Difference between when a goal is scored 11-20 mins compared to 0-10 mins.
In the majority of leagues +1.5 goal matches decrease by about 3% to around 90% depending on whether a goal is scored from 11-20 minutes compared to 0-10 minutes. In Ligue 1 the percentages are virtually the same but in the Bundesliga there have been a greater number of +1.5 goals (3% increase) when the goal is scored 11-20 mins.
It’s a similar situation with +2.5 except in Serie A where the difference is 72% in the first period compared to 64% in the second and in Eredivisie where it falls from 79% to 70% and the two leagues have a similar fall for matches with three or more goals – Serie A from 49% to 40% and Eredivisie 57% to 51%. The greatest discrepancy occurs in the Bundesliga where 58% of matches have resulted in three or more goals when a goal has been scored in the first period, but only 40% when that goal has been scored in minutes 11-20.
Goal scored 11-20 minutes.
Apart from the Premier League where there is a 1% difference, in all the other leagues there have been a greater percentage of +1.5 goals when the away team has scored first with the most marked difference being the 11% increase in Ligue 1. Unusually for the low scoring league, the 96% of away matches in Ligue 1 that have produced +1.5 goals when the away team has scored equals the Bundesliga as the highest of all the leagues.
Normality is restored in the +2.5 goal matches in which Ligue 1 returns 63% and, in common with most leagues, where there’s a 3-5% increase when the first goal is scored by the away team. In Serie A there is a marked difference when the away team has netted first – 71% +2.5 compared to 60% when it’s the home team. The most productive league when away teams score is La Liga with a 75% +2.5 matches, closely followed by the Bundesliga 74% and Eredivisie 73%.
Whether it’s the home or the away team scoring, Eredivisie comfortably has the highest
+3.5 goals percentage with an overall return of 51% and 54% when the visitors have scored. In the Premier League and Bundesliga, there have been more +3.5 goal matches when the hosts have scored, 43%-38% and 42%-38% respectively, which brings them close to the Ligue 1 return of 34% when the away team has scored.
| |
Home Team Scores |
Away team scores |
All teams |
| League |
Mins |
+1.5 |
+2.5 |
+3.5 |
+1.5 |
+2.5 |
+3.5 |
+1.5 |
+2.5 |
+3.5 |
| Prem |
11-20 |
1.11 |
1.45 |
2.33 |
1.12 |
1.47 |
2.63 |
1.11 |
1.47 |
2.44 |
| Serie A |
11-20 |
1.16 |
1.67 |
2.7 |
1.14 |
1.41 |
2.27 |
1.15 |
1.56 |
2.5 |
| La Liga |
11-20 |
1.14 |
1.49 |
2.44 |
1.08 |
1.33 |
2.08 |
1.11 |
1.43 |
2.27 |
| Bundesliga |
11-20 |
1.06 |
1.39 |
2.38 |
1.04 |
1.35 |
2.63 |
1.05 |
1.37 |
2.5 |
| Ligue 1 |
11-20 |
1.18 |
1.67 |
2.94 |
1.04 |
1.59 |
2.94 |
1.11 |
1.64 |
2.94 |
| Eredivisie |
11-20 |
1.1 |
1.47 |
2.56 |
1.06 |
1.37 |
1.85 |
1.09 |
1.43 |
1.96 |
Odds conversion based on % return
Key Stats
- There is a notable difference for +2.5 goals in Serie A if the first goal is scored between 11-20 mins compared to 0-10. In the second period it is only 64% as opposed to 72% in the first and when the home team has been the first scorer it falls from 71% to 60%.
- 96% of Ligue 1 matches have finished +1.5 when the away team has scored between 11-20 mins and that matches the return from a far higher scoring league - the Bundesliga.
- 51% of Eredivisie matches have finished with +3.5 goals when the first goal period is 11-20 mins compared to an average of 41% for the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga.
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