Football / Preview / Champions League Quarter Finals Second Legs

Champions League: Quarter-finals

Analysis of all four Champions League quarter-final second leg's including the all-French Bordeaux v Lyon clash.

Bordeaux's Marouane Chamakh

 

 

CSKA Moscow (Bettorlogic rank 22) v Inter Milan (6) (Tues, 17:30)

HT outcome: CSKA Moscow were the only team not to score in the first leg of the quarter-finals. The hosts have gained only one point in their four home fixtures against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 6-15 while Russian teams have won just one of eight home matches against Italian opposition (four HT draws). Inter Milan have won five of their 12 away games at teams ranked 16-30 and half (6/12) of these matches have been goalless at the interval. Moreover, Inter have netted in just three of these fixtures. Teams that have lost 1-0 away in the first leg have qualified in just five of 15 ties this century with nine half-time draws.

Recommendation: HT draw 2.10, Various

 

Barcelona (1) v Arsenal (5) (Tues, 19:45)

Over/Under: Home teams that gained a score draw in the first leg have qualified in 21/30 matches in Champions League history. This increases to 15 in 17 when the higher-ranked side is at home (FT W13-D4-L1, HT W11-D5-L2). Barcelona have won just three of their nine home matches against teams ranked 1-5, but have lost only once. Six of the games have been drawn at half-time, five have been goalless at the interval and five have settled the -2.5 goals market.

Since 2004/05, 62% (38/62) of all top-five clashes have seen fewer than three scores while 24 (39%) have been drawn and 32 (52%) have been tied at the break. Over the same period, Arsenal have won only nine of their 29 away Champions League fixtures and 19 (66%) of the games have settled the -2.5 goals market (3/4 -2.5 goals at Spanish clubs).

Recommendation: -2.5 goals 2.84, Betfair

 

Bordeaux (8) v Lyon (9) (Weds, 19:45)

Over/Under: Home teams with a two-goal deficit have qualified in only two of 20 ties since the inception of the Champions League. 12 of the 20 matches have been tied at the break, however 12 have also settled the +2.5 goals market. Bordeaux have featured in just one home knockout match (their 2-1 victory over Olympiakos in the Last 16), but they have been strong at home generally in this competition. Since the start of last season, they have won five of seven such games with just one loss and five half-time draws.

Lyon are winless in five away knockout fixtures with three defeats, but they have a strong record travelling to teams ranked 6-15 — W5-D6-L2 — since 2000/01, netting in all-bar-two of the games. 16 of the last 22 (73%) quarter-final second legs when the away team has scored have seen at least three goals while 12 (55%) have featured four or more and eight (37%) five or more.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.75, William Hill

 

Man Utd (2) v Bayern Munich (7) (Weds, 19:45)

HT/FT: Man Utd have qualified in just one of their four knockout matches having lost the first leg on the road. Since 2004/05, United have won nine of 13 fixtures hosting teams ranked 6-15; just three of victories were by two clear goals, but six were to nil. More recently, they have recorded W/Ws in four of their last six such games.

German teams who have won by one goal in the first leg have lost all of their three away second legs this century. Bayern Munich have been beaten in eight of their 10 away knockout matches since 2001/02 and six of the defeats were to nil or by two or more goals (six L/Ls). Furthermore, Munich have lost all of their last five games at top-five ranked sides with four L/Ls.

Recommendation: Man Utd W/W 3.00, Betfair

 

 

 
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