Seven games into the season we commented on how Bayern Munich’s slow start to the season may have already cost them the title and while eight points from their four matches since then suggest an improvement they are now a massive 12 points behind leaders Dortmund with a third of the season gone. Despite this they remain second favourites at 3.75.

In the past 13 seasons back to 1997/98, only once has the champion been outside the top six after 11 games and in 11 of those years they were in the top four. Furthermore, six champions were already leading by this stage. Also, all three leaders at this point to hold at least a four point advantage over second-place finished as champions.

While the bookies still suggest Bayern retain a decent chance history suggests otherwise, with none of the Bavarian’s eight titles in the past 13 seasons coming from more than four points off the lead at this stage. On the six occasions they’ve been more than two points off the pace (four times four points back and twice six points) they’ve emerged as champions just twice. Furthermore, the furthest back any champion has been is nine points, which Wolfsburg clawed back two seasons ago, although the leaders at the time were newly promoted Hoffenheim, and only one other team has come from more than four points adrift.

Of course, there are other contenders besides Bayern, but of the top seven pre-season favourites excluding Dortmund the only teams closer than Bayern are Hamburg at 10 points adrift and Leverkusen at seven – both on the limit of being too far back. Furthermore, Dortmund have an easier set of fixtures until the winter break (six games away) than any of their rivals and after an early exit in the German Cup and likely departure from the Europa League they should be free to concentrate on domestic matters. As such the 2.1 available for them to win looks a massive price.

Recommendation: Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at 2.1, Various