Football / Preview / Euro 2012 Qualifiers Groups E I

Euro 2012 Qualifiers Groups E-I

Bettorlogic preview eight of this weekend's European international qualifiers from Groups E-I including Portugal's crucial clash with Denmark.

Norway's Steffen Iversen

 

Group E

Moldova (Bettorlogic Rank 112) v Netherlands (2)

Moldova haven’t conceded more than twice at home in a qualifier in 21 matches since 2002 WC qualifiers. However, they’ve not faced a side ranked as high as the Netherlands in that time. Since 2002, they’ve taken just one point from their five home matches against top-25 ranked sides as they’ve lost the second half on four occasions, although 4/5 have had -2.5 goals.

The Netherlands have won 12/16 away qualifiers since 2006 with 10 wins to-nil, although just four were by two-clear goals. Furthermore, they’ve won eight of their last 10 trips to teams ranked 51+ including six wins to-nil of which five were 1-0. Top-five ranked sides have won 37/47 trips to teams ranked 81-150 since 1992 with 21 wins to-nil, and 23 wins by two-clear goals of which just 10 were by three or more.

Recommendation: No bet


Group F

Greece (38) v Latvia (72)

Greece have won 13/19 home qualifiers since 2006 while suffering just three defeats. However, they were woeful at the World Cup this summer and a draw against Georgia in their opening home game of this campaign hardly gives much encouragement. Furthermore, these results were largely garnered against weak opposition as they won just one match against a team ranked in the top 35.

Latvia lost 5-2 in Greece during WC qualifying but have won four of their last six away qualifiers and have scored in each of their last nine such matches. However, they’ve lost 4/5 trips to teams ranked 31-60 since 2006 as they’ve been a fairly inconsistent team.

Recommendation: No bet


Israel (43) v Croatia (15)

Israel have lost just 1/10 home qualifiers and just 1/8 such games since 2006 against teams ranked higher than themselves. Furthermore, they’ve drawn six of these eight games as both teams have scored in seven.

Croatia have a good away record in qualifiers as they’ve won 16/26 since 2002, although they’ve won just 2/7 trips to teams ranked 26-50 while drawing three times. Furthermore, they’ve drawn 7/13 qualifiers home or away against teams of this rank.

Since 1992, 50/142 qualifiers where a team ranked 26-50 has hosted a side ranked 11-25 have finished all-square – equating to odds of 2.84.

Recommendation: Drawn match at 3.25, Bet365


Group G

Montenegro (66) v Switzerland (16)

Montenegro have lost just 1/6 home qualifiers since 2010 WC qualifying, and that was to then third-ranked Italy. They’ve also kept three consecutive clean sheets in qualifiers and six of their last nine such matches have had -2.5 goals as have 4/6 home qualifiers.

Switzerland have lost just 1/11 away qualifiers since 2006 and haven’t lost back-to-back qualifiers since 2002. Since 2002 Switzerland have drawn 6/8 away qualifiers against teams ranked 26-100, although just two of those matches had -2.5 goals.

Recommendation: No bet
 

Wales (80) v Bulgaria (44)

Wales have lost their last three home qualifiers and have had -2.5 goals in 6/8 such matches as goals have been scarce. Since 2004 Wales have failed to win any of their seven home qualifiers against teams ranked 26-75 as they’ve suffered five defeats.

Bulgaria have lost 4/5 qualifiers and have won just 1/9 on the road. However, they’ve lost only 1/15 trips to teams ranked 51+ since 2002 with seven wins, and 11 of these matches have had -2.5 goals.

Recommendation: No bet


Group H

Portugal (7) v Denmark (32)

Portugal have started their qualifying campaign with a 4-4 draw at home against Cyprus and then a 1-0 defeat in Norway. Their indifferent form in the past couple of years has seen them win just 4/11 home qualifiers (W4-D6-L1) including just one win in five home games against teams ranked 11-50 since the 2008 Euro qualifiers.

Denmark won in Portugal in qualifying for the last World Cup and have lost just 2/13 away qualifiers while winning seven times. Furthermore they’ve lost just 1/5 trips to top-20 ranked sides.

Recommendation: Lay Portugal to win at 1.61, Betfair


Cyprus (67) v Norway (39)

Cyprus thrashed Bulgaria in their last home qualifying game but have kept just two clean sheets in 25 home qualifiers since 2002, and those were against Andorra and San Marino. 20 of these 25 games have had +2.5 goals with 13 having +3.5 goals, as they’ve scored in 10 of their last 11 home qualifying games with both teams netting in nine. Furthermore, back to their 2006 WC qualifying campaign Cyprus have lost 4/6 home games against teams ranked 26-50 with both teams scoring in five and four matches having +3.5 goals.

Norway have lost just four of their 16 away qualifiers since 2006, including going undefeated in 10 trips to teams ranked 51+ with seven wins, although just four have had +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: Norway win at 2.4, William Hill


Group I

Czech Republic (30) v Scotland (47)

The Czech Republic lost their opening home qualifier of this campaign, having won 14 of their previous 18 home qualifiers, with six of their last nine such matches having had -2.5 goals. The Czech’s slight loss of form has seen them win just one of their four home qualifiers against teams ranked 31-75 since the 2010 WC qualifying, with four of those five matches having been level at half-time and 4/5 ending with -2.5 goals.

Scotland have failed to score in 5/6 away qualifiers and have had -2.5 goals in seven of their last 10 such matches. Furthermore, they’ve had -2.5 goals in 3/5 trips to teams ranked 11-50 since 2002.

Recommendation: No bet

 
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