Football / Preview / Topline 23 10 2010

Topline (23/10/2010)

This week's bumper edition of Topline contains 16 strong recommendations including a call on Lille v Marseille on Sunday evening.

Marseille's Andre-Pierre Gignac



Romania: FC Timisoara v Uni Cluj (Fri, 16:30)

Timisoara have seen both teams score and at least three goals in all of their five home matches this season. Furthermore, they have had +2.5 goals in 7/10 home games against promoted sides and +3.5 goals in 4/10. Promoted Universitea have netted in four of their five on the road so far and three of the games have seen more than three scores.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.20, Boyles


Finland: FF Jaro v AC Oulu (Sat, 12:00)

It’s the last weekend for Finland and as you would expect there are some interesting prices as motivation becomes an issue for some teams. Although AC Oulu desperately need the points for survival, hosts Jaro will still believe they can claim a Europa League slot. Jaro have won 6/9 at home to bottom-six sides, and promoted Oulu have lost 5/6 away to top-six sides, which includes a 5-0 defeat in their last away match.

Recommendation: FF Jaro Win 2.25, Various


Championship: Watford v Scunthorpe (Sat, 15:00)

Watford have scored at least twice in 5/6 home matches this season and they have conceded in all of their games, four of which have seen at least four goals. Scunthorpe have shown similar over-goals tendencies, with 4/6 +2.5 and 3/6 +3.5 goals on their travels so far this term. Since the start of last season Watford have had 17/29 home +2.5 goal-games and Scunthorpe have had 19/29 on the road while both have seen 11 games feature more than three scores.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.00, Sportingbet


League One: Swindon v Leyton Orient (Sat, 15:00)

Swindon have had a sluggish start to the season, much as they did last year. Leyton Orient have been consistently poor away losing 18/29 since 2009/10 and 4/6 this season. Swindon have scored in all their home games this season and were blanked only three times last. When conceding away, Orient have lost 18/25 and 8/10 away to bottom-half teams.

Recommendation: Swindon Win 2.00, William Hill


Czech: Mlada Boleslav v Viktoria Plzen (Sat, 17:20)

Leaders Viktoria Plzen take their 100% away record to fifth placed Mlada Boleslav and it should be their toughest test because the hosts have won 4/6 at home this season. They’ve also scored at least three goals in 4/6, as have Plzen in 3/6 away. Boleslav when conceding at home since 2009/10 (16/21) have had +3.5 goals in 8/16 and it’s 6/11 for the visitors when conceding away in the same period.

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.35, Bet365


Eredivisie: NEC Nijmegen v Groningen (Sat, 18:45)

Since 2008/09, NEC have won only two of their 16 home matches against top-half teams and in the same period, Groningen have lost only twice away to middle-third sides, winning 4/8 last season. NEC have conceded first in 10 of those 16 matches and have a W1-D3-L7 record against any opponent since the start of last season. When taking the lead, Groningen have lost 5/13 since 2009/10 but four of those defeats were against top-six opponents

Recommendation: Groningen Win -0.25 2.15, Victor Chandler


Belgium: KC Mechelen v Germinal B (Sat, 19:00)

Mechelen are unbeaten at home having scored in five of their six games while Germinal B have lost 5/6 away fixtures, although they have had to travel to the current top three. The hosts have won 8/9 home matches against bottom-six sides while Germinal have lost 8/11 at top-half sides.

Recommendation: KC Mechelen Win 2.05, Stan James


Portugal: Sp Braga v Olhanense (Sat, 21:15)

Runners-up last season, Sporting Braga have continued to maintain their excellent home form and have now won 17/18 with nine of those by more than a goal. Visitors Olhanense have lost only 6/18 in the same period (won only once) but all but one of those was by more than a goal and all six defeats were away to top-six sides. Under new management this season, Olhanense have shown some signs of improvement but they’ve faced only one top side in their seven games when they lost 2-0 at Porto. Braga have lost twice this season but those were trips to the current top two, Porto and Benfica

Recommendation: Braga Win -1.5 2.75, Bet365


Argentina: Quilmes v Banfield (Sat, 22:30)

All five of Banfield’s away matches this season have been level at the break which is a continuation of last season when 16/19 were tied after 45 minutes. Only seven of their 24 away games since 2009/10 have had a first half goal which is unusual for a team that won the league. Promoted, Quilmes have been all square in four of their six home games but it should be noted they have conceded in 4/6.

