Football / Preview / Topline 10 04 2010

Topline (10/04/2010)

After three profitable editions, Topline returns with 11 recommendations spread across seven European leagues this weekend.

Athletic Bilbao's Joseba Etxeberria

 

 

Bundesliga: Borussia M’gladbach v E Frankfurt (Fri, 19:30) - Result: 2-0

Over/Under: M’gladbach have had +2.5 goals in seven of their 10 home games against middle-third teams since the start of last season, as have Frankfurt in seven of their last 10 away games and in four of their last six trips to middle-third teams. Also, B. M'gladbach have scored first in seven of their last nine home matches against top half non-Big Three teams. Teams placed 9th-15th hosting teams placed 5th-11th have had +2.5 goals in 53% of matches in home games 1-13 compared to 59% in games 14-17, with +3.5 goals increasing from 30% to 36%.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.30, Betfair

 

Bundesliga: Werder Bremen v Freiburg (Sat, 14:30) - Result: 4-0

Over/Under: There have been +2.5 goals in seven of the last 10 W. Bremen home matches against bottom-six teams, while there have been +3.5 goals in 10 of their last 20 home matches. Also, SC Freiburg have scored first in nine of their last 15 away matches.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.40, Bwin/Sportingbet

 

Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin v VfB Stuttgart (Sat, 14:30) - Result: 0-1

Match outcome: Hertha Berlin have won none of their last 13 home matches, losing seven times, while VfB Stuttgart have won eight of their last 11 away matches against bottom-six teams and have won 10 of their last 13 matches overall. Furthermore, top-half teams have won 46% of their 68 away matches against bottom-six teams in the final four away matches of the season since 2004/05.

Recommendation: Stuttgart Win 2.58, Betfair

 

Serie B: Grosseto v Vicenza (Sat, 14:30) - Result: 4-0

Over/Under: There have been +3.5 goals in 10 of Grosseto’s 17 home matches against bottom-half teams since the start of last season as they’ve kept just one clean sheet, as well as +3.5 goals in half their last 16 home matches against all teams, while there have been +2.5 goals in 17 of their last 21 home matches. Vicenza have had +2.5 goals in half their last six away matches with two having at least four goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.14, Betfair (NB our preference would be for +3.5 goals but there was no price at time of writing)

 

Championship: Middlesbrough v Sheff Wed (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Middlesbrough have had W/W double results in four of their last five home matches against bottom-six teams while Sheffield Wed have lost six of their last 10 away matches against top-half teams. Also, Sheffield Wed have conceded first in seven of their last 10 away matches against top-half teams.

Recommendation: Middlesbrough W/W 2.86, Betfair

 

Eredivisie: Twente v Heerenveen (Sat, 17:45) - Result: 2-0

Over/Under: Since the start of last season five of Twente’s seven games hosting middle-third sides have featured at least three goals when they have conceded while three have seen four or more scores. Over the same period 56% (18/32) of Heerenveen’s away fixtures have settled the +3.5 goals which has included seven of their nine games at top-six sides.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.50, Betfair

 

Super Lig: Kasimpasa v Ankaragucu (Sun, 13:00) - Result: 2-0

Over/Under: There have been +2.5 goals in six of the last seven Kasimpasa home matches against middle-third teams. Ankaragucu have been level at half-time in seven of their last 10 away matches against bottom-six teams. Further, there have been +3.5 goals in nine of the last 12 Kasimpasa home matches.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.80, Sportingbet

 

Bundesliga: VfL Bochum v Hamburg (Sun, 14:30) - Result: 1-2

Over/Under: There have been +2.5 goals in seven of the last 10 VfL Bochum home matches against top-six teams as there have been in eight of the last 10 Hamburg SV away matches against bottom-six teams. Further, there have been +3.5 goals in 10 of the last 20 Hamburg SV away matches. VfL Bochum have lost eight of their last 13 home matches against top-six teams.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.45, Betfair

 

La Liga: Athletic Bilbao v Almeria (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 4-1 (HT 2-0)

HT/FT: Athletic Bilbao have won six of seven undefeated home matches, recording five W/Ws in the process. Additionally, they have son five of eight home fixtures against middle-third sides with four W/Ws. Almeria have been beaten in all of their 11 games at top-six teams since the start of last season with nine L/L doubles.

Recommendation: Athletic Bilbao W/W 3.20, Betfair

 

Segunda: Cordoba v Numancia (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 2-1

DNB: Cordoba have kept three consecutive clean sheets and have won three of their last four home games. Moreover, they’ve won 12 and lost only four of 21 home matches against top-half teams since the start of last season and beat leaders Real Sociedad in their last home match. Numancia have lost six of their last 11 away games and have picked up just one point in their five away matches this season when they had won their previous away match.

Recommendation: Cordoba DNB 2.05, Betdaq

 

La Liga: Mallorca v Valencia (Sun, 20:00) - Result: 3-2

Asian handicap: Mallorca have won 12 of their 14 home fixtures this season and 10 of the victories have been by two clear goals. Further, they have been successful in four of their last eight games hosting top-six sides. Valencia have been beaten by three goals in all of their last three on the road and they have lost all of their last six trips to top-six teams.

Recommendation: Mallorca Win -1 3.60, Bet365










 

 
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