England (Bettorlogic Rank 8) v Germany (5) (Sun, 15:00)

Sunday afternoon England and Germany resume a rivalry that has spanned generations as they meet for the sixth time in major finals since 1970. Despite never having lost in 90 minutes to the Germans in these past five meetings – W1-D4-L0 – England have still been sent packing in all three knock-out matches as in 1970 they lost in extra-time and then in 1990 and 1996 were famously beaten on penalties.

Both countries have good knockout records in major tournaments with England having lost just 2/14 matches since 1970 in 90 minutes and Germany just 8/38. However, England have qualified in just six of 14 occasions with a W1-L5 record in penalty shoot-outs. Also, nine of their 14 matches have been level at half-time.

Germany have qualified from 27 of their 38 knockout matches at finals tournaments and have won all of their last 16 matches at World Cups since 1986, although just one of those matches was against a top-10 team. Furthermore, the Germans have been level at half-time in half their 38 knockout games.

There have been 43 World Cup knockout matches between two top-10 teams since 1970 with the higher ranked team W12-D15-L16 and going W0-D11-L4 after extra-time, although they’ve an excellent record in penalties with nine wins out of 11.

Also, there have been 24 World Cup first knockout matches since 1970 where one team won fewer than six points in their group, the other won at least six and both teams were separated by no more than 10 ranking positions. In these matches the team with the better group record – in this case Germany – went W12-D6-L6 and qualified in 15 of 24 matches. However, looking just at neutral matches and the record becomes slightly more even at W9-D6-L5 with 11 half-time draws.

Recommendation: Germany to qualify 2.00, Coral
                                   Half-time draw 2.10, Coral

Argentina (3) v Mexico (12) (Sun, 19:30)

These teams met in the semi-finals of the 2007 Copa America with Argentina coming out on top 3-0, although that is the only win by more than one goal in the five finals meetings between these sides since 1993 as Argentina have W2-D2-L1 with a W2-D1-L0 record in knockout matches.

Argentina’s recent record at the World Cup in knockout games is not great as they’ve failed to win a match since the quarter-finals in 1990 with five draws and three defeats, as they progressed in half those encounters. However, they’ve won five of eight finals matches against teams ranked 11-20 since 2000 with five wins by two-clear goals, although they won just one of three World Cup games in that sample.

Mexico will be desperate to break their sequence of being knocked out at this stage in the past four World Cups and since 1994 they’ve lost just 4/19 World Cup games and only one by more than a single goal. Moreover, this sample includes nine matches against top-10 teams of which they’ve lost just two and neither by more than one goal.

There have been 25 neutral World Cup knockout matches between a team ranked 11-20 and a top-10 side with the lower ranked team going W3-D12-L10 with seven defeats by more than one goal. 13 of these matches had at least three goals and 13 were also level at half-time draws. More specifically there are 17 matches from the first knockout round in this sample with the lower ranked team going W1-D8-L8, although just four of the defeats were by more than one goal.

Recommendation: Asian Handicap Mexico +1.0 1.97, Betinternet