England’s disappointing draw with the USA has seen their odds lengthen for winning the World Cup (9.2) and to finish top of the group (1.59).

Readers of our World Cup preview will have noted that nine of the last 10 World Cup winners all won their opening match (Italy drew all three first group stage matches in 1982) whereas beaten finalists have won 5/10 opening games and lost three.

The good news for England fans is that they should still qualify. 22 Top 10 ranked teams have drawn their first match since 1970 and only the Czech Republic in 1982 failed to progress. Eight of the 22 teams still managed to win their group but five were in groups in which both opening matches finished all square. That leaves five of the 17 winning the group and on that basis England should be laid at 1.61.

13 of these 22 teams have been qualifiers since the second group stage was abolished after 1982. Seven went out immediately after qualifying; four made the semi-finals; two went one step further but none have been crowned champions. One of the four to make the semi-finals was England in 1990, although they were helped by winning the group and it was one of those occasions when both first matches were drawn. In fact, England were the only team to win a match in their group.