Football / Preview / Topline 03 04 2010

Topline (03/04/2010)

Easter weekend's Topline is made up of 14 recommendations spread across Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Birmingham's Scott Dann

 

Serie B: Empoli v Lecce (Fri, 18:00) - Result: 2-2

Over/Under: Empoli are undefeated in 20 home matches with 15 victories, however here they face top-of-the-table Lecce. Since the start of last season, 48% (10/21) of Empoli’s home games when they have conceded have featured at least four goals, which has included two of their four such fixtures against top-six sides. Eight of Lecce’s 16 away matches this term have settled the +3.5 goals market.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.80, Sportingbet

 

Super Liga: Nacional v Leixoes (Fri, 19:00) - Result: 1-0 (HT 0-0)

HT/FT: Nacional have picked up 22 of a possible 24 points in their last eight home matches against bottom-six opposition and they have been in-front at the break in five of their victories. Leixoes, meanwhile, have been beaten in five of their last six on the road with three L/Ls. The visitors have also seen L/Ls in six of their last nine games at middle-third sides (W0-D1-L8).

Recommendation: Nacional W/W 2.96, Betfair

 

Super Lig: Istanbul BB v Denizlispor (Sat, 12:00) - Result: 3-1 (HT 0-1)

HT/FT: Istanbul BB have beaten the top two in the league in their past two home matches and have won five of their last eight home matches against bottom-six teams. They’ve also scored before half-time in six of their last seven home matches. Denizlispor have lost 24 of 30 away matches since the start of last season, including eight of their last nine trips to top-half non-Big Three teams with seven L/Ls.

Recommendation: Istanbul W/W 3.10, Betfair

 

Serie A: Parma v Fiorentina (Sat, 14:00) - Result: 1-1

Asian handicap: Parma have won their last three home matches 1-0 and they have gained 10 points from their last four games hosting top-half non-Big Four teams. Fiorentina have been successful in just two of their last nine away fixtures with five defeats. The visitors have also suffered defeat in five of their last 11 trips to middle-third sides.

Recommendation: Parma Win -0.25 2.48, Bet365

 

Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M’gladbach (Sat, 14:30) - Result: 2-1 (HT 0-1)

HT/FT: VfB Stuttgart have won seven of their last eight home matches against middle-third teams with four W/Ws, while B. M'gladbach have had L/L double results in 10 of their last 14 away matches against top half teams. Also, here have been +2.5 goals in nine of the last 10 B. M'gladbach away matches against top half non-Big Three teams.

Recommendation: VfB Stuttgart W/W 2.24, Betfair

 

Championship: Peterborough v Newcastle (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 2-3

Over/Under: Peterborough have had +2.5 goals in six of their last eight home games against top-half teams (12/17 at home when they have conceded) as have Newcastle in eight of their 10 trips to bottom-half teams this season. Also, Newcastle have lost just four of their last 19 away matches.

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.80, Bet365

 

Super Lig: Bursaspor v Antalyaspor (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 2-1 (HT 1-1)

HT/FT: Bursaspor have won seven of their last 10 home matches against middle-third teams with six W/Ws while Antalyaspor have lost 8/9 away matches vs. top-six teams with six L/Ls. Further, Bursaspor have scored first in nine of their last 10 home matches against middle-third teams.

Recommendation: Bursaspor W/W 2.36, Betfair

 

Segunda: Celta Vigo v Real Union (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 0-1 (HT 0-0)

HT score: Celta Vigo have been goalless at half-time in 14 of their last 20 home matches as have Real Union in five of their last eight away matches against middle-third teams. Also, there have been -2.5 goals in 14 of the last 20 Celta Vigo home matches.

Recommendation: HT 0-0 (-0.5 first half goals) 2.60, Sporting Bet

 

Eredivisie: Heerenveen v Sparta R’dam (Sat, 19:45) - Result: 4-1

Over/Under: 13 of Heerenveen’s 31 (42%) home matches since the start of last season have contained more than three scores as have five of their last nine games hosting bottom-six sides. Similarly, five of Sparta Rotterdam’s last five on the road have settled the +3.5 goals market as have two of their last three games at middle-third clubs.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.65, Sportingbet

 

Ligue 1: Montpellier v Monaco (Sat, 20:00) - Result: 0-0

Win to nil: Montpellier have won 11 of their last 14 home matches with seven wins-to-nil, and have won six of their seven home games against middle-third teams this season with three wins-to-nil. Monaco haven’t scored in four away games and have lost 10 of their last 17 away matches with nine defeats without scoring. Furthermore, they’ve failed to score in seven of their 10 trips to top-six teams since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Montpellier Win to nil 3.00, Bwin

 

Premier League: Birmingham v Liverpool (Sun, 15:00)

HT score: Birmingham are unbeaten in 12 games at home and have been goalless at half-time in half their 16 home matches this season including in five of seven home games against teams now in the top eight. Liverpool have drawn the first half in 11 of their last 15 away games and have scored just once before half-time in their last nine away matches (six half-time 0-0s). Moreover, they’ve been level at half-time in 12 of their last 20 trips to middle-third teams since 2007/08, including nine 0-0s.

Recommendation: HT 0-0 2.95, Bwin

 

Premier League: Everton v West Ham (Sun, 16:00)

Asian handicap: Everton have won seven home matches in-a-row with six wins by two-clear goals. Moreover, they’ve won 19 and lost only one of 24 home games against bottom-half teams since 2007/08 with 15 wins by two or more goals. West Ham are in terrible form and have taken just two points from their last nine trips to top-half teams with six defeats by two or more goals.

Recommendation: Everton Win -1.5 2.30, Paddy Power

 

Bundesliga: Hamburg v Hannover (Sun, 16:30)

HT/FT: Hamburg SV have had W/W double results in seven of their last 10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hannover have lost 11 of 14 away matches against top-half teams with nine L/Ls since 2008/09. Further, Hannover 96 have lost by two or more goals in six of their last 10 away matches against top-six teams.

Recommendation: Hamburg W/W 2.30, Betfair

 

Ligue 1: Auxerre v Paris St-G (Sun, 20:00)

Match outcome: Auxerre have won eight of their last 12 matches overall, as well as 10 of their last 13 at home, and four of their last six hosting middle-third teams. PSG have lost five of their last seven away games without winning, and have lost nine of their last 12 trips to top-six teams.

Recommendation: Auxerre Win 2.25, Stan James

 
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