NB Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to live (non-dead rubber) Tests not involving minnows played in the last 10 years.

Stumps: Australia 88/2 (Watson 34, Hussey 18), trail by 25 runs

Excluding sides that made fewer than 300 without being bowled out or batted for more than 130 overs, the average score made by teams having reached 75-100 for two in their second innings is 277, with just under half making fewer than the lower spread price of 269. Australia's average score from 18 such innings is 324, making more than 284 in all but five of those games. The 22 sides batting against England in that sample average 280, with only eight making in excess of 284.

In the last 30 years, there have been 55 matches with a side 0-50 runs behind in the third innings of a match at a score of 75-100 for two. Excluding again those who made fewer than 300 without being bowled out or batted for more than 130 overs gives an average score of 265 from 39 innings with more than half (22/36) making fewer than 269. The batting side went W5-L23-D11, although in only eight of the games (W1-L6-D1) did the match take fewer than 300 overs (currently 192).

Since making 145 not out against India at Sydney at the start of 2008, Michael Hussey has not reached 50 in 15 times at the crease in the second innings (including an unbeaten 45), averaging 21 in that time. He averages 67.5 overall (45 runs per innings) in the second innings once in double figures, bringing up his half-century five times out of 21 (four times left unbeaten short of 50). In either innings, he has gone past 60 in 17 of 46 (37%) once he has 15 or more on the board — but has done so in only four of 20 such innings dating back to the start of the 07/08 India series.

Match odds: England 5.9, Australia 120, Draw 1.21

Australia 2nd Innings Runs 269-284 (SI)

Australia 300 Runs or more 2.04 (Betfair)

Watson Runs 67-72 (SI)

Hussey Runs 55-60 (SI)

Tea: England 316/7 (Broad 20, Swann 4), Australia 263

Just under 100 sides have got to 300-330 for seven in their first innings in the last 10 years, going on to an average score of 377, with a little more than half (55/98) not reaching the lower spread of 372. England made it to 372 in fewer than two thirds (6/19) of their innings, averaging 356. Teams batting against Australia 376 from 10 such innings, with seven sides making fewer than 372.

In the last 30 years, 46 teams have reached 290-340 for seven in reply to a first innings total of 220-300. They average 362, with two thirds (31/46) failing to get up to 372. 33 Teams have had a 25-75 run lead in the second innings of the match with three wickets remaining over the last 10 years, going W21-L3-D9 — but winning only four of the last 10 such Tests.

Match odds: England 7.8, Australia 60, Draw 1.16

England 1st Innings Runs 372-380 (SI)

England 375 Runs or more 2.03 (Betfair)

Broad Runs 37-41 (SI)

Swann Runs 19-23 (SI)

Lunch: England 159/4 (Bell 46, Prior 0), Australia 263

The average score made by teams reaching 140-180 for four in their first innings is 328, with just more than half (51%) of the teams falling short of the lower spread price of 314. 71% made more than Australia's 263 although as many (45%) failed to reach 300 as went past 324 (45%). England have been batting in 23 of the matches, averaging 306 and maknig fewer than 314 in 13 of them — exceeding 263 in 18. Australia have allowed an average score of 312 when bowlig in this position, restricting their opponents to fewer than 263 in nearly half (9/20) of those games, with seven teams going past 324.

Over the last 30 years, there have been 80 matches with the team batting second getting to 140-180 for four in reply to a first innings total of 220-300. The average score made is 300, with moer than half (42/80) falling short of 300 and only just over half (45/80) making more than 263. The numbers in England are similar, averaging 301 from 16 games with nine teams making in excess of 263 and only four more than 324.

Ian Bell averages 97 (82 runs per innings) in Tests once in the forties, falling for fewer than 78 58% of the time, with seven centuries. His record in the first innings is better (109, 89 runs per innings) with seven scores of 83 or more. Indeed in his last eight such innings at home he has made five centuries as well as a 97.

Match odds: England 14, Australia 28, Draw 1.11

1st Innings Lead: England 1.19, Australia 4.5 (Betfair)

England 1st Innings Runs 314-324 (SI)

England 325 Runs or more 2.2 (Betfair)

Bell Runs 78-83 (SI)

Prior Runs 30-35 (SI)