UBS Hong Kong Open, Hong Kong GC
Introduction
The ‘2009’ Hong Kong Open was the second event on the Race to Dubai and this year’s (2010) edition is the last chance for players to break into the top 60 before the Dubai World Championship next week. The top two in the Race to Dubai Rankings — Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy — are both in Hong Kong this week, as are a number of the players on either side of the top 60 threshold, including Darren Clarke (63) and Bradley Dredge (57).
The winners of the last five Hong Kong Opens are also in the field, with Lin Wen-Tang returning to defend his title after edging out McIlroy in a playoff last year, alongside two-time champion Miguel Ángel Jiménez and former winners Colin Montgomerie, José Manuel Lara and Simon Dyson.
Key Stats
- In its time on the European Tour, seven of the players ranked in the top 20 in the world coming in to Hong Kong have ended in the top three, including three of the eight winners in that time.
- Seven of the eight champions since 2001 had recorded at least one top-five finish in the eight weeks prior to the tournament.
- Four of the last six winners had won a European Tour event in SE Asia prior to winning the Hong Kong Open and all six had been in the top 10 before.
Current form
Lee Westwood comes in to the Hong Kong Open as the form player off the back of his ninth top-10 finish in his 10 events since the US Open in Shanghai last week. Only two players have played this event (in its time on the European Tour) in anything approaching that level of form on a major tour, with Colin Montgomerie winning in 2005 and Paul McGinley finishing 26th the year before.
While none of the winners since 2001 (the Hong Kong Open’s first year as a European Tour-sanctioned event) have arrived in quite that form, the recent winners have all been on a solid stretch of results, with each of the last five having had at least two top-10 finishes in the last eight weeks and seven of the eight having three or more top 20s over a 12-week period. Just six of this year’s field have managed both of those: Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, Charl Schwartzel, Darren Clarke and Marcus Both.
In addition, of the eight winners since 2001, just Fredrik Jacobson in 2002 had not had at least one place finish in the eight weeks prior to playing in Hong Kong and half of the eight were coming in off a top-10 finish in their last event. Among the more notable players to have not finished in the top five of any tournaments over the last eight weeks are: Robert Karlsson, YE Yang, Søren Kjeldsen, Ben Curtis and Miguel Ángel Jiménez.
Looking at longer-term form trends, each of the last six winners had recorded three or more top-five finishes and at least six top-10s in the last year and seven of the eight had had nine or more top-20 finishes in that time. 13 players in this field have achieved each of those: Westwood, Ian Poulter, McIlroy, Kjeldsen, Jiménez, Molinari, Anders Hansen, Simon Dyson, Thongchai Jaidee, Schwartzel, Rafael Cabrera-Bello Gaganjeet Bhullar and Keith Horne.
Tournament form
Of the eight winners of this event since 2001, only Miguel Angel Jiménez two years ago came in to the week with a strong record in Hong Kong (having finished 1st, 38th and 6th previously). The last three winners had played in the competition at least twice before but prior to that only the 2001 winner, José María Olazábal (played in ’98 as an Asian tour event) had experience of the course.
While a good track record in Hong Kong has not been common to the recent winners, four of the last six (two were Jiménez) had won in SE Asia on the European Tour before, five had had at least one top-five finish and all had been in the top-10 in a European Tour event in the region. The best-ranked players with a European Tour win in SE Asia are: Poulter, Yang, Jiménez, Dyson, Graeme McDowell, Thongchai Jaidee and Jeev Milka Singh.
While there is little in the (relatively brief European Tour) history of winners here to suggest that a good course record is necessary to perform well (McIlroy and Lin had both missed the cut in 2007 before going to playoff last year, for example) there are a number of players with notable records at the Hong Kong course. Jiménez leads the way with his two wins and another top 10, while Thongchai Jaidee’s run of consecutive top 10s here stopped at three after finishing 19th last year. Søren Kjeldsen, Francesco Molinari, Jyoti Randahwa and Jarno Sandelin have all also had multiple top-10 finishes here previously.
Winner/Each-way
Rory McIlroy’s (10.0) strong showing here last year and his sensational final round at Sheshan have led to him being installed as favourite this week, just ahead of Lee Westwood (12.0). Both of the favourites show up strongly in our rankings and are among a handful of players that match most or all of the past winners’ criteria.
There are two others that match all of the current form criteria of past winners — Francesco Molinari (21.0) and Charl Schwartzel (29.0) — while Ian Poulter (21.0), Thongchai Jaidee (29.0) and Anders Hansen (41.0) all show up well also.
We would probably give Molinari the edge given his form and excellent (8th, 29th & 2nd) record here but he fares poorly in a head-to-head comparison with the two favourites — finishing above both Westwood and McIlroy in only one of the 24 tournaments the three have played together on the European Tour over the last two years. Westwood has dominated that matchup, outscoring the other two in more than half (15/24) of those tournaments as well as top-scoring in seven of the nine the three have played alongside Poulter in that time. This, allied with his fantastic current form, makes the world number four the best choice this week for us.
Molinari’s form (10th at the HSBC Champions last week and runner-up to Westwood in Portugal four weeks ago) and history here still make him look a good option, while Jaidee’s combination of form (three consecutive top-20s), course record (four straight top-20s, including two top-five finishes) and success in the region earning our other selection.
Strong Recommendations
- Lee Westwood at 12.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
Recommendations
- Francesco Molinari at 21.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
- Thongchai Jaidee at 29.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)