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Castello Masters

36.0 shot Anthony Wall is in a strong position to land the place money for Bettorlogic followers with 18 holes to play at the Castello Masters.

Anthony Wall


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Castelló Masters, Club de Campo del Mediterráneo

Introduction

After nearly a year, the Race to Dubai is down to its final month, with five tournaments remaining before the Dubai World Championship. This week’s event, the Castelló Masters, is the last stroke play tournament in Europe (the World Match Play Championship also takes place in Spain next week) before the Tour moves on to Asia.

Last year’s Castelló Masters was the first time the tournament had been staged and was won by Sergio Garcia, playing on his home course where his father is still the club pro. Garcia is the best-ranked player in the field but this week also sees the return of world number 12 Martin Kaymer after seven weeks out with a broken foot and also features Angel Cabrera making his first appearance on the European Tour since the Scottish Open.

 

 

Key Stats

  • Nine of the 12 winners of autumn tournaments in Spain or Portugal since 2005 had played in at least three similar events before. Of those nine, eight had had at least one top-five finish in them previously.
  • 15 of the 18 winners of European tournaments held at this time of year since 2001 had finished in the top 20 in one of their last two tournaments.
  • Only four of those 18 winners had already won that year.
  • 14 of the 18 winners had had at least three top-10 finishes and at least five top-20 finishes in the year prior to their win.
  • 12 of the 18 winners had finished in the top-five previously at the Portugal Open, Spanish Open or Madrid Open/Masters and 17 had had a top-10 finish at one of the three.

 

 

Current form

As with last week’s Portugal Masters, the lack of history of this tournament has led us to expand our sample to look at all tournaments with a similar-size field (i.e. not including the Volvo Masters) played at this time of the year in mainland Europe. Including last week’s result, this gives us 18 events since 2001 (the Castelló Masters, Portugal Masters, Mallorca Classic and Madrid Open/Masters) to consider.

Of those 18, less than half (8/18) have been won by players ranked in the top 100 in the world, although this is slightly due to the varying quality of fields at the events. Looking at ranking within the fields and the majority (10/18) have been won by players amongst the top 12 that week. Most of the winners had had a recent strong showing, with nearly half (8/18) placing in the top 10 in their prior event and two thirds having placed in the top-20. Just four of the 18 had not been in the top 15 in their last tournament (having played it in the last month) or in an event within the last two weeks — with each of the eight winners of these events since 2007 having done so. There are 18 players in the field who match that criterion, and just six who were placed in the top 10 in their last event: Peter Hanson, Justin Rose, Charl Schwarzel, Johan Edfors, Danny Willett and Marcel Siem.  

Going back a little further, just five of the 18 winners had not had a top-10 finish in the last eight weeks (10/18 had had a top five), while 13 of 18 had had at least one top-five place within the 12 weeks prior to their victory. Over the longer term, only four of the 18 had won earlier that year, although 12 of 14 since 2004 had had three or more top 10s that year and 14 of 18 overall had had three or more top 10s and five or more top 20s. There are 24 players in the field matching all of those criteria, nine of whom also placed in the top 15 either in their last event or within the last two weeks. Edfors is the only one of the six mentioned above who is not in this group with Anthony Wall, David Drysdale, Ignacio Garrido and Fabrizio Zanotti the other four. 

 

 

Tournament form

Sergio’s current form is good rather than outstanding but the top-ranked player is streets ahead of the rest in terms of tournament form. As well as is his win here last year, Garcia has played in six of the other 17 similar tournaments we are looking at, recording one other win (the 2004 Mallorca Classic), finishing runner-up in two more and has a worst place of 17th (in Madrid two weeks ago).

As well as Sergio, just three of the 12 other players who finished in the top 10 (including ties) of last year’s Castelló Masters are returning this year: David Lynn (4th), Peter Hanson (7th) and Mikael Lundberg (9th). There are seven players in this year’s field who broke par in each of their rounds in 2008: Garcia, Lynn & Lundberg as well as Ignacio Garrido (15th), Phillip Archer (20th) Maarten Lafeber (20th) and Gary Orr (24th).

In the last five years, nine of the 12 winners of the similar tournaments had played in at least three previously and, of the nine who had, eight had finished in the top five at one of them previously and six had had multiple top-20 finishes. 28 of this year’s field have achieved both of those with Garcia, Robert Karlsson, Peter Hanson, Charl Schwarzel, Johan Edfors and Darren Clarke the only players ranked in the top-15 in the field to have done so. 

Also, 17 of the 18 winners of autumn tournaments in Spain or Portugal since 2001 have placed in the top 10 in one or more of the Portugal Open, Spanish Open or Madrid Open/Masters (the only who hadn’t — Ross McGowan — had a best finish of 12th) previously. 12 of the 18 had actually had a top-five finish at one of those three and, of the 14 winners who had played in one of the three in the past year, 11 had had at least one top 20 (seven had had a top 10). 28 of the field have recorded at least one top-10 finish at one of those three events in the past and at least one top 20 in the last year, with the best ranked being: Sergio Garcia, Søren Hansen, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castaño, Charl Schwarzel, Anthony Wall, Rafael Cabrera Bello and Danny Willett. 

 

 

Winner/Each-way

Sergio Garcia (7.0) is a very short-priced favourite for this event and it is not hard to see why on his home course and given his record (two wins, four top-twos and seven top-20s in seven) in similar tournaments. The only  past winners’ criteria he falls short on is not having had a top-15 finish in either his last event or the last two weeks but given that he came 17th in Madrid last time out, it is hardly enough to exclude him, although we feel there is better value to be found elsewhere in the field.

There is one player who does exactly fit each of the criteria though: Marcel Siem (61.0). The German has broken par in each of his last 12 rounds, including a 67-69-67-67 last week in Portugal en route to his best finish (4th) of the year to date.

Others who match the majority of the criteria are: Charl Schwarzel (21.0), Peter Hanson (21.0), Danny Willett (29.0), Anthony Wall (36.0) and Ignacio Garrido (51.0). Of this group, Hanson and Garrido have been the least consistent (the other three have at least seven top-10s this year) and we would favour the experience of Schwarzel and Wall over Willett.

 

  

Strong Recommendations

  • Marcel Siem at 61.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)

Recommendations 

  • Charl Schwarzel at 21.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
  • Anthony Wall at 36.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)


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