Football / Preview / Premier League Relegation Preview

Premier League Relegation Preview

Ahead of the new season Bettorlogic take a comprehensive look at the relegation candidates in what is sure to be another hard fought contest.

Blackpool's Charlie Adam

 

Promoted teams

  • Since 1996/97 (the first season with both 20 teams and three promoted sides) 20 of 42 promoted teams have been relegated straight back to The Championship.
  • Just 1/14 seasons have seen all three promoted teams relegated while also 1/14 have seen none of the promoted teams demoted.
  • Six teams have won The Championship with 98 or more points and while Bolton in 1997/98 were relegated the five since then have all finished 13th or higher, with three top-half finishes.
  • 10 teams have been promoted having gained at least 18 points less than the champions with seven being relegated and the other finishing 9th, 13th and 17th.
  • None of the five teams to be promoted straight back to the Premier League following a relegation have gone straight back down.

Newcastle United ran away with The Championship last season as they racked up over 100 points courtesy of an unbeaten home record. Behind them was West Bromwich Albion who picked up 91 points to be clear in second and make an immediate return to the Premier League while the third promoted team was a surprise with Blackpool sneaking through the playoffs having earned just 70 points during the regular season.

With Newcastle becoming the seventh team to rack up at least 98 points in claiming The Championship title since 1995/96 they look well placed to cement their position in the top flight and may well attain a mid-table position.

West Brom’s form was also impressive last season as Roberto di Matteo took over from Tony Mowbray and the Baggies finished 12 points clear of third. They are the sixth team to make an immediate return to the Premier League since 1996/97 with all the previous five surviving their first season back and three finishing ninth (including Birmingham last season). However, they’ve been handed some tough opening fixtures as they play each of the Big Four plus Spurs in their opening eight matches (although their other three are at home against Sunderland, Birmingham and Bolton).

Blackpool’s plight is less positive as they’ve also been handed some tough opening fixtures and having been promoted with the lowest points total (32 back from Newcastle) since the second tier settled on 24 teams in 1988/89 their stay looks pretty certain to be a short one and they should make it three out of four teams promoted having finished 6th to be relegated. However, there is little value to be had in backing them at 1.29 to go down.


Second Season Teams

  • 3/5 teams that finished 15th-17th in their first season were relegated, with all five finishing lower in their second term.
  • 3/16 teams that finished higher than 15th were relegated.
  • 1/15 teams in their third season were relegated.

Wolves survived by a relatively comfortable eight points in 15th last season as Portsmouth, Hull City and Burnley all had shocking seasons. However, without those teams to occupy the basement slots Wolves may find themselves in trouble – particularly if they follow the trend of other teams that finished in the bottom six in their first season but survived and slip further down the table this term.

Birmingham had the longest unbeaten run in the league last season as they finished ninth and with added investment should be able to maintain their safety again with 3/10 teams to finish in the top-half in their first season repeating the feat in the next.


Other teams

  • There have been 14 relegated teams other than promoted or second-season sides since 1999/2000, with 13 finishing 12th or lower the previous season (13/57).
  • In this time 41 teams have finished 12 or lower in the previous season and were placed higher the season before that, with nine teams being relegated.
  • 7/14 relegated sides had finished in the bottom six in one of the previous two seasons.

Last season saw West Ham finish 17th behind Wigan, Wolves, Bolton, Sunderland, and Fulham in 12th.

Teams finishing 12th or 13th tend to be vulnerable with 8/28 teams in the past 14 seasons being relegated and the loss of Roy Hodgson may throw Fulham into difficulty, although they would probably have finished higher last year were it not for their run in the Europa Cup. Sunderland also have the fact they improved their position last season from the previous year in their favour.

Fulham and West Ham can both point to top-half finishes two seasons ago and since 1999/2000 there have been just six teams relegated out of 106 that have finished in the top-half and then 12th or lower. In contrast bottom-half finishers two seasons ago that then finished 12th or lower saw seven relegated out of 63. As such Bolton and Wigan look in the most danger given their league positions also worsened last season with Bolton having been far the more effective in the transfer market to date this summer.


Recommendations: Wolves to be relegated at 3.25, Various
                                      Wigan to be relegated at 3.25, Ladbrokes

 

 
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