Uruguay (Bettorlogic rank 7) v Korea Republic (34)

Uruguay finished top of Group A after drawing their opener 0-0 with France before beating both hosts South Africa and Mexico to nil. Despite historic success in the World Cup, this is Uruguay’s first appearance in the knockout stages since 1990 when they were knocked out in the Last 16 by Italy. In all finals matches they have won eight of 17 games against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 31-50 with two wins from three in knockout fixtures. Higher-ranked sides that have won their final two World Cup group stage matches have gone W6-D5-L3 in the last 16 and they have also qualified in four of the five games that were tied after 90 minutes.

Korea Republic had only previously reached the knockout stage of the World Cup when they hosted the competition in 2002. In 2002, they reached the semi-finals despite drawing both of their knockout games, while their opening victory over Greece was just their fourth in 25 finals matches. Furthermore, they have lost six of their 11 finals games against top-10 ranked sides with four draws.

Teams that have gained seven points from their group have won only seven of 22 knockout matches against sides that have gained four points. Interestingly, the higher points scorers have won all of the last four games that have been tied at 90 minutes in extra-time.

Recommendation: Drawn Match 3.45, Betfair
                                   0.5 pt: Uruguay to win in Extra Time 12.0, Betfair

USA (10) v Ghana (35)

Landon Donavon’s last minute goal not only booked USA’s slot in the knockout stages, but also put them through as group winners. Had that game ended 0-0, then Slovenia would have qualified instead. Since they hosted the 1994 edition of the World Cup, the USA have lost four of six knockout finals matches with just one victory. Furthermore, in that period they are winless in five finals matches against teams ranked 25-45 with three defeats and three -2.5 goals games.

Ghana finished second in Group D behind Germany having gained four points in their three games, netting just twice. They are also the only team from Africa that have qualified for the Last 16. Interestingly, no African team has won a World Cup knockout match in 90 minutes since 1970, although they have gone to extra-time in five of the eight games (five -2.5 goals, three -1.5 goals).  Since 2006, Ghana have won three of four finals matches against teams ranked 6-15 and three of the games settled the -2.5 goals market.

Generally, teams ranked 6-15 have won 36% (5/14) of knockout finals matches against sides ranked 26-45 since 1970 and nine (64%) of the fixtures saw fewer than three goals and seven (50%) no more than two.

Recommendation: Ghana Win DNB 2.00, Various