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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Blackburn v Bolton

Bolton make the short trip across Lancashire this weekend to face former manager Sam Allardyce’s Blackburn. However, they are without their best defender, with England hopeful Gary Cahill out as he continues his recovery from a blood clot in his arm.

Since the start of last season Cahill has been the bedrock of Bolton’s defence as he’s played 55 of their 63 games and his importance to the Trotters is highlighted by their failure to win any of the eight matches he’s missed as they’ve drawn three and lost five.

In fact without the former Aston Villa player Bolton have managed to score only twice and they’ve trailed at half-time in four of their five defeats. As a result of their inability to score, Bolton have only seen over 2.5 goals in two of their eight matches without Cahill compared to an average of 49% with him.

Arsenal v Sunderland

Sunderland haven’t won since beating Arsenal 12 matches ago and make the daunting trip to the Emirates without two of their best players this season with Lee Cattermole suspended and Andy Reid injured. Through a combination of injuries and suspensions Cattermole has played only nine of the Mackem’s 25 games this term and while they’ve lost only a third of those matches with him, they’ve lost half of their 16 without.  Furthermore, Sunderland have been beaten by two or more goals in 31% of the 16 matches he’s missed as their average goals conceded has risen from 1.44 per game with him to 1.81 without. Similarly without Reid, the Black Cats have struggled as their average goals scored have fallen by 29% from 1.19 in the 37 games he’s played to 0.85 in the 26 he’s missed, and they’ve lost only 16% by two clear goals with him compared to 35% without.

Siena v Napoli

For the second week in a row Napoli are missing a key midfielder through suspension with Walter Gargano missing out this week as he serves a one match ban. Gargano has become a key member of the current successful Napoli side and has played 45 of their 62 game since the start of last season.

With Gargano in the team Napoli have won 42% of their matches compared to just 18% without, while their loss rate has increased from 29% to 47%. The net result of this has been for Napoli’s points per game average to fall by 44% when he’s not played – down from 1.56 to just 0.88.

This big drop in results is not surprising given they’ve conceded 16% more goals whilst scoring 40% fewer when he’s been missing. Moreover, they’ve not won any of the last 10 away matches that the Uruguayan has missed – with six defeats – despite making six trips to bottom-half teams and only one to a Big Four team.

Barcelona v Racing Santander

Racing travel to the champions without their leading scorer Mohammed Tchite after the striker was red-carded last week. Since the start of last season Tchite has played 28 of Racing’s 60 games with their average goals scored falling from 1.29 per game to 1.16 when he’s not played. His presence has been even more significant on the road as he’s hit the net seven times in his 13 appearances – nobody else has managed more than two – as Racing have averaged 1.31 goals per game with him compared to just 1.06 in the 17 games he’s missed. This in turn has resulted in just 24% of their away games without him having over 2.5 goals.

Hoffenheim v Borussia M’gladbach

Hoffenheim are without one of their key midfielders with Brazilian Luis Gustavo suspended, as they try to correct a run of poor form. Gustavo has played 42 of 56 games since the start of last season and the holding player’s presence has resulted in a PPG of 1.60, which drops to just 1.14 in the 14 matches he’s missed. There’s also been a big fall in the number of matches with over 2.5 goals when he’s not been playing – down from 67% with him to just 36% without.