Football / Preview / World Cup Monday 28Th June

World Cup: Monday 28th June

The Netherlands are strong favourites to progress against Slovakia before Brazil face Chile in the evening's knockout fixture.

Brazil's Lucio

 

Netherlands (Bettorlogic rank 2) v Slovakia (37)

The Netherlands qualified from Group E in emphatic style gaining maximum points and conceding just one goal in the process. Teams that have picked up nine points in the Group Stage of the World Cup have gone W6-D3-L3 in their Last 16 match, and they went through in all three games that were tied at 90 minutes. To add to Slovakia’s worries, the Netherlands also welcomed back a fresh-looking Arjen Robben in their final game against Cameroon. The Dutch have won seven of nine undefeated finals matches against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 26-45 with five clean sheets, although only one of their wins was by two clear goals.

Slovakia had the unenviable task of needing to beat reigning World champions Italy in their final Group Stage match to progress to the Last 16, however they produced a fantastic performance to win 3-2. This is their first finals as a lone nation and, as such, they have little history to go on. Teams ranked 26-45 have lost seven of 11 knockout matches against top-five ranked sides, with just one win in regulation time, failing to score five times.

Recommendation: Netherlands Win to nil 2.20, Bet365

 

Brazil (1) v Chile (6) (Monday, 19:30)

Brazil topped the so-called ‘Group of Death’ with reasonable ease. Ironically, they kept clean sheets against Portugal and Ivory Coast, but conceded against lowly-ranked Korea DPR. Since the Last 16 phase was introduced in the 1986 World Cup, Brazil have won five of their six such matches – they have progressed out of their group in each competition – with just a 1-0 loss to Argentina in 1990 the only scratch on a perfect record. The Samba Boys have also won 11 of 19 finals matches against top-10 ranked teams in 90 minutes and a further two on penalties. Interestingly, none of the 19 games have been settled in extra-time while 11 have seen fewer than three goals and just five were W/Ws or wins by two clear goals for Brazil. More generally, they have won 26 of 47 finals knockout matches against all-opposition and, while impressive, this does little to justify recommending a Brazil win at 1.53. 24 of these games have seen at least three goals and this increases to 18 in 30 when they have conceded.

Chile impressed against Spain in their final group match, but they settled for a one-goal loss – and thus a second round match against five-times champions Brazil – in the final 20 minutes. The South American’s lack of discipline once again showed, however, and they will play this game without the services of key players Gary Medel, Waldo Ponce and Marco Estrada, who was dismissed as Spain netted their second goal. Chile have been knocked out in six of their last seven finals knockout matches with five defeats in regulation time, although they have netted in five of the games. Furthermore, they have gone W2-D0-L6 in their eight finals matches against Brazil since 1970, with Brazil winning their only World Cup meeting 4-1 in France 1998.

The higher-ranked side has won four of five all-South American World Cup knockout matches since 1970 with the exception being Argentina’s aforementioned victory in Italy and three of the matches have seen at least three goals. Finally, over the same period, nine teams have face top-five ranked opposition in a finals knockout match having lost to a top-five ranked team in their previous fixture and seven have been beaten in 90 minutes while none have gone to extra-time.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Various
 

 
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