Recommendation: HT draw 2.10, Stan James


Poland: Gornik Zabrze v Lech Poznan (Sun, 13:45)

Promoted Gornik are yet to score in the opening half of any of their five home league games this season but they have kept a first half clean in their last four. The visitors, reigning champions Lech Poznan, have had a slow start to this campaign which has included 3/5 away defeats although they have been tied at the interval in all of their games. Since the start of last term they have been level at the break in 14/20 away fixtures and also in 8/9 trips to top-half sides.

Recommendation: HT draw 2.00, Various


Serie A: Udinese v Palermo (Sun, 14:00)

These two teams are showing every sign of matching what they did last season – Udinese near the bottom of the table and Palermo in the top six. Away to bottom-six sides, all eight Palermo games since 2009/10 have been +2.5 goals as have 4/6 for Udinese in the same period at home to top-six teams. Over a longer stretch, 14/18 Udinese home games against this group have had three or more goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.93, Bet365


Switzerland: St Gallen v Basel (Sun, 15:00)

St Gallen have conceded first in 10/13 home matches while Basel have had W/W double results in 5/8 away games against bottom-half sides. St Gallen have trailed at the break in all of their last six games hosting teams placed 1st-3rd in the table and they have gone on to lose five of the matches.

Recommendation: Basel W/W 3.00, Bwin


Ukraine: Karpaty Lviv v M Donetsk (Sun, 18:00)

Karpaty Lviv are a strong home side and have won 5/6 this season and lost only twice since the start of last season. M Donetsk have lost half their away games since 2009/10 and six of eight in the period when away to top half non-Big 2 sides (Karpaty have won 5/6 against similar opposition). What is unusual about Karpaty home wins is that rarely are they ahead at half-time – only 3/13 home wins since 2009/10 have been W/W – but it should be noted that 8/11 Donetsk away losses in the same period have been L/L. Our strategy would be to back the Home D/W at 5.0 and cover the stake with the W/W at 3.1.

Split Stake: 2/3 pt Karpaty Lviv D/W 5.00, Unibet
                      1/3 pt Karpaty Lviv W/W 3,10, Bwin


Mexico: Toulca v Puebla (Sun, 18:00)

Toulca have won 14/22 home matches since 2009/10 with 10 victories by two clear goals and 12 W/Ws. Interestingly, they have won only 2/7 over the same period when they haven’t been in-front at the break. Puebla have seen L/Ls in all of their last four away fixtures and nine of their 11 defeats on the road since 2009/10 have been L/Ls. The visitors have a decent record of W1-D6-L1 when they are tied at the interval.

Recommendation: Toulca W/W 2.85, Bwin


Ligue 1: Lille v Marseille (Sun, 20:00)

It’s rare that Marseille fail to score on their travels and since the start of last season, only four teams have shut them out. Lille were one of France’s highest scoring home teams last season, failing to net just once and scoring three or more in 10/19 home games. When conceding at home since 2009/10, 9/12 have been +2.5 goals (7/12 +3.5) and it’s a similarly reasonable return for Marseille when scoring away in the same period – 12/19 +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.10, Various


Brazil: Gremio v Internacional (Sun, 21:30)

Internacional are in something of an away slump having lost six of their last seven and that belies their status as a top-six side. Gremio have won their last three at home and that includes a victory against the current leaders, Cruzeiro. One of Internacional’s problems is that this season they’ve conceded first-half in 10/15 away and 6/8 v top-half sides. Gremio have scored before the break in eight of their last nine at home and since 2008 have won 11/13 when doing so. They’ve also won 11/15 at home to top-half teams (7/11 v top six).

Recommendation: Gremio Win 2.25, Betfred / Victor Chandler


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