, they have won 12/16 undefeated group matches with nine W/W doubles and 13 clean sheets. Perhaps surprisingly, two of their four draws have come from their five games against sides ranked outside the top-50 while they have failed to score more than twice in any of the games. This is Spartak Moscow’s first appearance in this tournament since 2006/07. The visitors won 1-0 at Marseille in their opening away fixture but they have been beaten in all of their seven trips to top-10 ranked sides this century with six defeats-to-nil. English sides have kept clean sheets in 5/6 home matches against Russian opposition since 2000/01.
Recommendation: Chelsea Win to nil 1.91, Paddy Power
Group F: MSK Zilina (142) v Marseille (21) (Weds, 19:45)
Minnows Zilina remain stuck on zero points at the foot of Group F. The Slovakians have scored just one goal and their greatest achievement so far is holding Marseille to a stalemate in the opening 45 minutes of the reverse of this fixture. Marseille have a poor record on the road; since 2007/08, they have lost 7/10 away group games and they haven’t led at half-time in any of them. It should be noted, however, that they haven’t faced a team ranked outside the top-100 in this sample. Teams ranked 101+ are winless in 18 games hosting sides ranked 11-30 since 2005/06 – W0-D7-L11 – and eight of the games have seen fewer than two goals.
Recommendation: No bet