Bayern Munich (Bettorlogic rank 7) v Inter Milan (4)

Introduction

History will be made on Saturday evening, as either Bayern Munich or Inter Milan will become the first team from Germany or Italy to win the treble; repeating Barcelona’s feat last year. Further, as both managers have previously won this competition, Louis Van Gaal with Ajax in 1995 and Jose Mourinho with Porto in 2004, one will become just the third boss to manage two different clubs to European Cup success.

Since the inception of the first round group stage in the 1994-95, no final has been contested between two sides who finished second in their group until now – Bayern finished six points behind Bordeaux in Group A, while Inter trailed Barca by two points in Group F.

Previous Finals

The last time that a German side faced an Italian side in the final was Borussia Dortmund’s 3-1 defeat of Juventus at the Olympic Stadium, Munich.

Bayern Munich have won five of their 11 games against teams with a Bettorlogic rank of 1-10 since 2006/07 with four defeats, although three of the losses came on the road. Eight of the 11 games have seen at least three goals and five have featured four or more.

Over the same period, Inter Milan have lost-to-nil in six of their 12 games against top-10 ranked teams, although their three victories came in the knockout stage this year (two wins against Chelsea, one against Barcelona). Five of Inter’s last 10 Champions League matches when they have conceded have contained more than a brace of scores.

Interestingly, there is a bias towards lower-ranked teams in the Champions League final. Six of the last 15 games have been won in 90 minutes by the lower-ranked side and just four by the higher-ranked team.

Since 1994/95, five of the 15 finals have gone to penalties, making the ‘Penalty Shootout – Yes’ bet at 5.50 an attractive option. Interestingly, none of the 15 finals have been settled in extra time. Three of the five shootouts have been won by the lower-ranked team.

Just three of the 15 finals have been goalless at the interval, but on each of those occasions the game ended with fewer than two scores. Eight of the 15 games have seen at least three goals.

Another interesting characteristic of previous finals is that on just one of the last eight instances that either side has led by exactly one goal at the interval, the game has been tied at 90 minutes. Should Inter or Bayern be one goal to the good at the break, we would recommend laying the full-time draw.

Form

Inter Milan have had the ‘better’ season. The Italian’s gained 82 points from their 38 domestic games (2.16 PPG) whereas Bayern picked up just 70 from 34 (2.06 PPG). Fortunately, for Munich fans, the team with the better domestic PPG has lifted the trophy in just five of the last 15 finals.

Inter have undoubtedly had the harder run to the final. They were drawn against last season’s all-conquering Barcelona in both the group stages and the semi-finals with knockout clashes against CSKA Moscow and Chelsea sandwiched in between. Bayern, meanwhile, benefited from an extremely controversial Miroslav Klose goal in the last 16 against Fiorentina before Arjen Robben scored a magnificent volley late-on at Old Trafford in the quarter-final. Despite losing their star-man Franck Ribery in the early stages of the first-leg of their semi-final with Lyon (the Frenchman also sits out this game) the Bavarians barely broke sweat in a comfy 4-0 aggregate victory.

Wesley Schneider was brought off after 73 minutes of Sunday’s decisive 1-0 victory over Siena. The winger complained of cramps, but he is expected to be 100% fit for Saturday which will offer him a chance to face his fellow ex-Real Madrid winger Robben for the first time since they left the Bernabeu. Further, Thiago Motta is suspended after his sending-off at the Nou Camp – although it could be argued Inter played better with 10-men than 11, despite their defensive attitude – and Ivan Cordoba is doubtful. Cordoba was on the bench for legs of the semi-final while Serbian Dejan Stankovic is a more-than-able replacement for Motta.

Bayern have just one selection problem, but it is a large one. As previously mentioned, Ribery will sit this game out. Domestically, they have struggled in big games without him. Since 2007/08, Bayern have won 12 of their 18 Bundesliga games against top-six opposition whereas they have been successful in just three of the nine he has missed.

Our View

In conclusion, the newly-crowned Italian champions have had a better season than their opponents, are higher-ranked and can field a team much closer to optimum. However, statistics show that the first two criteria aren’t a good indicator in finals and Inter’s form against top-10 teams – withstanding their excellent efforts so far this campaign – is worrying. Bayern will miss Ribery, but we feel they will still score.

Recommendations: Over 2.5 Goals 2.58, Betfair
                                     Back Penalty Shootout – Yes 5.50, William Hill
                                
In-play Recommendations: Lay Drawn match at half-time if either side is leading by exactly one goal
                                                   Back Draw in extra-time