Barclays Singapore Open, Sentosa GC
Introduction
The European Tour returns to Asia for the final few tournaments before the Dubai World Championship in three weeks, starting on Sentosa Island in Singapore. The Singapore Open has been played every year since 1961 except for a three-year gap between 2002 and 2004. This is its first year on the European Tour although since its return in 2005, the event has carried a much higher purse and, as a result, drawn some bigger names to the field.
The last two winners of the event (Jeev Milka Singh and Angel Cabrera) are in Spain playing in the World Match Play, although Adam Scott (2004 & 2005); Thaworn Wiratchant (2001) and Jyoti Randahwa (2000) are amongst the former winners in this year’s field. Phil Mickelson is making his third consecutive appearance in the Singapore Open (23rd and 9th), while Ernie Els (2nd, MC and 2nd) and Padraig Harrington (2nd in 2008) have also done well here before.
Key Stats
- Only four of the 22 winners of European Tour events in SE Asia at the end of the season had missed a cut within the last eight weeks.
- 15 of the 22 had already recorded a win that year.
- Only one of the last 14 such winners had not had at least three top-five finishes in the year prior to their win.
- Of those that had played in at least two similar tournaments before, 18 of 20 had recorded at least one top 10 finish and nine had won before.
Current form
We have limited our consideration of form for the Singapore Open to the four years since its return to the Asian Tour calendar as a higher-profile tournament and, to give a greater sample, have also considered all European Tour events in South-East Asia at the end of the calendar year.
None of the past four winners here came to the event with much immediate form to talk about, with Jeev Milka Singh’s 28th the best result prior to the Singapore Open of the four. Expanding it to look at the larger sample of tournaments, nine of the 21 winners (who had played in the last four weeks) were coming off a top-10 finish and just two had missed the cut in their last tournament. Just six of the 21 (two of the three in this event) had not had at least one top-20 finish within the last four weeks while 11 of the 15 who had played in two or more events in that time had been placed in the top 10 at least once. Five of the top-12 ranked players in the field fail this criterion: Robert Karlsson, Soren Kjeldsen, Alvaro Quiros, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and Graeme McDowell.
Going back a little further, 14 of the 22 winners of these tournaments (3/4 Singapore Open winners) had recorded at least one top-five finish in the last eight weeks, including 12 of 17 of those (3/3 Singapore Open winners) who had played at least four events in that time. The majority (12/22 and 11/17 that had played four or more tournaments) of those had also had at least one other top-10 finish. Just four of the 22 had missed a cut within the last eight weeks, while 18 of the 22 had also had at least three top-20 finishes in the last 12 weeks. There are just seven players in this year’s field who have recorded three top-20s in the last 12 weeks and not missed a cut in the last eight: Padraig Harrington Soren Hansen, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Justin Rose, Ross McGowan, Damien McGrane and Keith Horne.
Looking at previous winners’ of end-of-season events form over the whole of the year, 15 of the 22 (one of four at the Singapore Open) had already won that year, while just six (and only one of the 14 in the last five years) had not had at least three top-five finishes. 15 of the 22 had had more than five top 10s and the same proportion had had at least 10 top-20 finishes. None of the players in the field have done all of those, with 12 satisfying three of them: Mickelson, Harrington, Els, Kjeldsen, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Anders Hansen, Thongchai Jaidee, Alex Noren, Rafael Cabrera Bello, Gaganjeet Bhullar, Chapchai Nirat and Keith Horne.
Tournament form
Adam Scott has the best record at this event since its return to the calendar, with two wins and a third-place finish, although — as with elsewhere — his most recent result (a missed cut last year) does not match up with his former success. Prom Meesawat is the only other player to have finished in the top 10 in three of the last four years although, like Scott, he missed the cut in 2008.
The last three winners of the Singapore Open were coming off decent showings in the event the year before (Singh 25th, Cabrera 8th and Scott 1st), with 12 of the 22 winners of European Tour events (and the Singapore Opens) in South-East Asia at this time of year having placed in the top 25 of their last event in SE Asia (at any time of year). None of the 22 was playing their first such event in this part of the world, although 10 had fewer than five tournaments experience.
Over the last five years, eight of the 16 winners of similar events had placed in the top 10 of their last such tournament, with just one player (Wen-tang Lin at last year’s Hong Kong Open) missing the cut. Alex Noren, K.J. Choi and Adam Scott are the only players ranked in the top 100 who missed the cut in their last event in SE Asia at this time of year, while there are 14 players who placed in the top 10 in their last attempt (including Mickelson, Harrington, Ogilvy, Els and Quiros).
Looking at the past winners’ records overall in SE Asia (in European Tour sanctioned events and the Singapore Open), just four of the 22 had not had at least one top-10 finish. Excluding those that had played in only one such event in the past, 18/20 had had a top-10 finish and nearly half (9/20) had won there previously. 18 of the 22 winners had played in a European Tour event in SE Asia (or the Singapore Open) at the end of the year before, with 14 of them having placed in the top 20 before (11/18 had been inside the top 10).
Winner/Each-way
The two marquee names are similarly priced to win this week, with Mickelson (9.5) slightly favoured over Harrington (10.0). Mickelson’s extenuating circumstances mean he has played in fewer tournaments than he would normally have done, which is ruling him out from a couple of the past winners’ criteria.
Harrington matches more of the past winners criteria than Lefty — indeed the most of anyone in the field — failing only on his lack of a win this year. His form is exceptional however, and only two players have gone in to similar events with five or more top-fives in the last 12 weeks — both of whom (Sergio Garcia and Tiger Woods) won. There is little to choose between them but we would give the Irishman the slight edge and look for him to go one better than his runner-up position from last year.
Other players who closely match the profile of past winners are Soren Hansen (26.0), Thongchai Jaidee (41.0), Miguel Angel Jimenez (51.0), Ross McGowan (81.0), Rafael Cabrera Bello (101.0) and Keith Horne (251.0). Of that group, we would go for the Asian Tour’s money leader, Jaidee, who has won two of the last three European Tour events in Asia and has been in the top five of two of his last five such tournaments at this time of year. Horne has been in good form on the Asian Tour, with three top 10s in his last four events and has had some success on this course before (making all four cuts with best finishes of 15th and 21st).
Strong Recommendations
- Padraig Harrington at 10.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
Recommendations
- Thongchai Jaidee at 41.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
- Keith Horne at 251.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)