Football / Preview / Topline 01 05 2010

Topline (01/05/2010)

As the Eredivisie and the Championship draw to a close, we have selected our 11 best recommendations for this weekend's Topline.

West Brom's Graeme Dorrans



Serie B: Ancona v Grosseto (Fri 19:45) - Result: 1-1

Over/Under: 62% (24/39) of Ancona’s home matches since the start of last season have season have featured at least three goals, while this increases to 82% (23/28) when they concede. Grosseto have netted in nine of their last 10 away fixtures and six of the games have settled the +2.5 goals market.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.18, Betfair


Premier League: Portsmouth v Wolves (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 3-1

Over/Under: 59% (22/37) of Portsmouth’s home matches since the start of last season have settled the +2.5 goals market as have five of their last six such games. Similarly, 10 of Wolves’ 15 away fixtures this term have seen more than a brace of scores when they have netted.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.20, Betfair


League One: Bristol Rovers v Norwich (Sat, 15:00) - Result: 0-3

Over/Under: There have been +2.5 goals in seven of the last 10 Bristol Rovers home matches against top-six teams and in seven of the last 10 Norwich away matches against top-half teams. Also, Bristol Rovers have won 12 of their last 20 home matches. 24 of the hosts last 28 games home games when they have conceded have seen three or more goals while 15 (54%) have featured at least four.

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.47, Bet365


Super Lig: Bursaspor v Kayserispor (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 2-0 (HT 2-0)

HT/FT: Bursaspor have scored first in nine of their last 10 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams while Kayserispor have trailed at half-time in eight of their last 10 away matches against top-six teams and gone on to suffer six L/L double results. Also, Bursaspor have won 14 of their last 20 home matches.

Recommendation: Bursaspor W/W 2.34, Betfair


Super Lig: Super Lig: Istanbul v Galatasaray (Sat, 18:00) - Result: 0-1

Match outcome: Istanbul have lost just two of their last 11 home matches in a spell which has included seven victories including impressive sins over Fenerbahce and Bursaspor. Galatasaray have won only one of their last six away fixtures and none of their 10 trips to top-six sides since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Lay Galatasaray Win 1.79, Betfair


Championship: Reading v Preston (Sun, 13:00) - Result: 4-1

Asian handicap: Reading have won eight of their last nine home matches against bottom-half teams and have led at half-time in seven of their last 10 home matches against bottom-half teams, while Preston have lost seven of their last eight away matches against middle-third teams as well as losing by two or more goals in six of their last 10 away matches against middle-third teams.

Recommendation: Reading Win -1 2.09, Bet365


Championship: West Brom v Barnsley (Sun, 13:00) - Result: 1-1

Asian handicap: West Brom have won their last nine home games with five wins by two or more goals and six W/Ws. They have also won all nine home matches they’ve played against teams currently in the bottom 10 this season with six W/Ws and five wins by two-clear goals. Barnsley have lost eight of their last 12 away matches with six L/Ls.

Recommendation: West Brom Win -1.5 2.25, Blue Square


Championship: Scunthorpe v Nottm Forest (Sun, 13:00) - Result: 2-2

Asian handicap: Scunthorpe have won three of their last five home matches, scoring 13 goals in the process. Nottm Forest have gained just one point from their last nine away fixtures, failing to score on five occasions.

Recommendation: Scunthorpe Win -0.25 2.27, Bet365


Ligue 1: Rennes v Sochaux (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 1-2 (HT 0-1)

HT/FT: Rennes have won 10 of their last 12 home matches against bottom-six teams while Sochaux have lost 13 of their last 18 away matches against top-half teams. Also, there have been -2.5 goals in 15 of the last 20 Sochaux away matches. Sochaux have been beaten in 14 of their 17 away games in which they have conceded before the break since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Rennes W/W 2.68, Betfair


Ligue 1: Bordeaux v Toulouse (Sun, 16:00) - Result: 1-0

Both teams to score: Both teams have scored in eight of Bordeaux’s last nine home games including their last three hosting middle-third teams, as has been the case in seven of Toulouse’s last nine away matches and in each of their last six trips to top-half teams. Also, Bordeaux have score first in 10 of their 12 home matches against middle-third teams since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Both teams to score 2.25, Skybet


Serie B: Empoli v Brescia (Mon, 19:45) - Result: 1-2

Match outcome: Empoli have won by two clear goals in 13 of their last 20 home fixtures (with 13 half-time leads) while Brescia have won just three of their last 15 trips to top-half sides. Further, the hosts are unbeaten in six home games against top-six teams with four victories.

Recommendation: Empoli Win 2.38, Skybet/Victor Chandler


This week's Topline resulted in a 26% loss on turnover to a unit stake.


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