Football / Preview / World Cup Tuesday 6Th July

World Cup: Tuesday 6th July

Uruguay and the Netherlands battle it out for the first Final spot and we feel there is value in both the Match Outcome and Over/Under Goals markets.

Wesley Sneijder



Uruguay (Bettorlogic rank 7) v Netherlands (2) (Tues, 19:30)

Uruguay will be without the services of five key squad members for this game after they all picked up bookings in their clash with Ghana, however it is striker Luis Suarez who will be most missed (following his now infamous ‘Hand of God’ incident in the dying moments of extra-time). Although, the South Americans have twice formerly won this tournament they are appearing in their first semi-finals since 1970 – they lost 3-1 to Brazil in Mexico.

Since 1970 they have contested 10 Copa America semis, losing just twice in normal time – W4-D4-L2 with seven -2.5 goals games. Over the same period, Uruguay have faced top-five ranked opposition 18 times with three wins, eight draws and seven losses in 90 minutes. Incredibly, 15 of the games have seen fewer than three goals. Further, they are yet to face a top-five ranked side so far in this tournament although they did play France (8) and Mexico (11) in their group and they remain undefeated. Teams that drew their last match after winning their previous game have tied four of nine semi-finals against top-five ranked teams with eight -2.5 goals games. However, just three of the 13 World Cup semi-finalists that had drawn their quarter-final since 1970 have reached the final.

The Netherlands reached the semi-final by beating Brazil 3-1. They were the first team since pre-1970 to beat the Samba Boys after trailing at half-time. Teams that have beaten the top ranked team in their previous knockout match have won their next fixture on just four occasions from 13 attempts. Moreover, the Dutch have failed to qualify in five of their six semi-finals since 1976 with four draws after 90 minutes and three defeats on penalties. In knockout matches, the Netherlands have qualified in only one of seven games against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 6-10 which has included two defeats in normal time, two in extra-time and two on penalties. Five of the seven fixtures settled the -2.5 goals market.

Generally, 13 of the 16 (81%) World Cup semi-finals since 1970 have seen fewer than three goals while 10 (63%) have been drawn at the break and seven (44%) have been won by the higher-ranked team. Four of the six semis that have been drawn involved a team that had gone to extra-time in their quarter final. The higher-ranked team are undefeated, however, when they have won their previous match – W6-D4-L0. Although low-scoring matches are common, just one of the 16 World Cup semis have ended 0-0 while 12 have had a goal before the 50th minute.

Recommendations: -2.5 goals 1.63, Extrabet
                                      Drawn match 3.70, Bwin

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