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Champions League: Semi-Finals Second Legs

Analysis and recommendations on both Champions League semi-finals taking place this week.

Barcelona's Lionel Messi


Lyon (Bettorlogic rank 8) v Bayern Munich (7) (Tues, 19:45)

Teams that have lost the first leg of a semi-final 1-0 have gone through just once in four attempts since the inception of the Champions League – when Liverpool overcame an opening leg defeat at Stamford Bridge - and three of the four games saw -1.5 goals. In fact, 14 of the 30 second legs, following a -1.5 goals first leg, have seen at most a single score (24 -2.5 goals).

Lyon have lost just one of their 11 home knockout matches since 2003/04, but they have drawn on five occasions. Seven of the games have featured fewer than three goals as have eight of the last 15 games in which a French side has hosted a German team.

Bayern Munich have been goalless at half-time in both of their last two away second legs following a first leg victory. More generally, Munich have been beaten in nine of their last 11 away knockout stage fixtures with seven L/L doubles. The visitors have also lost six of their last 10 games at teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 6-16.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: 0.75 pt: Lyon Win 2.50, Skybet
                                                            0.25 pt: Lyon Win 1-0 9.00, Betfair


Barcelona (1) v Inter Milan (4) (Weds, 19:45)

Barcelona have gone out in three of their last five ties when they have been beaten in the first leg. Moreover, only two home sides, in 20 attempts, have managed to overcome a two goal first-leg deficit in Champions League history – Barcelona against Chelsea in 1999/00 and Monaco against Real Madrid in 2003/04.

Barca are undefeated in eight home knockout matches since 2007/08 with six victories, six W/Ws and six clean sheets although they have defeated the -1.5 goal handicap just four times. Over the same period they have faced top-five ranked opposition on four occasions and won just twice, with goalless draws against Chelsea and Manchester United.

Inter Milan have been beaten by two clear goals in two of their seven away knockout matches since 2005/06, while six of the games saw no more than two scores and four at most one. The visitors have won three of their last six trips to top-five ranked sides, but have been beaten 2-0 in the other three (all L/Ls).

Recommendation: Barcelona W/W 2.20, Bwin


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