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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Napoli v Inter Milan
Napoli’s game-plan last weekend at Udinese went out the window just before half-time when Christian Maggio was given his marching orders after a dive brought a second yellow-card. It was an eventful 44 minutes all-round for Maggio, as he’d earlier committed the foul to concede the penalty for Udinese’s first goal before scoring the equaliser himself.
The absence of the former Sampdoria player should be a big blow for the Azzurri, particularly given the stature of their visitors this Sunday, with Inter nine points clear at the top of Serie A. Maggio’s form, since moving to Napoli before the start of last season for a reported £10 million, has led to international recognition with two caps for Italy and he’s been a regular goal threat from the right wing.
Since 2008/09, Maggio has played 41 of Napoli’s 61 matches and his impact is clearly shown by the large disparity in results with and without him. Napoli’s win percentage falls from 44% with Maggio to just 20% without him, while their loss rate has increased from 32% to 40%, resulting in a net fall in their average points per game of 36%, from 1.56 with Maggio to just 1.00 without.
Moreover, the goal threat he carries is highlighted by their average goals scored falling from 1.46 to 0.75, and they’ve failed to score in five of their nine home games he’s missed. As a result of their troubles finding the net without Maggio, the number of games with over 2.5 goals has also taken a big dive, down from 61% with him to 30% without, including just two of nine at home. Furthermore, six of the last eight home games that he’s missed have been goalless at the break.
Sevilla v Osasuna
Sevilla have lost five of their last seven matches and their cause has not been helped by the suspension to Alvaro Negredo who was sent off last weekend in the defeat at Real Zaragoza. The former Real Madrid striker has made a big impact since signing this summer, including a brilliant double strike in their win over Valencia a fortnight ago.
The stats reflect his impact as well, as Sevilla have scored 1.75 goals per game with him compared to just 0.80 without. This has resulted in them winning nine and losing four of their 16 matches with him, while they’ve lost three of the five he’s missed, for a fall in their PPG of 36% to 1.20.
Gijon v Valencia
David Barral was sent off for Gijon in their defeat last weekend and his loss looks to have significantly weakened Gijon’s hopes of causing an upset this weekend. The Spanish striker has played 34 of Gijon’s 59 games since the start of last season and Gijon have lost nine of the last 12 matches he’s missed, while overall their average goals scored have fallen by 26% from 1.29 per game to just 0.96. Furthermore, Gijon have lost six of their nine matches against top-half teams when Barral has been missing, including five defeats by the L/L double.
Bordeaux v St Etienne
Alou Diarra is missing for the French champions after picking up a thigh injury that should rule him out for another week. The defensive midfielder has player 51 of Bordeaux’s 61 games since the start of last season and while Les Girondins have been dominant when he’s played, averaging 2.27 points per game, they’ve struggled without him as they’ve won only three of 10 whilst losing four times to average just 1.20 PPG.
Moreover, they’ve struggled in defence without the French international as they’ve conceded an average of 1.40 goals per game, compared to just 0.75 when he’s played. This in turn has resulted in an increase in games featuring over 2.5 goals; up from 47% with him to 60% without.