Related Content

Football / Reaction / Serie A Title Race

Serie A Title Race

10 games into the season and the Serie A table has a surprise leader in the shape of Lazio as Bettorlogic analyse the chances of the leading contenders.

Inter Milan's Maicon

 

10 games into the season and the Serie A table has a surprise leader in the shape of Lazio, although the other clubs at the top are largely as expected with AC Milan, Inter and Juventus filling the next three places.

Since the 2002/03 season no side outside the current Big Four has topped the table at this stage before Lazio and below them things are far more congested than usual, with the eventual champions having been at least six points clear of fifth in six of the past eight years.

However, the top three spots have been filled by the Big Four in seven of the past eight seasons (in 2006/07 Juventus were in Serie B and the other three finished 1st, 2nd and 4th). Furthermore, the past 13 champions have been in the top four or level on points at this stage and so the title looks set to be decided between Inter, Milan and Juventus.

In fact since 2002/03 there have been 21 Big Four teams tied-fourth or better at this stage and 19 have finished in the top three (one year had all four in the top four positions at this stage and they all finished there too).

Of these three contenders Inter have been champions for the past five years, while Juventus have finished top-three in 10 of their past 12 years in Serie A and have spent heavily in the past two seasons. Meanwhile AC Milan have failed to finish in the top two for the past four terms and have benefitted from easier fixtures than their rivals to this point. In contrast Juventus have travelled to both Inter and Milan and are improving after a slow start to their campaign, while Inter have had the toughest start as they’ve travelled to Palermo, Genoa and Roma as well as meeting Juventus at home.

Lazio’s fast start is a good sign for their season as 11 of the past 13 champions have been tied-second or better at this stage and five of 11 non-promoted non-Big Four teams tied-fourth or better since 2002/03 have finished in the top four. However, bearing in mind Roma’s recent improvement and the fact 5/8 Big Four teams to be 1-6 points off fourth at this stage have finished in the top four (none won) there is more value to be had in backing Lazio in the winner without the Big Four than to finish in the top four at a shorter price.

Recommendation: 0.8pt Inter to win at 2.5, 888 Sport
                                   0.2pt Juventus to win at 7.0, Betfair
                                   Lazio to win without the Big Four at 2.75, Unibet

 
© Copyright 2024 Bettorlogic
/football/reaction/serie-a-title-race