Golf / Reaction / The Bettorlogic Golf Ratings Explained

The Bettorlogic golf ratings explained

We have developed an exciting new ratings system for golf tournaments — the Bettorlogic Golf Ratings — which ranks each player in the field in order of their performance potential for that week.

Tiger Woods plays out of a bunker

 

 

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To do this we have calculated a rating for every player's performance in a stroke-play tournament, whatever the level or the tour, and used these performance ratings to evaluate that player's current form and 'tournament form' (i.e. form in a specific event).

In order to rate each player's performances we had to produce a reliable method of evaluating the strength of each tournament and each player's performance in it. We therefore devised an algorithm to calculate a tournament's 'strength' using the world rankings of the best 50 players participating and the size of the field.

We added a 'contention' factor to each player's performance which awards points for his position after each round. A player who contends for three rounds but falls away on Sunday would score higher than a player who finished in the same position but was never on the leaderboard. Position at the end of an event naturally carries most weight but a good start is rewarded too.

We also awarded points for a player's score 'versus the field average' so that a winner who ran away from his opposition would score higher than the champion of a bunched field. The performance rating is then multiplied by the tournament strength to give a final 'player performance rating' for that event.

Current form ratings are calculated from each player's performance ratings in his last 15 stroke-play events with more recent events carrying greater weight.

Tournament form is calculated, in a similar way, from a player's performances in the last 10 years of that event. Of course not many players have played every year of an event over the previous 10 years nor has every event got a 10-year history. These variables are all incorporated into our 'tournament form algorithm'. Players with no tournament form are allocated points based on performances of past debutants of similar rank.

Whilst our extensive model trialling of historical events showed that current form and tournament form should make up the bulk of a player's rating for an impending event (although not often in equal measure), world ranking is also included to provide a longer-term ability reference. We also add in specific tournament factors which our analysis has found to influence performances in that event. For instance there is a strong correlation between good performances at Augusta and the AT&T Classic at Sugarloaf. These extra factors are incorporated and each category is weighted subjectively to provide a final rating score.

We have been able to simulate our model on a wide range of past events and the results have proved very encouraging. For Majors we found that results improved further when we integrated an extra category of 'Major form' based on a player's performances in the preceding 10 majors.

The Bettorlogic Golf Ratings do not aim to place the field in 'finishing-position order'; instead they rank the field in the order we believe a bookmaker should price his market. Where there is a significant variation between our rankings and that of a bookmaker, this should provide opportunities for outright, each-way or match-bets alike.
 

 
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