Group A

Kazakhstan (128) v Belgium (73)

Kazakhstan have lost their past five home qualifiers during which they’ve conceded 17 goals and their weak defence has led to 10 of their last 11 home qualifiers featuring at least three goals. Furthermore, they’ve played eight home qualifiers against teams ranked 41-110 since 2006 with six defeats, although just two by more than a single goal, and with six of the matches featuring +2.5 goals as both teams have netted on six occasions.

Belgium have lost their last five away qualifiers but four of those matches have had +2.5 goals. Since 2006, Belgium have won three of seven trips to teams ranked 76+ but none of those wins were by more than a single goal. However, they did score in six of those matches with four seeing both teams find the net.

Recommendation: Both teams to score at 2.2, Totesport

Austria (53) v Azerbaijan (121)

Austria have won seven of their last eight home qualifiers and since 2002 they’ve won 6/9 such matches against teams ranked 101+, including five wins to-nil of which four have been 2-0 and the other has been 1-0. In fact eight of these matches have had -2.5 goals.

Azerbaijan lost their opening away game of this campaign with a 6-1 defeat in Germany, and they’ve lost 15 of 17 away qualifiers since 2006 including 13 defeats to-nil and six D/Ls. Furthermore, they’ve lost all eight away matches in this time against teams ranked 26-75, with seven defeats to-nil and four D/Ls as they’ve lost the second half on seven occasions.

Recommendation: Austria to win to-nil at 1.83, Paddy Power

Germany (3) v Turkey (28)

Germany are unbeaten in 14 qualifiers and have won 12 of 16 home matches since 2002 with seven W/Ws in the last 11. Furthermore, they’ve won all three of their home games against teams placed 21-50.

Turkey have won three consecutive qualifiers but those were all against teams ranked 76 or below and they have scored just two goals in seven games against top-10 ranked sides home or away since 2004 as six of the matches have had -2.5 goals, including all four away.

Recommendation: No bet
 

Group B

Armenia (Bettorlogic Rank 119) v Slovakia (35)

Armenia have lost 10 of 18 home qualifiers since 2006 with just three wins and they’ve failed to score in 10 of those matches. Unsurprisingly given the paucity of the Armenian attack 12 of these matches have finished with -2.5 goals, including all seven where they’ve hosted teams ranked 21-50, in which they’ve found the net just twice as four matches have ended with -1.5 goals.

Slovakia have won their last five away qualifiers, with clean sheets in their last three. Furthermore, back to the 2002 WC qualifiers they’ve won eight of 10 trips to teams ranked 51-150 with half those matches being won to-nil, half won by two or more goals and half having -2.5 goals.

Recommendation: Slovakia to win to-nil at 2.5, Paddy Power

Andorra (185) v FYR Macedonia (78)

Andorra have lost 12 straight home qualifiers during which they’ve scored just twice and all but one of those losses was by two-clear goals, with 11 also being L/L doubles. Furthermore, they’ve lost their last five home qualifiers against teams ranked 75+ with all five being L/Ls and by two-clear goals, with four also featuring at least three goals.

Macedonia have lost their last eight away qualifiers since beating Andorra 3-0 in Euro 2008 qualifying, but have won three of their last four trips to teams ranked 76+ with two W/Ws.

Recommendation: No bet

Ireland (26) v Russia (19)

Ireland have lost just 1/14 home qualifying games as they’ve built a strategy around a solid defence that hasn’t seen them concede more than once at home in 15 qualifiers, of which 11 have finished with -2.5 goals and eight with -1.5. Furthermore, Ireland have drawn 8/10 qualifying matches since 2006 against teams ranked 11-50, including 4/5 at home, with eight of the matches having -2.5 goals.

Russia have had -2.5 goals in 11/16 away qualifiers and in 5/6 home or away, as well as in 5/9 trips to teams ranked 11-50 since 2002. Furthermore, Russia have drawn half their last six trips to 11-50 ranked sides and 6/14 home or away.

Recommendation: Drawn match at 3.2, Stan James

Group C

Serbia (27) v Estonia (96)

Serbia are unbeaten at home in 25 qualifying games and they’ve won 9/11 home matches against teams ranked 51+ since 2002, with five W/Ws and six wins by two-clear goals. However, most of those last 25 home qualifiers have been low-scoring affairs as 18 have finished with -2.5 goals.

Estonia have lost 8/11 away qualifiers since 2008 as they’ve conceded 31 goals whilst failing to find the net themselves on six occasions. This awful defensive record has resulted in seven of those matches featuring three or more goals with five having +3.5 goals. Looking at their competitive away record against teams ranked 11-75 Estonia have lost eight straight matches while conceding 27 goals with six L/L doubles and six defeats by two-clear goals, and seven of their last 10 such matches have seen +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: No bet

N Ireland (49) v Italy (11)

Northern Ireland have won 8/10 home qualifiers and they’ve had at least three goals in eight of the last 12 such matches. Furthermore, they’re unbeaten at home against top-25 ranked sides since 2004 with four wins in six matches.

Italy are unbeaten in 11 away qualifiers, with nine wins and seven +2.5 goal matches. Furthermore, they’re unbeaten in seven away qualifiers against teams ranked 26-75 with five wins.

Recommendation: No bet
 

Group D

Albania (82) v Bosnia-Herzegovina (45)

Albania won their opening home qualifier against Luxembourg 1-0 and are a fairly low scoring side with 12 of their last 17 home qualifiers having -2.5 goals. Furthermore, they’ve had -2.5 goals in 7/9 home qualifiers against teams ranked 26-75 since 2002 with just five goals in the last four such matches, and their solid defence has ensured they’ve lost just three of these nine matches

Bosnia have good recent away form in qualifiers with four wins in their last five and since 2006 they’ve won 3/5 trips to teams ranked 51-125, with all three wins coming to-nil. More significantly, four of these matches finished with -2.5 goals.

Recommendation: No bet

France (33) v Romania (42)

France got their qualifying campaign off to a difficult start as they lost at home to Belarus and they’ve had -2.5 goals in 9/11 qualifying games as they’ve found scoring difficult in the past couple of years. At home since 2006, France have had -2.5 goals in 11/18 qualifiers, including in 9/11 matches against teams ranked 26-75, eight of which have been goalless at the interval and only five of which have been won by the home side.

Romania have begun with two draws and have had -2.5 goals in 10/14 away qualifiers (six -1.5 goals) and been goalless at half-time in half of their last 12 such matches. Furthermore, they’ve lost only half of their six competitive trips to teams ranked 11-50 since 2002 as half of the matches have finished with fewer than three goals.

Recommendation: HT 0-0 at 2.75, Unibet