Arsenal

Robin van Persie helped Arsenal score 2.93 goals per game in the 14 appearances he made last season compared to 1.75 in the rest of their matches as they averaged 2.07 points per game with the Dutchman. Had they maintained this throughout the season they would have finished on 79 points, although this would have still been six points behind second-placed Man Utd.

Furthermore RVP has played 12 of Arsenal’s 21 games against top-six teams in the past two seasons with just three defeats and a PPG of 1.42 compared to five defeats in nine games without him and a PPG of just 1.11, despite the fact that six of the matches he missed were at home whilst more of the games he played were on the road.

Arsenal have also signed Maroune Chamakh from Bordeaux to replace Eduardo who has left after just 12 appearances in the past two seasons. During the same period Chamakh has played 51 of Bordeaux’s 76 games and they’ve averaged 23% more PPG with him – a similar increase on the Gunner’s performances last season would give them 92 points and almost certainly the title.

Aston Villa

Villa have yet to appear in the transfer market although Luke Young is reportedly close to a move to Liverpool while James Milner has been linked with Man City all summer. Whilst Milner would surely be a major loss given he’s missed just six games in the past two seasons, Young would be less so after playing just 14 games last season with the team doing equally as well when he was missing.

Birmingham City

Birmingham have signed Nikola Zigic from Valencia where the Serbian striker had endured a frustrating stay as he rarely featured. However, he did score 13 goals in 19 appearances for Racing Santander during a loan spell in the second half of 2008/09. The Blues have also signed Ben Foster from Man Utd to replace Joe Hart.

Blackburn Rovers

Sam Allardyce has been unusually quiet as there have been no moves in the transfer market up at Ewood Park.

Blackpool

The Seasiders have lost striker Ben Burgess to Notts County and have failed to make any new signings. However, while Burgess has played just over half their games in the past two seasons they’ve fared equally well without as with him.

Bolton

They’ve avoided losing any players over the summer whilst making some useful signings with the acquisitions of Robbie Blake from Burnley, Martin Petrov from Man City, and the permanent signing of Ivan Klasnic.

Blake was Burnley’s most significant performer last season as they managed 20 points in the 16 appearances he made compared to just10 in their other 22 games.
Petrov had played only 11 times for City in the past two seasons, although when he had they’d averaged 1.82 PPG compared to just 1.49 otherwise, although this is partly due to playing more matches at home where their PPG was only 13% higher with the Bulgarian – although that would have equated to an extra five points last season.

Chelsea

Michael Essien has missed a lot of football for the Blues in the past two seasons and Chelsea’s stats with or without him are very similar. However, a look at how they’ve performed against the top-six teams shows his importance to the team as they’ve won 10 of 12 such matches with the Ghana captain since 2007/08 compared to winning seven and losing seven of 15 without him, although eight of the 12 he played were at home. The Blues should also benefit from the return of Jose Bosingwa at some point although he looks unlikely to be ready for the start of the season.

Carlo Ancelotti looks to have added Brazilian international Ramires to his squad having only made one other signing in Yossi Benayoun over the summer whilst seeing Joe Cole and Michael Ballack leave. Cole has played only 23 of Chelsea’s games in the past two seasons with the team faring slightly less well with him, while Ballack has appeared in 46 of the Blues’ games with a PPG of 2.30 compared to just 2.10 without him. Moreover, last season Ballack missed only 12 games and in those Chelsea’s PPG was just 1.67 which was the same as Liverpool averaged over the season.

Everton

Phil Jagielka missed the first 27 games of last season for Everton having suffered a serious knee injury in the latter part of the previous season. In the past two terms he’s played 44 of the Toffees 76 matches with a PPG of 1.70 compared to just 1.53 without him and should they have averaged 1.70 PPG during those opening 27 games they would have picked up another eight points which would have left them just one point behind Spurs in fifth. Furthermore he missed both matches against Spurs last season and they took just one point from those games.

Everton also had other long term absentees last season including Mikel Arteta who also missed 27 games. In the past two seasons the Spaniard has averaged 1.83 PPG compared to 1.45 and that would have equated to an extra 14 points over 27 games which would have put Everton level with Arsenal in third on 75 points.

Added to their improved fitness situation at the start of this campaign Everton have signed Jermaine Beckford after the striker helped Leeds average 2.04 PPG in 67 appearances in the past two seasons compared to just 1.32 without him, although their increase was a more modest 13% last season when he played. However, a 13% increase for the Toffees on last season’s total would give them another eight points.

Liverpool

Alberto Aquilani arrived at Anfield with expectations of greatness but never really delivered as he played just nine games. However, in those games they picked up 20 points at a rate that would have got them to 84 points and just two off the title. However, six of those nine games were at home and six were against bottom-half teams, with the Reds actually earning more points per game at home when he didn’t play.

Liverpool’s major signing this summer has been Joe Cole although he’s been fairly insignificant for Chelsea in the past few years. However, they’ve lost Yossi Benayoun and Albert Riera. Riera played 31 times in the past two seasons and Benayoun 40 with both men seeing about a 15% drop in PPG when they didn’t play and should that continue it would equate to a loss of three points over the course of the season given they played only about half the Reds’ games.