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Football / Preview / Topline 16 10 2010

Topline (16/10/2010)

Topline returns with 10 strong selections spread across Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday including a call in Hercules v Villarreal in La Liga.

Villarreal's Nilmar


Czech: Bohemians 1905 v Slovan Liberec (Fri, 17:15)

Bohemians 1905 have scored twice in just four of their last 19 home games and, incredibly, 18 of the matches have seen fewer than three goals! Further, 10 of the fixtures have contained at most a single score, while the same has been true in a third of Slovan Liberec’s away fixtures since the start of last season. If we ignore Slovan’s freak 3-1 win at Slavia, all of their other overs games have relied on the home team scoring twice which seems highly unlikely here. The Czech league is notoriously low-scoring, hence the short prices offered on most matches, but value is still available here.

Recommendation:  -1.5 goals 2.98, Betfair


Japan: Kawasaki F v Montedio Y (Sat, 08:00)

Kawasaki have won 12/16 home matches which included a recent 4-0 victory over current leaders Nagoya. The hosts have also been successful in 7/9 home games against middle-third sides with five wins by two clear goals. Montedio have lost by two clear goals in half (12/24) of their away matches stretching back to the early stages of last season and they have also suffered the same fate in four of their last five trips to top-six sides.

Recommendation: Kawasaki Win -1.5 2.68, Bet365


Ukraine: Dynamo Kiev v Karpaty Lyiv (Sat, 13:00)

Ukrainian giants Dynamo Kiev are looking to extend their unbeaten home streak to 34 games. The hosts have won 18/20 since the start of last season with 12 W/W doubles and they have also recorded W/Ws in half of their eight home games against top-half non-Big Two opposition. While Karpaty are a better-than-average away side they tend to struggle against the toughest opponents. Under their current manager they have gained just a single point from five trips to either of the Big Two and they have lost 8/12 winless away games against top-six opponents with six L/Ls.

Recommendation: Dynamo Kiev W/W 2.35, Bwin


Championship: Derby v Preston (Sat, 15:00)

17/28 of Derby’s home matches since the start of last season have seen more than two goals while 10 of the games have had at least four scores. Preston have similar stats with 16/28 +2.5 goals and 10/28 +3.5 goals over the same period. While the visitors have started to score more frequently on the road, they are still incredibly porous at the back. In fact, they have conceded exactly four goals in four of their last six away fixtures.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.60, Bwin


League One: Peterborough v Swindon (Sat, 15:00)

Relegated Peterborough, under the stewardship of new boss Gary Johnson, have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in League One this season. The hosts have scored at least two goals in all of their five home matches thus far and they have conceded at least two goals on three occasions also. As a result, three of their five games have settled the +4.5 goals market. Swindon are an overs team in their own right. Since the start of last season, 17/28 of their away matches have seen more than a brace of goals while 10 games have contained at least four. Further, three of their five trips to top-six finishers last season also saw at four or more scores.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.00, Various


Czech: Sparta Prague v Teplice (Sat, 17:20)

Sparta Prague are a strong home team – W13-D6-L1 since the start of last season – but they are often slow starters. They have witnessed 10 goalless first halves since 2009/10 and the same has been true in 8/14 of their trips to top-half sides over the same period. Teplice have drawn the opening 45 minutes of 60% of their away fixtures since the start of last season which has included all of their last seven trips to top-six sides.

Recommendation: HT Draw 2.30, Various


A-League: Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Heart (Sun, 05:00)

Wellington continues to be a difficult place to travel to. The hosts have won 7/8 home matches with five W/Ws and, moreover, have lost just once since October 2008. The New Zealanders have been dealt another bonus after Melbourne Heart’s key-man Gerald Sibon was banned for two games after a disciplinary hearing on Tuesday. Promoted Heart have picked up just a single point from their four away fixtures this term.

Recommendation: Wellington Win 2.00, Various


La Liga: Mallorca v Espanyol (Sun, 16:00)

Despite changing managers over the summer – Danish legend Michael Laudrup is now in charge after Gregorio Manzano left for Sevilla – Mallorca remain a strong force at home. They are yet to concede at the Iberostar this term after beating both Real Sociedad and Osasuna 2-0 and restricting Real Madrid to a goalless draw. Backing the Islanders blind in every home match since 2009/10 would have resulted in a 10.6 pt profit from 22 games while last season they won 14/15 home games against clubs that finished below them in La Liga. Espanyol have lost-to-nil in 5/5 away fixtures and have suffered the same feat in 6/7 trips to top-half teams. The W/W and win-to-nil both appeal here, but we feel the home win at 2.00 is sufficient value.

Recommendation: Mallorca Win 2.00, Various


Romania: FC Brasov v U Craiova (Mon, 18:30)

Brasov’s 0-0 draw with Gaz Metan last time out extended their unbeaten home streak to nine games and previous Romanian sides on a similar unbeaten run have lost just 7/32 home matches. Universitea produced a fantastic display to beat promoted Targu Mures 4-1 in their last away fixture but prior to that they had picked up just one point from six on the road. It is difficult to justify why the visitors are favourites in this game when Brasov have lost only 1/9 games hosting top-half non-Big Two teams since the start of last season but instead of taking the home team outright we prefer the Draw No Bet option at Evens.

Recommendation: FC Brasov Win DNB 2.00, William Hill/Bwin


La Liga: Hercules v Villarreal (Mon, 20:00)

Hercules have lost two of their three home games this season and middle-third promoted teams have lost 11/24 home matches against top-six teams since 2005/06. Further, promoted teams have lost 9/16 matches hosting teams that have won their previous two away games in this time. Villarreal are on a five-game winning streak and have won half their 18 away games against bottom-half teams since 2008/09, as well as taking seven points from their previous three away games when on a similar streak.

Recommendation: Villarreal Win 2.70, Betfair


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