Group G: Ajax (Bettorlogic ranking 21) v Auxerre (57) (Tues, 19:45)
With giants Real Madrid and AC Milan facing each other in match day’s three and four, both of these sides have a great opportunity to gain a foothold towards the top of Group G. Since 2002/03, Ajax have won 7/16 home group stage matches and, perhaps surprisingly, nine of the games have featured fewer than three goals. Their record improves considerably to W5-D1-L0 when they play host to lower-ranked opposition however, while four of the games have still settled the -2.5 goals market. Auxerre have got off to a poor start to their Champions League campaign after losing 2-0 at the San Siro and then 1-0 at home to Madrid. Since 2002/03, the visitors have won just 2/8 group stage matches and six of the matches have seen no more than a brace of scores, while five have been goalless at the interval. Since 2005/06, teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 11-30 have won 24/34 home group matches against teams ranked 41-60 with 19 -2.5 and 13 -1.5 goals games.
Recommendation: Ajax Win 1.70, Tote
Group G: Real Madrid (5) v AC Milan (13) (Tues, 19:45)
This game probably represents the highlight of the third round of games for most neutral fans. In typical Mourinho-fashion Real Madrid have won their opening two Champions League group stage matches 2-0 and 1-0 respectively, but this hasn’t stopped the fans getting upset because of lack of excitement. Since 2005/06, Madrid have won 12/16 home group matches with eight victories by two clear goals, however their record worsens to 2/5 wins when they have faced teams ranked 6-20. Over the same period, AC Milan have lost just 3/13 away group matches and six of the games have been tied at the interval, while the Italians won this corresponding fixture 3-2 at the Bernabeu last season. Top-five ranked sides have won 19/26 home group stage matches against teams ranked 6-20 since 2005/06 with 14 W/W double results.
Recommendation: No bet
Group H: Arsenal (6) v Shakhtar Donetsk (12) (Tues, 19:45)
As the two strongest sides in this group, it is not massively surprising that both have picked up maximum points from their opening two games but something has to give now. Arsenal’s recent home group stage form is exemplary. Since 2005/06, they have gained 42 of a possible 48 points with nine W/Ws and 10 victories by two clear goals. Shakhtar should not be underestimated in Europe. The Ukrainians have been improving steadily over the past five seasons or so and lifted the UEFA Cup in 2009. They have won 4/7 away fixtures in this competition since 2007/08 which has included victories at Benfica and Barcelona. The visitors have scored in six of the games and have trailed at half-time just once.
Recommendation: No bet
Group H: Braga (52) v Partizan Belgrade (77) (Tues, 19:45)
Braga’s maiden Champions League has got off to the worst possible start as the Portuguese side have been thrashed, 6-0 at Arsenal and 3-0 at home to Shakhtar, in their two openers. Strangely, they are regarded as a defensive team in their homeland where they relied on a multitude of 1-0 and 2-0 wins last season to finish second in the Super Liga. This is Partizan’s second appearance in this competition, but they are still searching for their first victory which has included being defeated in all of their four away fixtures. Teams ranked 41-60 have won 6/11 home group stage matches against sides ranked 15-35 places lower with four 1-0 or 2-0 victories.
Recommendation: No bet