Football / Analysis / Time Of 1St Goal 11 20 Mins

Time of 1st goal 11-20 mins

How likely are matches to have +2.5 or +3.5 goals when the first goal is scored during this period and how does that vary across the major leagues.

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Difference between when a goal is scored 11-20 mins compared to 0-10 mins.

In the majority of leagues +1.5 goal matches decrease by about 3% to around 90% depending on whether a goal is scored from 11-20 minutes compared to 0-10 minutes. In Ligue 1 the percentages are virtually the same but in the Bundesliga there have been a greater number of +1.5 goals (3% increase) when the goal is scored 11-20 mins.

It’s a similar situation with +2.5 except in Serie A where the difference is 72% in the first period compared to 64% in the second and in Eredivisie where it falls from 79% to 70% and the two leagues have a similar fall for matches with three or more goals – Serie A from 49% to 40% and Eredivisie 57% to 51%. The greatest discrepancy occurs in the Bundesliga where 58% of matches have resulted in three or more goals when a goal has been scored in the first period, but only 40% when that goal has been scored in minutes 11-20.

Goal scored 11-20 minutes.

Apart from the Premier League where there is a 1% difference, in all the other leagues there have been a greater percentage of +1.5 goals when the away team has scored first with the most marked difference being the 11% increase in Ligue 1. Unusually for the low scoring league, the 96% of away matches in Ligue 1 that have produced +1.5 goals when the away team has scored equals the Bundesliga as the highest of all the leagues.

Normality is restored in the +2.5 goal matches in which Ligue 1 returns 63% and, in common with most leagues, where there’s a 3-5% increase when the first goal is scored by the away team. In Serie A there is a marked difference when the away team has netted first – 71% +2.5 compared to 60% when it’s the home team. The most productive league when away teams score is La Liga with a 75% +2.5 matches, closely followed by the Bundesliga 74% and Eredivisie 73%.

Whether it’s the home or the away team scoring, Eredivisie comfortably has the highest   
+3.5 goals percentage with an overall return of 51% and 54% when the visitors have scored. In the Premier League and Bundesliga, there have been more +3.5 goal matches when the hosts have scored, 43%-38% and 42%-38% respectively, which brings them close to the Ligue 1 return of 34% when the away team has scored.

 

  Home Team Scores Away team scores All teams
League Mins +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.5
Prem 11-20 1.11 1.45 2.33 1.12 1.47 2.63 1.11 1.47 2.44
Serie A 11-20 1.16 1.67 2.7 1.14 1.41 2.27 1.15 1.56 2.5
La Liga 11-20 1.14 1.49 2.44 1.08 1.33 2.08 1.11 1.43 2.27
Bundesliga 11-20 1.06 1.39 2.38 1.04 1.35 2.63 1.05 1.37 2.5
Ligue 1 11-20 1.18 1.67 2.94 1.04 1.59 2.94 1.11 1.64 2.94
Eredivisie 11-20 1.1 1.47 2.56 1.06 1.37 1.85 1.09 1.43 1.96

 

 Odds conversion based on % return


Key Stats

 

  • There is a notable difference for +2.5 goals in Serie A if the first goal is scored between 11-20 mins compared to 0-10. In the second period it is only 64% as opposed to 72% in the first and when the home team has been the first scorer it falls from 71% to 60%.
  • 96% of Ligue 1 matches have finished +1.5 when the away team has scored between 11-20 mins and that matches the return from a far higher scoring league - the Bundesliga.
  • 51% of Eredivisie matches have finished with +3.5 goals when the first goal period is 11-20 mins compared to an average of  41% for the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga.  



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