Netherlands (Bettorlogic rank 2) v Brazil (1) (Fri, 15:00)

This is the first time since 1986 that the top-two Bettorlogic ranked sides have met in the World Cup. In all finals the top-two have faced each other on seven occasions since 1970 – Brazil have been involved in five of the matches and the Netherlands just one – and five of the games have been drawn at 90 minutes, with one win for the lower and one for the higher ranked side while six have seen both sides net. When we extend the search to two top-five ranked teams facing each other in finals, we see that 44% (21/48) of the games are drawn and 61% (29/48) are level at half-time, while 29 have seen both sides score and 24 at least three goals.

The Netherlands are one of just two teams that have won all of their World Cup games so far – Argentina are the other – however teams that have won their last four finals matches have gone W1-D4-L5 in their next game since 2004. Furthermore, stretching back to 1970, similar teams have won just two of 13 finals matches against top-five ranked teams with six draws and eight -2.5 goals games. Both teams have scored in nine of the fixtures. The Netherlands have a fantastic record against top-five ranked teams in finals with 11 wins from 20 games and they have also progressed in five of their nine such knockout games – eight both teams to score and seven +2.5 goals.

Brazil reached the quarter-finals with an emphatic 3-0 victory over fellow South American’s Chile. Such was the nature of their win that Brazil were quickly established as firm favourites to lift the Jules Rimet trophy. The Samba Boys have gone through in both of their previous World Cup knockout matches against the Netherlands, although the Dutch won their Group Stage clash in 1974. Further, they have won nine of their 17 finals matches against top-five ranked opposition with 12 half-time draws and 10 +2.5 goals games. Furthermore, the ratio of over goals to under goals games increases to 9:4 when they concede.

The stats for this game look strong for a drawn match, a half-time draw, both teams to score and +2.5 goals. As such, we would recommend backing both teams to score with an added interest in the 2-2 correct score.

Recommendation: Both teams to score 1.95, Sportingbet
                                   0.5 pt: Correct score 2-2 20.0, Betfair

Uruguay (7) v Ghana (34) (Friday, 19:30)

Uruguay required a brace of goals from Luis Suarez to dispatch Korea Republic and reach their first World Cup quarter-final since 1970. Including that match – a 0-0 draw with Russia in which they won 1-0 in extra-time – Uruguay are undefeated in seven quarter-finals since 1970 with four wins in regulation time. Only once have they been knocked out at this stage – to Colombia in the 1993 edition of the Copa America – while six of the games have seen both teams score and five have settled the +2.5 goals market. The South Americans have also won 14 of their 33 finals matches against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 21-40 (15 +2.5 goals) and their record is W5-D4-L2 in similar knockout stage fixtures with both teams netting on eight occasions. Moreover, all of their last five games have seen at least three goals and they’ve won three of their last five by the 2-1 scoreline.

Ghana were worthy winners in extra-time against the USA and their prize was a first-ever appearance in the quarter-finals of the World Cup. The Black Stars have played seven African Cup of Nation’s last-eight matches since 1992 and none of the games were tied at full-time — W4-D0-L3. Bucking this trend is the stat that, five of the 11 World Cup quarter-finals since 1970, in which at least one of the two sides have drawn their previous match, have also been drawn — W3-D5-L3 with five +2.5 goals games and six HT draws. Ghana are just the third African nation to reach this stage of the World Cup, after Cameroon and Senegal both drew their quarter-finals matches with England in 1990 and Turkey in 2002 respectively - both sides were eliminated in extra-time.

There have been six previous quarter-finals between teams ranked 6-11 and 21-40 and, surprisingly, the higher-ranked team has never won in 90 minutes. Five of the six clashes have gone to extra-time and four have been decided on penalties. South-American teams have won just one of five World Cup quarter-finals against teams from the same continent as the tournament’s hosts.

Recommendation: Drawn match 3.25, Skybet