Portugal Masters, Oceânico Victoria GC
Introduction
The Algarve plays host to the second of three Iberian-based events on the European Tour, with the Portugal Masters the penultimate stroke play tournament in Europe before the Race to Dubai moves to Asia for its climax. This is only the third year on the Tour for the Portugal Masters and the fourth time the course has hosted a Tour event — having also staged the 2005 World Cup.
Alvaro Quiros won by three shots from Paul Lawrie last year, with the 2007 champion, Steve Webster finishing in a tie for third. While Webster (27th amongst the field) and Quiros (13th) are among the better-ranked players in this year’s field, both were surprise winners at the time with neither ranked in the top 200 in the world (or 50 in the field) prior to their victory.
Key Stats
- Both previous winners of the Portugal Masters had finished in the top 20 in one of their last two tournaments, as had 14 of the 17 winners of European tournaments held at this time of year since 2001.
- Only four of those 17 winners (neither of the two champions here) had already won that year.
- 13 of the 17 winners had had at least three top-10 finishes and at least five top-20 finishes in the year prior to their win.
- 12 of the 17 winners had finished in the top-five previously at the Portugal Open, Spanish Open or Madrid Open/Masters and 16 had had a top-10 finish at one of the three.
- Of the 14 winners who had played in one or more of those three events within the last year, 11 had had at least one top-20 finish and seven had had a top 10.
Current form
This being only the third Portugal Masters there is little form to go on, so in addition, we have looked at all tournaments with a similar-size field (i.e. not including the Volvo Masters) played at this time of the year in mainland Europe. Unsurprisingly, all these events have taken place in Spain or Portugal and we have taken 2001 — when the Madrid Open (now Masters) returned to the European Tour calendar — as the cut-off to expand the sample to 17 tournaments.
As mentioned above, both of the two previous winners of the Portugal Masters were ranked outside the top 200 in the world, although the majority (11/17) of the events were won by players ranked in the top 200 with roughly half (8/17) of the winners being amongst the 10 highest-ranked players in the field. Together, the top-five ranked players (this week’s five are Harrington, Westwood, McIlroy, Goosen and Karlsson) in the 17 fields had six wins, with 20% of them finishing in the top five and 41% in the top 10. They have not fared as well in this event, with only three top-20 finishes (Westwood 16th in 2008 & 3rd in 2007 and Karlsson 3rd in 2008) between them. Expanding it to the 10 best-ranked players gives four top-three finishes (Karlsson 2nd in 2007 and Fisher 3rd in addition to those above) although only three other top-20 places.
The world rankings do not appear to offer as strong an indication of performance as in some other tournaments but recent form has been a little more consistent. Seven of the 17 winners of the included events had finished in the top 10 in their previous event and only three had not had a top-20 finish within the last four weeks. Eight of the 15 best-ranked players have not recorded a top-20 finish in the last month: Retief Goosen, Robert Karlsson, Ross Fisher, Soren Kjeldsen, Ben Curtis, Alvaro Quiros, Graeme McDowell and Thongchai Jaidee.
Looking further back, only five of the 17 winners had missed more than one cut in the preceding eight weeks, while 12 of them had had at least one top-five and two or more top-20 finishes within the past 12 weeks. Karlsson, Fisher, Kjeldsen, Curtis, Quiros and McDowell all fall down again on one or both of those criteria as does Anders Hansen. Interestingly, none of the 17 past winners of these events had won within the past 12 weeks and only four of them had tasted victory that year prior to their win. Also, 13 of the 17 had recorded at least three top 10s and five top 20s that year. Only six of the top-20 ranked players in the field match all those criteria: Padraig Harrington, Lee Westwood, Ross Fisher, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Peter Hanson and Francesco Molinari.
Tournament form
The course appears to be one some players have taken a liking to, with nine of this year’s field have finished in the top 20 in each of the past two years. Robert Karlsson (2nd in 2007 & 3rd in 2008), Ross Fisher (7th & 3rd) and Steve Webster (1st & 3rd) have placed in the top 10 on each occasion and the first two have broken par in all eight of their rounds here — as have Alvaro Quiros, David Lynn and James Kingston.
A familiarity with the regions courses certainly appears beneficial, with 16 of the 17 winners of autumn tournaments in Spain or Portugal since 2001 having placed in the top 10 in one or more of the Portugal Open, Spanish Open or Madrid Open/Masters (the only who hadn’t — Ross McGowan — had a best finish of 12th). 12 of the 17 had actually had a top-five finish at one of those three (including both former winners of this event) and, of the 14 winners who had played in one of the three in the past year, 11 had had at least one top 20 (seven had had a top 10).
36 of the field have recorded at least one top-10 finish at one of those three events in the past and at least one top 20 in the last year, with the best-ranked being: Miguel Angel Jimenez, Alvaro Quiros, Francesco Molinari, Alexander Noren, Charl Schwartzel and Anthony Wall.
Winner/Each-way
There are four players in the field who fit all of the current and tournament form criteria: Miguel Angel Jimenez (51.0), Gareth Maybin (81.0), Ignacio Garrido (81.0) and David Drysdale (101.0). However, allowing for players who have not played in any of the Spanish Open, Portugal Open or Madrid Masters in the last year but have enjoyed success at one or all of them in the past, adds three more to that list: Padraig Harrington (13.0), Lee Westwood (17.0) and Peter Hanson (56.0).
After seven top-10 finishes in his last eight tournaments, we like Lee Westwood to pick up his first win in two years here. As well as his current form, he has the best record (16th in 2008 & 3rd in 2007) here of the group of players listed above, breaking 70 in six of his eight times round this course.
Of the others, our favourites would be Jimenez and Drysdale. Like Maybin and Garrido, both are coming off strong showings in Madrid last week but their putting ability should give them a slight edge over the latter pair on the course’s tough greens.
Strong Recommendation
- Lee Westwood at 17.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
Recommendations
- Miguel Angel Jimenez at 51.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
- David Drysdale at 81.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)