NB Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to live (non-dead rubber) Tests not involving minnows played in the last 10 years.

Tea: Australia 293/4 (Clarke 73, North 62), lead by 180 runs

There are still potentially 32 overs to be bowled by England in the final session although, with the game headed for a draw, it is likely to be fewer. In the past four years there have been 32 games similarly destined for a stalemate at tea, with the batting side adding, on average a further 70 runs. Just over half (17/32) of the teams made more than the 62 that would take Australia past the higher spread of 455 with 13 making fewer than 47.

Australia 2nd Innings Runs 340-355 (SI)

Australia 375 Runs or more 2.71 (Betfair)

Clarke Runs 94-98 (SI)

North Runs 83-87 (SI)

Lunch: Australia 172/4 (Clarke 12, North 4), lead by 59 runs

Excluding teams who made fewer than 300 runs without being bowled out, just over half (40/78) of the teams reaching 165-180 for four in their second innings have made fewer than 295. The average score made by the teams that batted for 120 overs or fewer is 285, with a third of those teams going past 310. Australia have been in the position eight times, making fewer than 295 only twice — averaging 305 from the five in which they batted for 120 overs or fewer. England have restricted the batting side to fewer than 295 in 10 of their 18 games in the field of the sample, allowing six of 16 teams to make more than 310 of those that batted for no more than 120 overs.

There have been 32 Tests in the last 30 years with the side batting third leading by 35-85 runs with four wickets down, having made 220-300 in their first innings. their average score in those innings is just 230, with only six teams going past 310 and more than three quarters (25/32) making fewer than 295.

Michael Clarke averages 71 in the second innings of Tests once past 10, with eight 50s in 22 games (including four unbeaten scores of fewer than 48). Overall in both innings, Clarke averages 71 in Tests once past 10, reaching 50 in half (25/50) of his times at the crease (excluding those in which he was left not out for fewer than 40 runs). Over the last two years he has made fewer than 48 in just 10 of his 27 such innings, averaging 78.33.

Match odds: England 4.9, Australia 75, Draw 1.27 (Betfair)

Australia 2nd Innings Runs 295-310 (SI)

Australia 325 Runs or more 2.17 (Betfair)

Clarke Runs 48-53 (SI)

North Runs 32-36 (SI)