Alfred Dunhill Championship, Leopard Creek CC
Introduction
Less than three weeks after Lee Westwood triumphed in Dubai and the European Tour is ready to do it all over again, with the 2010 season getting underway in South Africa this week. This tournament was the first in the country to be co-sanctioned by the European Tour — in 1995 — originally in a dual role as the South African PGA. 2000 was its first year as just the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the tournament shifted from a January/February start date to its current place in the calendar in 2004. That year’s event (the 2005 championship) was also the first year at Leopard Creek, having been played at Houghton GC from 1996 (and at the Wanderers Club in 1995).
Ernie Els is the strong favourite this week, as one of only two top-50 ranked players in the field — the other being Anders Hansen (49) — and having won this event three times before (2006, 1999 & 1995). Els is joined in this year’s field by three of the other four men to win at Leopard Creek: defending champion Richard Sterne, 2008 winner John Bickerton and the first winner at this venue, Charl Schwartzel.
Key Stats
- Four of the 15 winners of the Alfred Dunhill Championship were ranked in the world’s top 10 at the time of their win but only one other winner was in the top 150.
- Seven of the last 10 winners that had played in the tournament before had previously finished in the top 10.
- Only one of the 15 winners had had more than one top-five finish in the four months prior to their victory in the event and 10 of the 15 had had one or none in the year preceding their win.
Current form
Six of the last 10 winners of the Alfred Dunhill Championship are currently ranked in the top 100 in the official world rankings (and last year’s winner Richard Sterne is number 105) but there has been an element of surprise to each of their victories. Of that group, only Els was ranked in the top 100 at the time of his win — and that was just his second tournament back after knee surgery. Of the other nine, Richard Sterne (113 when he won last year) is the only player ranked in the top 150 to win, with Adam Scott (168 in 2001) and Justin Rose (163 in 2002) the only other top-200 ranked players to win.
This is partly due to the timing of the competition and thus the strength of field with an average of 16 of the world’s top 200 players competing in the last 10 years (17 this year). Still, more often than not a player from outside that group has won in that period, including a number of up-and-coming players (the last 10 winners having an average age of 26, with only two older than 27).
The greenness and/or low ranking of the winners of this event is reflected in their form prior to the win, with Richard Sterne (two) last year the only player ranked outside of the world’s top 10 with more than one top-five finish in the preceding year to win the event since 1995. Indeed, excluding the ‘obvious’ winners — Els was ranked in the top 10 for all three of his wins here as was Nick Price in 1997 — eight of the 10 other victors with any form to go on (Quiros had played only two non-Challenge events in the year prior to his win) had missed at least six cuts in the year prior to their win and the last five had all missed at least 10. The best ranked players in this week’s field fitting that (latter) ignominious criterion are: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Robert Rock, Damien McGrane, Oskar Henningsson, Michael Jonzon, Richie Ramsay, Hennie Otto, Michael Hoey and Markus Brier.
The Alfred Dunhill’s place in the calendar at the start of the European Tour season means that most of the players had not played a lot in the weeks prior to it, with just five of the 15 winners here having playing more than once in the month preceding the event. Of those, four had had a top-10 finish in that time and all had had a top 20. Just seven players in the field have placed in the top 10 in the last month: Ernie Els, Grégory Bourdy, David Dixon, François Delamontagne, Shiv Kapur, Alejandro Cañizares and Jbe’ Kruger.
The lack of recent form to go on requires us to look a little further back at how players finished the previous season to get a better handle on their more recent form. The last five years have been played roughly four months after the final major, with all three of the winners of this event (that had played multiple events in that time) having finished in the top 20 at least twice since then. Overall, eight of the 13 that had played in at least two events in the 16 weeks prior to the Alfred Dunhill had had multiple top 20s, although only one had had multiple top-five finishes. The top-ranked players in this field with one or no top 20 finishes since the USPGA are James Kingston, Richard Sterne, Gareth Maybin, Shane Lowry, Rhys Davies and Robert Rock. Ernie Els, Anders Hansen and Rafael Cabrera-Bello are the only European Tour-based players with multiple top-fives in that period.
Tournament form
Ernie Els is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in tournament form, having finished in the top 10 in all of his nine appearances in the event in its time on the European Tour. Seven of the nine have been top-three finishes, with three wins and most recently a runners-up spot last year. Of the rest of the field only three players — Anders Hansen, Charl Schwartzel and Alan McLean — have had more than two top 10s in the event before. Schwartzel in particular has fared well at Leopard Creek, winning in its first year and finishing second in the following two.
A degree of past success appears useful if not necessary with, of the last 12 winners here, only two (Scott and Quiros) making their first appearance in the event — and seven of the other 10 having previously finished in the top 10. Just two (Shane Lowry and Rhys Davies) of the top 20-ranked players in the field have not taken part in this tournament before, with Edoardo Molinari, Grégory Bourdy, Nicolas Colsaerts, Gareth Maybin, David Drysdale and Ignacio Garrido the only players of the other 18 not to have previously finished 10th or better. Having said that, less than a third (11/34) of the top-five finishers in the last seven years that had played in the tournament before had had a top-10 finish previously.
Winner/Each-way
The history of winners in the Alfred Dunhill Championship is split into four obvious candidates (Els three times and Nick Price once) and 11 lesser lights. Els is once again the man to beat but his form in the last year (no wins & three places in 27 events) does not compare with his records going into his three triumphant years (three & six in 19, one & five in 22 and two & eight in 25). This, coupled with his somewhat erratic immediate form (2nd in Shanghai, 50th in Dubai most recently) make him hard to like at a price as short as 6.0 with some books.
There is certainly a case to be made that he should not be any shorter than Charl Schwartzel (14.0) who, like his compatriot, has an excellent record at Leopard Creek (a win and two second places in five appearances). He also struggled in Dubai (53rd) but his form prior to that — three finishes of 11th or better in four events — tops that of Els.
Schwartzel appears the most likely winner although, as we have detailed, this has not necessarily always been an event that has produced a likely winner. Those in the field who fit the bill of a player with some recent form, a mixed longer-term record and that have enjoyed some success in this event (if they have played) are: François Delamontagne (56.0), David Dixon (76.0), Michael Jonzon (101.0), Michael Lorenzo-Vera (101.0), Shiv Kapur (151.0) and Andrew Coltart (176.0). Of that group, our preference would be for Kapur and Lorenzo-Vera, with their ability on the greens giving them the edge on a course that has somewhat favoured the better putters in the past.
Strong Recommendations
- Charl Schwartzel at 14.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
Recommendations
- Michael Lorenzo-Vera at 101.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)
- Shiv Kapur at 151.0 e/w (1/4 1-5)