Football / Reaction / Have Germany Peaked Too Soon

Have Germany peaked too soon?

Germany got off to a flyer on Sunday evening when they thumped Australia 4-0 while other favourites England, France and Italy have made more ponderous starts.

Germany's Cacau celebrates scoring against Australia

 

Germany have seen their price shorten from 15.0 to 10.5 on the back of their impressive opening and the omens are certainly promising for Joachim Loew’s side as nine of the last 10 World Cup champions won their opening match (one draw) and of the six top-five Bettorlogic ranked sides since 1970 to open their campaign’s with a win by three or more goals half have gone on to lift the trophy (France ’98, Germany ’90, Brazil ’70) with another reaching the final (Netherlands ’78). The other two teams in this sample fell at the last-16 stage.

Since eight of the last 10 winners have been top-10 ranked sides (the others were ranked 11 and 12) we’ve looked at top-10 teams’ opening results and how they proceed in the tournament. Australia are ranked 25 places below Germany at 30 and there have been 11 previous top-10 teams that had a supremacy of two or more against a side ranked at least 20 places below them in their opener with 2/11 going on to lift the trophy, and another finishing as runner-up. Of the 22 teams that had supremacy of less than two in such matches there were no winners, although four teams lost in the final and three in the semis. The only other top-10 team to play a side ranked 20 or more places below them so far has been Argentina who won by just a single goal.

In the previous 10 World Cups 17 top-10 nations lost their openers with three eventual finalists and no winners. A further 22 drew their first match – as England, France and Italy have done here – with three finalists including one champion (Italy ’82). 25 sides won by a single goal of which two went on to be champions with another two being runners-up. And 18 sides won by two clear-goals – the Netherlands and Germany – with five winners from six finalists. Of the two winners who were not ranked in the top 10 one won their opener by a single goal and the other did by exactly two.

However, while an impressive start gives a good indicator of overall success only three of eight top-10 teams to win their first match by at least three goals have won all three group matches with half failing to win their second game.



 

 
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